Blue Wave 2020 Prediction: Dems Poised to Gain Control of the Senate
In July and September, I predicted the Democrats would flip the Senate in 2021. Based on October polls, I’m even more positive.
In early July, I presented the original version of this thesis on how and why the Democratic Party would flip the U.S. Senate this November. I updated that prediction in late September in this Medium essay. Now that we are just four days until Election Day, I felt it was time to make a final assessment based on all the recent news developments, polling data, and my own political instincts.
Having outlined in previous essays the many reasons why this year’s Senate elections are the most important in decades, in this piece I’ll just stick to the updated race assessments. Again, there are 23 Republican Senate seats up for re-election in 2020. Back in July, I felt that 11 of them would definitely stay Red as “Solid Republican” seats. In September, I dropped that number to nine, leaving 14 races that ranged from “Likely Republican” to “Likely Democratic” with some “Leaning” one way or the other or considered “Toss-Ups.” Most pundits agree that of the two Democratic Senators up for re-election (Gary Peters in Michigan and Doug Jones in Alabama), the Alabama seat is considered “flip-able” for…
