Germany’s Zeitenwende and How it Could Change Europe
Germany is undergoing profound changes under Scholz, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What does this mean for the rest of Europe?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted significant changes in Europe’s approach to many policy areas. Germany’s new strategy is potentially the most significant and could signal new developments in European politics.
What is a ‘Zeitenwende’?
‘Zeitenwende’ is a German word which literally means ‘turn of time’ and generally means something to similar to a historic ‘turning point’. In politics, this is a significant term which is applied to a notably new era in the governance or policy approach.
Chancellor Scholz’s Speech
On 27th February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a significant speech. He marked 24th February, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, as a historic moment for Europe. His speech strongly condemned Putin’s actions, saying
The appalling injustice, the pain of the Ukrainian people — they affect us all very deeply.
Aside from calling for support for Ukraine, Scholz highlighted that this war is Putin’s war and that
He wants to fundamentally redefine the status quo within Europe in line with his own vision. And he has no qualms about using military force to do so.
A strong theme of the speech was historic change, marking this moment as a Zeitenwende for both Europe and Germany itself. He recognised that Germany must do more to protect its freedom and democracy, including funding new equipment, technology, and personnel through a 100 billion euro one-off sum in the 2022 federal budget.
Wandel durch Handel
A more active approach to security is highly significant for Germany. Since World War II, Germany has focused on non-military methods of influence.
For example, since the end of the Cold War, Germany has maintained the belief that Russia can be influenced and brought closer to Europe through trade including major energy deals. This philosophy has its own term: ‘Wandel durch Handel’ meaning ‘change through trade’.
But many are questioning whether this approach worked. Both Germany and France have held frequent talks with Putin for years including during the different phases of Russia and Ukraine’s conflicts. It doesn’t seem to have led to any change in Russia’s strategy.
Is Germany’s increased focus on military might a sign that ‘Wandel durch Handel’ is over? Not exactly. The idea of ‘change through trade’ is an enduring strategy which has shown some signs of success around the world.
For example, China’s policies have somewhat shifted since increasing international links and joining international institutions like the WTO. Equally, China’s continued authoritarianism and human rights abuses weaken this claim.
But Russia is a key reminder that these approaches are not always successful and that countries must have the hard power to back up soft power mechanisms. Arguably, Germany should have recognised that their strategy was not working sooner.
European Hard Power
Currently, Europe’s greatest power lies in its economy with the EU single market. This is the key way that Europe influences other countries, most obviously shown through recent sanctions against Russia.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine vastly increased concerns over Europe’s security. This has prompted debates over how reliant Europe is on the US and other allies for its security.
One of the more headline-grabbing suggestions has been for a European army. However, a more realistic prospect is an increase in defense spending across Europe, as shown by Germany’s recent shift.
Another development clearly linked to this is Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO. Alongside Germany’s shift, this is a sign that long-term strategies are being abandoned. Finland and Sweden’s neutral positions became untenable overnight on 24th February.
A further key example of great change within Europe is Denmark’s decision to end its opt-out of EU defence. This occurred through a referendum on 1st June in which 67% of Danes voted to end the opt-out. This is especially significant as the Danish public have repeatedly reaffirmed various opt-outs through previous referendums over the past two decades. The European Council on Foreign Relations has called this Denmark’s own Zeitenwende.
To summarise, Germany’s Zeitenwende suggests a wider European Zeitenwende. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted the axis of European politics and security, causing profound reflection.
Wandel durch Handel has proved to be fallible, although not entirely redundant. Europe’s leaders were too complacent in waiting for Russia to come around to Europe’s ways.
European security is a greater focus than it has been in decades. Germany is not alone in enacting seismic shifts in its approach: Finland, Sweden, and Denmark have also significantly changed their approaches. This suggests a Zeitenwende beyond Germany.
As Scholz said on 27th February:
I thank everyone who has taken a stance against Putin’s war — and who has gathered here in Berlin and elsewhere for peaceful demonstrations.
And I thank everyone who stands with us at this time for a free and open, fair and peaceful Europe.
We will defend it.
