Who Will Be the 2020 Democratic Nominee | 3 Key Predictive Indicators

Anthony Galli
Sep 24, 2019 · 4 min read

The first question I ask myself whenever I think about who will win an election is what candidate keeps me watching?

This isn’t to say he or she is the most eloquent speaker.

It just means he or she keeps me glued to the screen for better AND for worse. Eyeballs = power.

And a big part of what keeps me watching is PASSION and AUTHENTICITY.

In modern American history, the presidential candidate who displayed the most authentic passion won…

  • H.W. Bush vs. Clinton
  • Clinton vs. Dole
  • Bush vs. Gore
  • Bush vs. Kerry
  • Obama vs. McCain
  • Obama vs. Romney
  • Hillary vs. Trump

Do you agree?

Putting political affiliation aside, we should agree that the more authentically passionate candidate won at least most of the time.

And then the next question I ask myself, particularly as it pertains to the Democratic primary, is who do black Americans like watching the most?

The black vote is why Obama and Clinton won the Democratic nomination. Bill Clinton is even jokingly referred to as the first black president.

Currently, Joe Biden is winning the black vote, but polling isn’t particularly relevant this early in the game.

A better indicator I believe to determine who will win the black vote is after watching the candidates speak who do black audience members prefer?

After the She the People forum…

VICE News reporter: “Who did you think did the best today?”

Young Black Woman: Warren.

Middle-Age Black Woman: Warren.

Older Black Woman: Warren.

And then after a recent South Carolina forum with a predominately black audience, the Huffington Post reported…

“But while all the contenders received good marks for their comments on stage, Warren’s performance appeared to have made the biggest impression, earning the senator from Massachusetts a large standing ovation.”

The last question I ask myself is who is the most dissimilar to the incumbent?

Again, when you look at modern American history the candidate who ends up winning the primary and then the presidency is the candidate who was the most unlike the incumbent.

In 1992 the candidate most unlike President George H.W. Bush was a young, socially/sexually liberal, outsider Bill Clinton.

In 2000 the candidate most unlike Bill Clinton was George W. Bush.

In 2008 the candidate most unlike George W. Bush was Barrack Obama.

In 2016 the candidate most unlike Barrack Obama was Donald Trump.

In 2020 the candidate most unlike Donald Trump is {drumroll} somebody who is…

Far-left, a policy-wonk, worked almost exclusively in the public sector, consistent record, black, female, eloquent, young, gay, and from a small mid-western southern town.

So who of the current candidates would you plot the furthest from Trump?

Therefore based on these three KEY indicators the candidate I predict will win the Democratic nomination is… Elizabeth “I have a plan for that” Warren.

Note: Neither poll ratings, endorsements, policy soundness, money raised, experience, nor morals made my list, however, I personally base my support almost exclusively on policy, experience, and morals, but this article isn’t about who I support. It’s about who I think will win based on what I believe are the most important predictive indicators, which also happen to get overlooked in the poll-money obsessed media.

But in American politics there is no such thing as impossible… only unlikely.

Elizabeth Warren could get embroiled in a sex scandal, i.e. “Listen, Timmy! If you want to pass my class then you need to do a little extra credit for Professor Warren.”

Unlikely, but possible.

In the end, this is still anyone’s game… at least as it pertains to Warren and the three Bees: Biden, Bernie, and Buttigieg.

But this is Warren’s game to win.

The eyes of the world are watching.

Dialogue & Discourse

News and ideas worthy of discourse.

Medium is an open platform where 170 million readers come to find insightful and dynamic thinking. Here, expert and undiscovered voices alike dive into the heart of any topic and bring new ideas to the surface. Learn more

Follow the writers, publications, and topics that matter to you, and you’ll see them on your homepage and in your inbox. Explore

If you have a story to tell, knowledge to share, or a perspective to offer — welcome home. It’s easy and free to post your thinking on any topic. Write on Medium

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store