The Impossibility of a Chinese Global Leadership
The United States is declining as a global power. A leader cannot just be the stronger. After all, a leader has to lead. Can another country fill this void in the future? Could this possibly be China? This search assumes such a leadership position out of global necessity, but we cannot be sure such a leader will always emerge. Particularly, I hope to show that China in its present state is incapable of emerging as a global leader due to its lack of soft power.
What is soft power?
In common perception, the concept of soft power includes everything other than aggressive military power. But this is a mistaken view. I find it more intuitive to define the complement of soft power first, which is hard power. In contrast with soft power, hard power is marked by the ability to coerce, and that coercion can take in many forms. In addition to coercion by sheer military might, economic dominance is a major source of domination.
In contrast, what can be some examples of powers that are non-coercive? Joseph S. Nye of the Belfer Center captures three key characteristics of a state’s soft power as:
- An appealing culture.
- Upstanding domestic political values.
- Foreign policies seen as legitimate and having moral authority.
Make no mistake, the line between hard and soft power is often blurred. Hard power can help project soft power, and vice versa. The two forms of power are interdependent in many aspects.
Moreover, I recognize that this article hinges on the assumption that the ability to project soft power is a necessary criterion for a global leader. To be a leader in the global stage in the 21st century, there must be in some form of a reflexive relation between leaders and followers. Being a leader depends on public opinions, which rest largely on its moral legitimacy as well as economic, military might.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China’s recent major foreign policy project is the Belt and Road initiative, which was introduced in September 2013 by Xi Jinping during his trip to Kazakhstan. The aim of the project This includes a “Silk Road Economic Belt,” which proposes road and rail construction projects that link Asia to Europe, as well as a “Maritime Silk Road,” which links China’s ports to the Mediterranean through the Suez canal.
Infrastructure constructions take place mostly in underdeveloped countries with weak governments in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, as well as Africa. These constructions are mostly financed by debt, with China as the major creditor. It should be no surprise that weak governments and inflow of easy money leads to rampant corruption, in which connections with China and personal gains unavoidably takes priority relative to national well-being. History has also shown that underdeveloped countries that do not diversify their economic capabilities beyond raw material export will be prone to remain stagnant. More immediately, mismanagement of debt, in cases like Sri Lanka, caused a vital trade port to be leased to a Chinese state-owned company for 99 years. Brazen violation of sovereignty alright.
Can we really call this a display of soft power? I believe we cannot. Ernest Wilson described the capability to coerce “another to act in ways in which that entity would not have acted otherwise” as a hallmark of hard power. Indeed, economic coercion is not limited to just economic sanctions. Sheer economic strength to finance can be a form of coercion for people living under weak governments.
It’s naive to believe state-owned companies from China can plausibily put international goodwill over their self interests. At the same time, while Chinese cash might win over government officials, shaping public opinions is actually a completely different matter. Hard and soft powers are projected differently. Although it was the hope of the Chinese government that investment economic cooperation can also yield a positive image of China as a global leader, I claim that this hope is slim.Chinese soft power on the global stage is very limited.
A Lack of Moral Legitimacy
The main reason for such nonexistence of soft power is due to fundamental differences in values, between the Chinese perspective and the foreign perspective. We have to recognize that the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party for Chinese people largely comes from its efficiency in governing. This efficiency is for Chinese people. We don’t fool ourselves in believing our government is based on any universal idealistic principles such as freedom, or any form of actual representative democracy. In consequence, the Chinese government actually does not have any tools to spread its legitimacy in a universal form to countries besides from China itself.
This is not to fall into the idealist naivety that liberal democracies found on universal principles will often help the third-world out of pure goodwill. Goodwill usually takes a back seat to broader interests of the state, and interests of the state can also be masked in goodwill.
In China’s case, without any sort of universal ideological principle, we have an especially hard time in convincing international audiences of any good intention at all. The only principle the Chinese people believe in is efficiency and prosperity. It is unclear how any person can realistically expect the Chinese dreams of efficiency and prosperity is meant to extend universally. Fact of the matter is, China does not have the aspiration to lead to better global interest unless there are visible, tangible benefits to China itself.
This lack of moral legitimacy is not just reflected by the common interpretation of an authoritarian government led by a communist party. China’s lack of moral legitimacy is further exacerbated by its aggressive actions in the South China Sea, and even its domestic policies that limit individual freedom. Despite China’s recent attempt to reshape the narrative of the Coronavirus crisis, China’s quick response can never make up for its initial attempt to suppress crucial information in the early stages. The fatality count in China continues to face doubts abroad. At the same time, our masks exported around the world are criticized for defective qualities. This is not to even mention that this is the second time in 17 years a major pandemic originated in China, due to a defective policy on wildlife consumption.
No Propaganda is the Best Propaganda
The concept of propaganda itself has a very negative connotation. It is directly associated with power from authority, which interest may not align with your true interest. The common impression of propaganda usually consists of brainwashing that induces a sense of altered reality. The best propagandas is, of course, not propaganda in the sense that it is not perceived to be propaganda, but the ability to portray a desirable way of life to a foreign culture is hard.
China’s soft power forms an immediate contrast with the soft power of the United States. No Propaganda also does not mean no intention of propaganda. Rather, the effective spread of culture and moral legitimacy of a government does not lie in obvious propaganda. In America, non-government institutions in America form the bulk of America’s soft power. This might include Hollywood, pop culture, universities, and foundations. Take Hollywood for example, movies depict particular ways of life in America that are also enjoyable to its international audience. Positive images of the U.S. are projected without from forms of entertainment, instead of the government. The soft power of the U.S. is further exemplified in recent Hong Kong protests in fear of China’s encroachment. I was shocked to see pictures of a few protestors waving the American flag on the street. For a nation to be near synonymous with the concept of liberty in someone’s mind is a testament of that soft power.
The coronavirus crisis will not hinder China’s economic progress. But it remains hard for China to buy soft power with sheer economic strength. There is only so much that money can accomplish. China’s attempt to project its soft power will be consistently undermined by its limit of various domestic freedoms. If the Chinese government can’t even treat its citizens with dignity, doesn’t allow any dissent, then any efforts to improve its image by propaganda will not only be ineffective, but even counterproductive.
Does the ability to project soft power imply prima facie that that culture is somehow superior and aligned with our true interests as ordinary citizens? Who really is blinded by ideology anyway? These are not trivial topics for discussions. As the effects of Covid-19 are still unfolding around us, uncertainties reign. We must cooperate and be organized to international conversations on global security, climate change, and public health. The prospect of global well-being without a leader is stark.
Reference:
- Nye, Joseph S. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York: Public Affairs, 2004.
