Even if Joe Biden Wins, Trump Might Still Be President
We could be walking into a storm in November
The safe transfer of power is an important but often overlooked facet of a stable democracy. It’s why some countries are able to have an election and accept the result, while dictatorships with a veneer of democratic practices rig votes (see Belarus) and some institutionally weak democracies have a tendency to depose their politicians in spectacular fashion (see Thailand). Among the many things that separate strong democracies from weak ones is the capability for its institutions and citizens to believe in the legitimacy of an election result, and for people to trust in it even if it doesn’t favor their candidate.
The last three and a half years have tested the limits of American institutions and the rule of law, but a more shocking test seems to be looming. In June a group of academics, former government and military officials, and political insiders gathered to game out what a contested election would look like on November 3rd. They predicted that things could get messy in the event of a close race stating: “All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” according to Rosa Brooks, a former Defence Department official, Georgetown law professor, and organizer of the exercise.
We are flooded with images of political unrest in Belarus, Hong Kong, and even in the U.S. Yet, things could continue to get worse in America as the foundations for doubting electoral results have already been laid.
It was all “fake news”, including losing by 3 million votes
The last few months have felt like years, but let’s go back a few centuries to October 19, 2016. It’s the last debate before people go to the polls on November 8th. Trump had previously expressed doubt in the electoral system, so this was the moment for him to clarify his position on if he would accept the result if he didn't win.
“I will keep you in suspense,” he said.
Of course, we now know the result: Hillary wins the popular vote by roughly 3 million votes, but Trump beats her in the electoral college.
Like in the past when these mixed results happen, the winner of the electoral college becomes president despite losing the popularity contest. It’s an imperfect system, but it’s the rules we all agree on for the safe passing of power.
It wasn’t what many people wanted, but the system worked and transferred power without a coup, political unrest, or a civil war. Yet, one person couldn’t let it go: Donald Trump.
He claimed that he won both the electoral college and the popular vote. In his mind, the latter wasn’t won because of vote tampering. An investigation is promised into his allegations by the White House.
Is Trump vindicated or is definitive proof that he won the popular vote provided? No, but we are left with those who feel like the system is rigged being validated by their president despite him winning, and belief in democratic institutions eroding.
How Trump may delegitimize this election
With the pandemic, voters are looking for options to vote safely such as by mail. Polling indicates that Biden voters are more likely to vote by mail than Trump supporters.
So what does Trump do? He attacks the legitimacy of mail-in voting. In April, he said that it would lead to fraud on a mass scale. More recently, he claims that ballots would be sent to Democrat supporting areas rather than Republican areas. Yet there is little proof to back up his claims of fraud and the electoral system favoring his rival.
The USPS will need additional funding to handle the influx of ballots, but he is working to block $25 billion that may be needed to deal with this surge. Trump’s latest pick for Postmaster General had indicated changes that would have hampered the timely return of ballots but walked it back. Yet, this confusion is not giving people much confidence in what’s going to happen.
Also, did you also know that Trump requested a mail-in ballot?
As Senator Palpatine would say, “Ironic.”
Like in 2016, Trump has built this rhetorical escape hatch if things don’t work in his favor. Anything but an absolute and overwhelming win by Biden may be open to debate.
Even then what if he just refuses to leave? Even when he won the electoral college last time he called into question 3 million votes that did not go his way. For a president who has broken many precedents, he set his own one that allows him to question a loss within that range.
The closer we get to the election the more that this is looking like a possibility. Bloomberg-funded data firm Hawkfish has said that on November 3rd in-person votes may be in favor of Trump, while Biden’s numbers may creep up as mail-in ballots are counted in what they call a “red mirage”.
Before every ballot is counted Trump could prematurely declare victory. As mail-in ballots shift the result he has already raised enough doubts in their legitimacy to cause a stir amongst his supporters.
While this campaign season has been chaotic, the weeks after November 3rd can get even messier.
Could I be overreacting? Possibly.
A lot of Trump’s controversies (and conspiracy theories) are like flashes in the pan that no one pays attention to after the next news story captivates his opposition’s ire. Remember when he said Obama was not born in America? That feels like millennia ago.
However, this could also be the slow ratcheting up of the absurdity of this administration and its breaking of institutional norms. Like a frog in a microwave, we might not know until it’s too little too late with the president refusing to leave the White House.
The last few years have been a test as the strength of American institutions on allowing those in power to operate within the law. How long until what Trump has been trying to bend finally breaks?
You may think politics is in its darkest timeline.
It could get a whole lot darker.
