Biden’s Lead on Trump Will Beat Clinton’s By 5 Million Votes, Here’s Why
Analysis of Pew, Marist, Monmouth, and Election Project data shows this. Probably.
As of today, early votes have surpassed 59.3 million, and 43% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, as tallied by the Michael McDonald’s Election Project. Early voting will eclipse previous years, and total votes cast could easily be the highest ever recorded. In 2016, the total number of early or absentee votes was 46.1 million in 38 states for which there is data, according to Catalist, as reported in CNN.
In the final days leading up to November 3rd, we can use reports from the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, the Election Project, Pew Research, Monmouth, FiveThirtyEight, Hill/Harris and previous turnouts to estimate the total popular vote count for each candidate.
Using those surveys and historical trends, it looks like Joe Biden will claim the lion’s share of early votes and maintain his advantage through the entire voting period to exceed the votes Hillary Clinton received in 2016, by about 8 million votes. Probably.
What do we (think) we know?
We don’t know how each household has voted, but in some cases, we do know their party affiliation, if…
