COVID-19 In Developing Countries: The Vaccine Proxy War
Source: University of Minnesota
The worldwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign is accelerating rapidly. Millions around the world are being vaccinated daily. It is no surprise that the countries that are leading this vaccination campaign are the developed ones. Countries such as ones in the European Union, the United States, and China have purchased a majority of the vaccine supply. Developing countries, such as ones in Africa, the Middle East, and central Asia have been largely excluded from vaccine deliveries from companies such as Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. In the early of stages of vaccine production, the market has resembled an auction house. The highest bidders receive the largest shares, while those who are unable to match the high rollers are forced to make do with what is within their means. For many developing nations, what is within their means is next to nothing.
With many countries desperate for vaccine doses, developed nations have begun to realize an opportunity to gain considerable influence. Many United States consumers have been asking why the country is granting financial support to developing nations, the answer may surprise them. China has produced their own, cheaper albeit less effective, version of the vaccine. This vaccine is far easier to acquire than the sought-after Pfizer/BioNTtech and Moderna vaccines. China has been offering these vaccines to developing nations who, given their financial situation, have no choice but to acquiesce. China’s foray into developing nations is not solely for altruistic purposes; by sending vaccine doses, China is effectively expanding its influence into key geographic regions. Such influence could one day be traded for benefits such as permission to build military encampments, which could threaten United States hegemony.
The United States has countered with forays of their own. The Biden administration has recently pledged four billion dollars to vaccine campaigns in developing regions, which also may have motives other than ones of the altruistic nature. This vaccine proxy war of sorts could considerably impact the world economy.
The actions of developed nations are causing developing nations to vaccinate individuals at a significantly slower pace. Such a slow pace means that it will take even longer than expected for the world to emerge from the pandemic. For instance, developing nations are responsible for a significant portion of the world’s manufacturing industry. Without a sufficient number of effective vaccine doses, however, manufacturing will experience a much slower recovery from the pandemic than other industries which are more represented in developed countries. For example, let’s say Sri Lanka manufactures Company X’s newest apparel line, but the country has only received enough vaccine supply to vaccinate a tenth of its population (that is not an accurate estimate, merely for educational purposes). Then, COVID-19 surges occur in Sri Lankan factories. This event could halt production and harm worldwide supply chains, leading to product shortages and increased prices.
The increase in price that could occur from such an event (or an accumulation of similar events) could significantly slow worldwide economic growth. In regard to the vaccine proxy war discussed previously, if countries such as the United States and China only grant vaccine support to developing nations of geopolitical significance, what could happen to other, less geopolitically important developing nations? Ignoring such nations could lead to massive civil strife, which may cause violent conflict and large-scale emigration. Such emigration of unvaccinated persons into other developing nations who, while supported by vaccine efforts abroad, have yet to fully vaccinate their citizens. This chain reaction will significantly prolong the pandemic’s relevance and could slow the worldwide economic recovery.
Indeed, the current vaccine bidding war presents an economic as well as a moral failing. In the utopian ideal, vaccine quantities would be distributed to counties by proportion of the world’s population, regardless of financial capital. The current situation, however, is far from the utopian ideal. The impact of the current economic state of vaccine distribution may have catastrophic, long-term consequences for the world economy; many of these consequences, unfortunately, may not be realized until it is too late.
Originally published at http://thecentralpost.org.
