Is Biden As Inevitable As He Seems? The State of the Democratic Civil War, Post-Biden

He’s gone and done it. After so much rumor-mongering and early mud-slinging, former senator and vice president Joe Biden has finally thrown his hat into the ring.

So is it his to lose? Short answer is yes. The long answer is he’s in a three-way tie, and might just have a ceiling of support that is fatal.

The New York Times did a great dive on the numbers of individual donors, amount raised, and polling numbers to try to numerically quantify the current leader. That’s one solid way to do it: I also fundamentally disagree that using that kind of hard data this far out will predict much of anything. Because this is a cultural-political experience, and not a rational, data-driven one, using numbers of donors and dollars to quantify political power is almost certain to be flawed.

But we can use that list to cull some of the candidates from the cloth — and rank our candidates according to the working notions of the still-developing Cultural-Political Theory framework.

First, if you’re a new reader, take a quick review of the outlines of the Democratic Civil War and the underlying rules of Cultural-Political Theory. And remember, this theory in this piece is being developed to predict the winner of the Democratic primary, not the…