T3PtV (True 3-Point Shooting Value)


I was busy arguing Wesley Matthews’ offensive value

in a rabidly anti-Matthews MavsMoneyball.com comment section when it hit me: There’s no true quantification of the best (read: most productive) 3-point shooters.

Sure, there are metrics to find the best field goal makers weighted for 3s (Effective FG Percentage), and the most efficient general scorers (True Shooting Percentage), but what if I don’t care about two-pointers and free throws in the context of my argument?

For example; in 2016–17, on a Mavericks team devoid of playmaking, Matthews was asked to create off the dribble. The results weren’t great. Wes is a poor playmaker off the dribble, and generally a putrid overall 2-point shooter; <40% on shots inside the arc and outside of 3ft.

That said, he made 2.4 3-pointers a game on .363 shooting. Not bad. Maybe he could have a more valuable role on a differently constructed team, one on which he’s not asked to be a playmaker. Purely stretching the floor on offense and landing a solid percentage of his high volume of 3-point bombs would be a productive niche in Rick Carlisle’s offense. Detractors are quick point to his .363 3-point percentage as maybe a brisk pedestrian, but surely not elite level shooting. I’ll attempt to show how volume can trump elite percentages when weighing shooting appropriately.


True 3-Point Shooting Value is Born

Other 3 point metrics fall short in various ways. Volume of 3s made per game or 3s made/per 36 is misleading. In this model, any gunner that shoots the most could be crowned ‘best’ or ‘most productive’.

So percentage is king, right? I mean, you could easily argue that the best 3-point shooters are those that shoot the best percentage. But is a .400 shooter on 2.5 attempts per 36 as valuable as a .380 shooter at 6 attempts per 36? I didn’t think so, but I couldn’t find a metric to support my thesis. So I made one.

I was attempting to craft a Hollinger-esque algorithm that took into account the openness of the shooter, off-the-dribble vs. spot up, shot clock, corner vs. break, etc, etc; but that quickly spiraled into a mess of granularity that I don’t have the data science background to support in earnest.

Thus, I settled on a simple formulation that even I couldn’t f*** up:

(3-Point Field Goals Made/Per Minute) * (3-Point Field Goal % ) * (20)

Kinda perfect for the limited scope, huh? It takes into account volume and percentage while controlling for rate. Honestly, it’s too damn simple and obvious, and 95% of me feels like this metric is readily available on one, if not many, high-traffic websites. Alas, I couldn’t find it, so here we are.

In Wesley Matthews’ case, his .363 percentage is decent, but its his average of 2.4 made per his 34 minutes per game that brings him up to a healthy 0.506 T3PtV, good for 40th in the league. Not elite, but no slouch.


There’s also a ton of context missing

Like I had mentioned, there are a lot of variables thrown to the wind (how do we value players who’s 3 point gravity is so great it opens up the floor for others?), but it’s a better raw calculator than we’ve got.

Let’s be clear, it’s only a very slightly more effective analytical tool than merely glancing at raw volume made per game, glancing at minutes per game, and glancing at raw percentage. But I’m sick of these low volume shooters getting all the praise at the expense of my gunners (This one’s for you, JR!).

So here it is, the first ever ranking of NBA Players by True 3-Point Shooting Value (T3PTV) for the 2016–2017 NBA Regular Season (Min. 100 3pt fgm).


  1. Stephen Curry, GSW — 1.009
  2. Troy Daniels, MEM — 0.905
  3. Nick Young, LAL — 0.884
  4. Klay Thompson, GSW — 0.837
  5. Kyle Korver, ATL/CLE — 0.832
  6. Channing Frye, CLE — 0.801
  7. Eric Gordon, HOU — 0.787
  8. CJ miles, IND — 0.785
  9. J.J. Reddick, LAC — 0.784
  10. Ryan Anderson, HOU — 0.777
  11. Wayne Ellington, MIA — 0.751
  12. Isaiah Thomas, BOS — 0.723
  13. Kyle Lowry, TOR — 0.709
  14. Kemba Walker, CHA — 0.699
  15. Patty Mills, SA — 0.695
  16. Bradley Beal, WAS — 0.671
  17. Langston Galloway, NYK — 0.626
  18. Mirza Teletovic, MIL — 0.625
  19. James Harden, HOU— 0.617
  20. Buddy Hield, NOP/SAC — 0.614
  21. Mike Conley, MEM — 0.608
  22. Lou Williams, LAL/HOU — 0.597
  23. Maurice Speights, LAC — 0.595
  24. Damian Lillard, POR— 0.588
  25. Kevin Love, CLE — 0.574
  26. Seth Curry, DAL — 0.574
  27. Paul George, IND— 0.569
  28. Kyrie Irving, CLE — 0.562
  29. CJ McCollum, POR — 0.556
  30. Joe Ingles, UTA — 0.551
  31. Jae Crowder, BOS — 0.536
  32. Zach Lavine, MIN — 0.531
  33. Rodney Hood, UTA — 0.531
  34. Paul George, IND — 0.530
  35. Allen Crabbe, POR — 0.529
  36. Terrance Ross, TOR/ORL — 0.527
  37. DeAngelo Russell, LAL — 0.526
  38. Nikola Mirotic, CHI — 0.525
  39. Bojan Bogdonavic, BRK — 0.508
  40. Wesley Matthews, DAL — 0.506
  41. Gary Harris Jr, DEN — 0.504
  42. Tony Snell, MIL — 0.501
  43. Danny Green, SA — 0.494
  44. Tim Hardaway Jr, ATL — 0.493
  45. Otto Porter, WAS — 0.493
  46. Russell Westbrook, OKC — 0.490
  47. Trevor Ariza, HOU — 0.473
  48. Joe Johnson, UTA — 0.473
  49. Gordon Hayward, UTA — 0.471
  50. Vince Carter, MEM — 0.470
  51. Ersan Illyasova, ATL/OKC/PHI — 0.468
  52. Danillo Gallinari, DEN — 0.459
  53. Avery bradley, BOS — 0.459
  54. Kawhi Leornard, SAS — 0.452
  55. Nick Stauskas, PHI — 0.443
  56. Jamal Murray, DEN — 0.436
  57. Robert Covington, PHI — 0.431
  58. Carmelo Anthony, DEN — 0.428
  59. Kevin Durant, GSW — 0.424
  60. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET — 0.423
  61. Robin Lopez, BRK— 0.418
  62. Marco Belinelli, CHA — 0.414
  63. Victor Oladipo, OKC — 0.412
  64. Patrick Beverly, HOU — 0.409
  65. Sean Kilpatrick, BKN — 0.408
  66. Evan Fournier, ORL — 0.407
  67. Jameer Nelson, DEN — 0.402
  68. Austin Rivers, LAC — 0.400
  69. Serge Ibaka, ORL/TOR — 0.400
  70. DeMarre Carrol, TOR — 0.396
  71. Devin Booker, PHX — 0.391
  72. Frank Kaminsky, CHA — 0.389
  73. Jamal Crawford, LAC — 0.387
  74. Goran Dragic, MIA — 0.385
  75. Demarcus Cousins, SAC/NOP — 0.384
  76. Marvin Williams, CHA — 0.378
  77. Kristaps Porzingis, NYK — 0.369
  78. Courtney Lee, NYK — 0.353
  79. Nicolas Batum, CHA — 0.343
  80. Wilson Chandler, DEN — 0.338
  81. Jrue Holiday, NOP — 0.325
  82. LeBron James, CLE — 0.322
  83. Jordan Clarkson, LAL — 0.322
  84. Eric Bledsoe, PHX — 0.320
  85. Marc Gasol, MEM — 0.319
  86. Dario Saric, PHI — 0.309
  87. Marcus Morris, DET — 0.304
  88. Tobias Harris, DET — 0.295
  89. Dennis Schroeder, ATL — 0.273
  90. Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN — 0.244
  91. Andrew Wiggins, MIN — 0.240
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