Maldives Initiates Talks with India to Re-evaluate Military Presence
In the ever-evolving landscape of international relations, the Indian Ocean archipelago of Maldives finds itself at the centre of a geopolitical tug-of-war. President-elect Mohamed Muizzu, who recently assumed office following a political transition, has taken a significant step by initiating negotiations with India to reassess its military presence in the Maldives. This move holds implications not only for the Maldives but also for the broader dynamics of influence in the Indian Ocean region.
The Maldives, known for its stunning coral reefs and azure waters, has been the focus of strategic interest for major global players due to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. This tropical paradise has become a battleground for influence between India and China, both of which seek to secure their interests in this vital maritime corridor.
Muizzu, has announced plans to negotiate with India to remove its military presence from the island nation. In an interview with Bloomberg News published on Friday, Muizzu stated that talks were already underway with the Indian government and have been “very successful.”
This move aligns with a key campaign pledge made by Muizzu, who defeated the incumbent President Ibrahim Solih last month. Solih had maintained close ties with India during his tenure. Approximately 70 Indian military personnel are currently stationed in Maldives, maintaining radar systems, conducting surveillance flights. Additionally, Indian warships played a role in patrolling the Maldives’ exclusive economic zone.
India’s Military Presence in Maldives
India established its military presence in Maldives in the 1980s at the request of then-President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. The radar systems and air surveillance aid Maldives in policing its 1,000 km exclusive economic zone. India sees Maldives as vital to its security interests in the Indian Ocean region.
However, in recent years Maldives gravitated toward China under former President Abdulla Yameen. Yameen signed onto Belt and Road projects and allowed Chinese state companies to develop infrastructure. But the debt burden from Chinese loans also grew substantially.
When Solih took power in 2018, he worked to reset ties with India. Last year, Maldives signed a “contract for India Out” to develop naval bases and radars, seen as a setback for Beijing.
However, President-elect Mohamed Muizzu’s recent election victory marked a shift in the country’s political landscape.
Muizzu campaigned on a promise to reevaluate the presence of Indian military personnel in the Maldives, a pledge that resonated with a segment of the population. He has stated that Maldives seeks a “mutually beneficial” relationship with India. But removing the military presence likely signals a shift back towards Beijing. Muizzu dismissed concerns that China would replace Indian troops, stating no foreign militaries would be allowed basing rights.
The move has potential implications on the broader geopolitical landscape and has set the stage for a reconfiguration of the geopolitical chessboard in the Indian Ocean. India has raised alarms over what it sees as growing Chinese presence in its backyard. Maldives straddles major East-West shipping routes and sits just 700 km from India’s Lakshadweep islands. Much depends on how India responds. It could choose to respect Maldives’ sovereignty and back off militarily. Or New Delhi may double down and pursue other ways to exert influence.
Implications
- Geopolitical Balance: Muizzu’s decision to engage in negotiations with India to remove its military presence signals a potential shift in the Maldives’ geopolitical alignment. It raises questions about the nation’s stance between the competing interests of India and China. The outcome of these negotiations could tip the balance of influence in the region.
- Mutually Beneficial Relationship: Muizzu’s emphasis on fostering a “mutually beneficial” bilateral relationship with India underscores the desire for a partnership that respects Maldives’ sovereignty and interests. This approach aims to ensure that the Maldives benefits from its relationships with major powers while maintaining autonomy over its decisions.
- Exclusion of Third-Party Military Presence: President-elect Muizzu’s assurance that Indian soldiers would not be replaced by troops from other countries reinforces the Maldives’ commitment to sovereignty and non-alignment. This stance is intended to dispel concerns that the Maldives might allow other foreign military actors, such as China, to establish a foothold in the country.
- China-India Rivalry: The Maldives’ strategic importance in the Indian Ocean has turned it into a theatre for competition between China and India. Both nations have invested significantly in the Maldives, contributing to infrastructure development and extending loans. Muizzu’s decision adds another layer to this rivalry, potentially reshaping the dynamics of engagement in the region.
- Impact on Indian Ocean Security: The negotiations between the Maldives and India regarding military presence could have repercussions on the broader security landscape of the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean is a vital maritime corridor, and any changes in military alliances or arrangements in the Maldives may impact regional security dynamics.
- Economic Considerations: Beyond the military aspect, the negotiations may also delve into economic cooperation and trade agreements. The Maldives’ reliance on tourism and its vulnerability to climate change make it essential for the nation to secure economic partnerships that ensure sustainability and resilience.
President-elect Mohamed Muizzu’s decision to engage in negotiations with India to reassess its military presence in the Maldives carries significant implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape. It reflects the delicate balancing act that small nations like the Maldives must perform in navigating the competing interests of major global powers.
The outcome of these negotiations will not only determine the Maldives’ future course but will also influence the broader dynamics of influence and security in the Indian Ocean. As the talks progress, observers will closely watch how this pivotal chapter in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean unfolds.
Originally published in Diplomacy & Politics.
