Election 2020
Biden’s $365 Million Fundraising Record Spells Trouble for Trump
Most signs point to a Biden-Harris victory this November.
It is not often that I am compelled to enter the political predictions game. The nature of modern electoral politics has become so unpredictable and susceptible to change that few people truly think they know, with all certainty, which presidential candidate will win in November.
That being said, it is difficult to ignore the massive lead Joe Biden has on President Trump. The Democratic presidential nominee, in coordination with funds from the Democratic National Committee and other party campaign arms, has raised a record shattering $364.5 million in August. To put this number in perspective, no candidate has ever raised this much money in one month in United States history.
The Biden campaign and affiliates raised a significant majority of the funds, approximately $205 million, from small online donations. It is obvious that this huge haul by the Democratic nominee is a result of both the virtual convention and announcement of Senator Kamala Harris joining the ticket as the vice presidential nominee. The campaign stated that they raised $48 million of the August funds in the two days that followed the announcement.
Additionally, the Clinton campaign raised $143 million in August of 2016, so Biden has more than doubled the previous Democratic fundraising for this month. Even the historic and massively successful candidate that was Barack Obama never raised as much as Biden has this past month. Obama used to have the record at nearly $200 million in September of 2008, but Biden has knocked that figure clear out of the water.
In July, the Trump campaign and RNC raised $165 million to the Biden campaign’s $140 million. Since both major parties had their virtual conventions in August, the Republicans will undoubtedly see higher numbers as we approach the final stretch of campaigning in comparison to months previous. Even still, most signs point to the Democrats maintaining this new record (we are still waiting on the Republicans to release their fundraising numbers).
The biggest sign that the Trump campaign is worried about this figure is because they wrote it in black and white in a call-to-action email to their supporters. The email reads, “I’ll never be intimidated by these Radical Socialists and their dirty MEGA DONOR MONEY, but I can’t ignore that $350,000,000 in ONE MONTH is a massive amount of cash.”
As I stated before, I am no fan of making predictions in a political climate as volatile as this one; however, this fundraising number seems to be the final nail in Trump’s coffin. The Biden campaign is raising significantly more than Clinton was able to during the previous election, and he enjoys much higher polling numbers both nationally and in swing-states.
The latest FiveThirtyEight averages from all relevant polling shows Biden leading in every closely-watched state with most of them being beyond the margin of error:
New Hampshire: +7.9 Biden
Michigan:+7.9 Biden
Nevada: +6.3 Biden
Wisconsin: +6.2 Biden
Minnesota: +5.9 Biden
Pennsylvania: +4.7 Biden
Florida: +4.2 Biden
Arizona:+3.9 Biden
North Carolina: +0.9 Biden
Further, nationwide polling averages by FiveThirtyEight show Biden leading by 6 points, and that number has remained virtually unchanged since June 1st. Although incumbent presidents usually see the race tighten in their favor as Election Day approaches, time is severely running out for the Trump campaign to close the gap.
These polling leads, paired with impressive fundraising by the Democrats this month, position them for a win. The preconditions of victory are present for the Biden-Harris ticket, both in these advantages and Trump being the current president through the worst economic downturn in a century. Thus, Biden is on track for a substantial victory.
