The Enthusiasm Gap: Why Biden Can’t Beat Trump
Let me begin by saying that I’m not a political scientist. Nothing in the article below will be based on history or political theory. Rather it will be based on something in my wheelhouse; the psychology of motivation.
There is a narrative out there that Donald Trump has used fear to motivate his supporters. I’m proposing that this isn’t the reason he commands the loyalty that he does. Why does this matter? Because pinning his success entirely on fear ignores something critical that he has done, something that if democrats continue to ignore, may cost them the white house in 2020.
Trump did something powerful that no candidate has done for rural and rust-belt America in decades; he named their pain. He agreed with them that they were forgotten, that there was no place for them in the future, that the America they loved was dead, that their birthright had been stolen. From there, nothing would stop them loving him.
Republicans have also used fear as their main tactic for a generation; fear of black people, fear of muslims, fear of gays, fear of uppity women, fear of people taking their guns, fear of a government takeover, fear of socialism, fear of veganism (no really, check out the last two minutes of the clip). But none of them inspired the loyalty that Trump was given. Why? When you name a person’s pain, they feel understood. They feel energized and hopeful.
Fox news has been effectively using fear on its viewers for decades. It now functions like a state sponsored propaganda network. But think back to the GOP primaries of 2016. Who did Fox support? Reminder: not Donald Trump. Even though Trump’s talking points were a greatest hits collection of Fox talking points, the network was afraid of Trump and supported other candidates. Their message of fear didn’t break through Trump’s message.
Don’t get me wrong, Trump still uses fear to motivate his base. My guess is that even he believes that it’s fear that motivates them. But fear alone isn’t winning elections for the GOP. Take a look at the numbers for the 2018 midterms for proof. Despite the drubbing that republicans took in the midterms, Trump’s approval ratings have been remarkably steady, even through stunning scandals and open corruption. His base simply doesn’t care about these things, and fear alone doesn’t explain that reality.
There is a danger for the democrats in misunderstanding what motivates the base of the GOP. The truth is, Trump’s base has pain that’s real and legitimate. Democrats were supposed to be the party to help, but they didn’t. The republicans haven’t helped either. But Trump? He makes them feel like there’s a place for them. He makes them feel important, like they’re winning. Everything he does betrays their confidence in him, but that feeling is something they haven’t had in decades.
On the other side of the political spectrum there’s pain too. In 2016 Bernie Sanders named it and earned himself a following as loyal as Trump’s. Unlike Trump, Bernie’s base wasn’t quite enough to win the nomination. Hillary won the nomination but didn’t win loyalty in the same way. She may have been the most qualified candidate ever, with the most progressive policy platform since the New Deal, but she didn’t generate enthusiasm in the way that Trump or Sanders did. In the end, low voter turn-out and third party votes cost her the election.
Clinton lost in 2016 because of an enthusiasm gap. As of now, that enthusiasm gap hasn’t changed when it comes to presidential candidates. Democrats as a whole are more motivated and enthusiastic than any other time in my lifetime, but this hasn’t translated onto a specific candidate. Why does this matter? Enthusiasm wins, safety doesn’t.
The last democratic presidents weren’t safe choices within the party. They weren’t the ones with the most impressive resumes, they were the ones who excited people. Let’s look at the list of recent nominees: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were the least qualified on that list. They were unsafe picks, but they generated enthusiasm. Obama connected with people around hope. He named their pain and used it to paint a positive, uplifting feeling of hope. Clinton did the same (and got an assist from Ross Perot in the election). Democrats were more excited than they had been since the Reagan era began. Enthusiasm wins, safety doesn’t.
Democrats should be looking to choose a candidate that can generate more enthusiasm than Trump. Instead, most are looking for the safest candidate. Without a doubt, that is Joe Biden. But will Biden really win? Republicans won in 2016 because of low voter turnout. Democrats won big in 2018 because of high turnout. Is Joe Biden really the one who will excite people to go to the polls, especially young people and people of color?
Joe Biden is running on an emotional message of civility in politics. It’s a backward facing message, like Trump’s. I would suggest that it’s even less appealing. Yes, it would be great if things weren’t so polarized, but the “good old days” of political civility left most of America high and dry. People of color were consistently promised change that never came. Workers watched the rich get fabulously, unconscionably rich, while they fought to stay afloat. We all watched our military “protect our interests” in ill-advised fight after fight. Who wants to return to this? At least Trump gives an inspiring (albeit imaginary) message.
The only way Biden can win against Trump is if fear of Trump drives people to vote against him. As I mentioned before, fear is a short-term motivator. We’ve had two and a half years of Trump. I don’t know about you, but I’m exhausted already. Remember when Trump took office and instituted the travel ban? People flooded airports in protest. Now we have migrant detention centers, which are far worse. There is outrage, but where are the protests? People are exhausted now. How exhausted and fed up will be they in a year and a half, after a year of campaigning?
It isn’t like there aren’t exciting candidates in the race. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro, Corey Booker and Andrew Yang have all shown the ability to excite. We’ll need excitement around a candidate to get people to the polls. We’ll need a vision of the future that goes beyond Trump, one that is inspiring enough to break through the Trump circus. That message isn’t going to come from a safe candidate promising a return to normal.
