The Myth of the Rock-Solid Trump Base
And why Democrats should go after it
There is probably no belief more widely accepted in U.S. politics today than that Donald Trump’s base is rock solid: unmovable and unshakable. Through all the ups and downs, through all the blunders and divisiveness, these diehard supporters have stayed with Trump, or so goes the conventional wisdom. Nothing Trump says or does could ever push them away, much less towards Joe Biden.
In truth, however, Trump’s base is more dynamic and fragile than it seems, and there are some very good reasons for Democrats to go after it. But before we get there, let’s explore where this conventional wisdom comes from.
Why People Believe that Trump’s Base Is Beyond Reach
On the surface, the conventional wisdom certainty rings true. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Trump presidential approval tracker:
Though there has been some variability in Trump’s approval numbers, since February 2018 he’s maintained a remarkably stable average rating of about 43% among registered and likely voters, with a range of +/- 3%.
