Ruptured Safeguards: Russia’s Withdrawal from the CTBT Amid the Ukraine Crisis

The nuanced game of nuclear diplomacy is showing signs of fraying at the edges as Russia inches towards withdrawing from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This development comes amidst the ongoing crisis in Ukraine that has already strained Russia’s relations with the West. The unfolding scenario hints at a potential shift in nuclear policies and an escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Legislative Steps Towards Withdrawal

Russia’s legislative machinery moved swiftly to approve a bill that revokes the ratification of the CTBT in Russia. This bill, now awaiting President Vladimir Putin’s signature, has journeyed through the upper house Federation Council and the lower house State Duma, gathering unanimous approval and accelerated votes respectively. This legislative backing portrays a unified political front in Russia concerning its stance on the CTBT, especially in the light of recent events.

Russia’s intent to withdraw from the treaty is seen as a mirror to the United States’ position, which, despite being a signatory, never ratified the treaty. This move, as announced on October 6, is perceived by some as a reaction to the US’s nuclear posture. However, the undercurrents suggest a deeper geopolitical play, influenced significantly by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

While the United States said it was “disturbed” by a Russian envoy’s announcement that Moscow will reverse its ratification of a 1996 treaty that banned the testing of nuclear weapons, Russia withdrawal from the treaty places Moscow on ‘equal footing’ with US, which has not ratified the pact.

Uncertain Future of Nuclear Testing

The revocation brings along a cloud of uncertainty regarding the resumption of nuclear weapons testing by Russia. Despite this legislative move, both President Putin and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov have exhibited a cautious approach towards resuming nuclear testing. Their stance seems to hinge largely on the US’s actions in the nuclear arena, emphasizing a reactive rather than a proactive approach towards nuclear testing.

The US administration has expressed its dismay over Russia’s move, deeming it a threat to the global norm against nuclear explosive testing. This, coupled with a recent chemical explosion at a US test site in Nevada, indicates a subtle yet significant back-and-forth in nuclear signaling between the two nations. Ryabkov’s comments about the explosion being a ‘political signal’ echo the intricate dance of nuclear diplomacy that’s playing out.

With the CTBT on the verge of being abandoned, the spotlight now turns to the New START treaty, the last bilateral nuclear accord between the US and Russia. This treaty, already suspended by Russia in February, stands as a fragile pillar of arms control, set to expire in 2026. The dialogue between the two nations on strategic stability and arms control seems to be in a deadlock, awaiting a shift in the fundamental dynamics of their relationship.

The withdrawal from the CTBT by Russia is not merely a standalone event but a reflection of the broader geopolitical tensions that are currently at play. It underlines the intertwined nature of arms control agreements with the prevailing political climate. As the Ukraine crisis continues to evolve, the repercussions on nuclear diplomacy are likely to be profound, warranting a keen eye on the unfolding nuclear narrative between the major powers.

Originally published in Diplomacy & Politics.