Can US Military Action Undermine Iranian Influence in the Middle East?
We entered 2020 by talking about US-Iranian relations. The killing of Qasim Soleimani by the American forces in Iraq and Iran’s missile attacks against the US military bases concerned many with the possibility of a new war in an already unstable region.
For observers of the moves of the US foreign policy in the last three years, the events are not surprising. The US government has pursued policies to roll back Iranian influence in the Middle East.
The US mediated between the Arab states and Israel to better coordinate the anti-Iranian policies in the region.
With the new developments, a possible US military action against Iran in the region is on the public debate. Will such a move decrease Iranian influence in the Middle East?
Simply put, such a move cannot prevent the spread of Iranian influence, and it creates more problems than it solves.
A military action undermines the regional efforts to balance Iran
First, the US move against Iran will change alliance dynamics in the region. Such a move will make countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Israel happy; because these countries consider Iran a clear threat and have a close relationship with the US.
However, an external attack will probably make other regional rivals of Iran, who are not happy with increasing American influence in the region, overlook their differences with Iran.
Russia and Turkey, for example, will not be pleased with an external military intervention. Although Russia and Turkey have substantial differences with Iran, a possible American action against Iran may make those differences disappear and lead to more cooperation among these states.
Russia advanced its position in the region since 2014, so it will not welcome an increasing American influence. It will probably work with Iran to restrain the US influence the region.
Turkish leaders have strong ties with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. The increasing American influence will possibly be regarded as a limitation for Turkey’s Islamist allies in the region and will make Turkey closer to Iran.
While Iran is limited by the regional differences and rivalries today, a new anti-Iranian move can weaken the impact of regional balancers against Iran.
A military action deepens regional instability
Second, a US military action will possibly lead to the deepening of the existing conflicts in the Middle East and facilitate further political instability.
In Syria, Iran has been a significant supporter of the Asad regime through its financial and military aid. In the conflict in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iran are rivals. Further, Iran also has a considerable political and economic influence in places Iraq and Lebanon, where a significant Shia population exists.
By provoking further tension, a new anti-Iran move can increase the involvement of Iran and its potential future allies in these crises.
An external intervention can also boost the Shi’a-Sunni divide in the region. Iran has Shi’a supporters across the region such as Lebanese Hezbollah and communities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen.
In mobilizing the support for their cause, both Iran and its adversaries can capitalize on existing sectarian differences and escalate the conflicts in the region.
Military action can generate an Islamist backlash
Finally, a potential anti-Iran move can create an Islamist backlash across the region. The countries that are supportive of action against Iran are concerned with the rise of Islamism in the Middle East and took a strong stance against the Muslim Brotherhood recently.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who support a US action against Iran, declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization and repressed its members.
Because of their sectarian differences, the Islamists affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood would probably be concerned about the rise of Iran in the region. However, the American alliance with anti-Islamist countries may ring bells for the Islamists in the region and create a backlash, which can turn into violence in the long run.
In short, a military attack against Iran does not help the US downgrade Iranian influence in the region.
As history shows, external interventions are more likely to lead to despotism and political instability.
