The Conservative Majority Is Big But Shallow
Why the Tories must manage their new coalition of voters carefully to avoid a complete collapse in the next election.
The notable takeaway from the UK Election is plainly obvious: the Conservatives won because of the so-called “Labour Leave” seats in the North of England — towns which voted to leave the EU by big margins, and which have traditionally been held by Labour.
These seats are generally former mining constituencies, but with the close of the pits in the 1970s and 80s, they have often been left to their own devices by governments of all stripes, focusing on London and the south-east.
And looking at most of these seats, it’s clear that the Conservatives have a large but shallow majority: they have won with a few hundred or thousand votes, making their majority very fragile. As Boris Johnson recognised in his first speech after the election, many of these voters have never voted Tory before — and never want to again.
They have “lent” him their votes to get Brexit done and for no other reason, and fully intend to vote for Labour at the next election. Think what you will about Boris Johnson, but he’s got his finger on the pulse, and that bodes well for the new government.
