Election 2020
Is the Republican Senate Majority in Trouble This November?
The blue wave might make an even bigger splash this year.
With all eyes on the White House this fall, one might wonder whether or not there is a real chance for Democrats to break out of the minority in the U.S. Senate and gain control of both chambers of Congress. Democrats are playing offense in many key Senate races, and there are indications that this work could pay off.
For starters, the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives may be over before it truly begins. Currently, it appears more likely that House Republicans will lose even more seats, compounding their losses from the 2018 midterms, and become further entrenched in the House minority. For the House to flip, the Republicans will have to gain a net of 17 seats — increasingly unlikely given this summer’s projections.
Aly Mutnick with POLITICO writes that GOP strategists are worried they may have to focus on defending some of their most vulnerable seats instead of spending funds trying to flip Democratic-held seats. A recent shift in the suburbs, which have been traditionally held by Republicans but have trended blue in recent elections, is something the Republican strategists and campaigns are simply not equipped to handle. This trend makes it even more likely that spending will be directed toward retaining as many seats as possible in states like New York, Texas, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.
The Patriot Program, an entity run by the NRCC to boost the profiles of incumbents in tight races, has named 17 Republicans expected to face challenging Democratic opponents. These incumbents gain special attention from the national party to raise funds and organize staff, and it appears that the money will be pushed toward them this year.
Ohio’s 1st District, held by Rep. Steve Cabot, is notable in being a traditionally safe seat for the Republicans now being added to the Patriot Program — not the best look if the public goal of the GOP is to re-take the House.
Many of these races are still considered to lean Republican, but it becomes difficult to properly assist a growing number of incumbents in their re-election bids while also attempting to flip 17 other seats. All this, coupled with the fact that the DCCC continues to out-raise the NRCC, effectively takes the House at-large out of play this November.
This brings us to the more interesting question: What about the Senate?
Currently, the party distribution of the Senate is 53–47 in the Republican’s favor. For the Democrats to take control of the Senate, they must net 3–4 seats this year depending on which ticket wins the White House. The Vice President will be able to break ties as the President of the Senate if the party distribution is 50–50, which accounts for there being the possibility that Democrats only need 3 more seats to gain control.
There is only one incumbent Democrat at high risk to lose his seat this November. Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) won by 1.7% in the 2017 special election against Roy Moore, but he is now projected to be 3 points behind his Trump-backed 2020 challenger Tommy Tuberville.
Alabama is notably a deep red state where Trump enjoyed a 62–34 percentage lead against Hillary Clinton. The Cook Political Report lists this race as leaning Republican, so the Democrats have their work cut out for them in this close, but conservative-favored race.
On the other hand, this grim picture in Alabama has a silver-lining. Democrats are competitive all across the country in states Trump carried easily in 2016. If resources are worth being used in Alabama, then Democrats are in a better position than previously thought in regard to taking back control.
The Cook Political Report lists 6 Republican incumbents as “toss-ups”: Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine, Steve Daines of Montana, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, and even David Perdue of Georgia.
Additionally, Senator Martha McSally’s re-election race in Arizona is listed as leaning Democratic.
This means that there are ample opportunities for the Democrats to gain the necessary seats to flip the Senate — even if Senator Doug Jones loses his race.
Fundraising by the campaigns are scattered, with the Republican candidates out-raising in Georgia, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Iowa and Democratic candidates out-raising in Maine, Arizona, and Alabama.
The national campaign arms of both parties, the DSCC and the NRSC, have around the same amount of cash on hand. The Democrats currently have a slight edge with 37 million on hand compared to the NRSC’s 30 million, so fundraising appears to be a more difficult metric to predict electoral outcome this time around.
2018 was certainly the year for Democrats to control the bleeding and defend as many seats as possible. Now, the party is positioned to play offense in a way we haven't seen in many cycles past.
Although the game of political predictions continues to become more difficult, it looks as though Democrats have the resources and poll numbers to gain seats in the Senate. While understanding this, it is still too early to know whether or not it will be enough to make Mitch McConnell assume the position of minority leader.
If the Senate does flip, and Joe Biden wins the presidency, Democrats will enjoy trifecta government control for the first time in a decade. If there was ever a year to do it, it’s this one.
