There Will Be No Red Wave
The myth of a blowout Republican Election Day turnout
According to U.S. Election Project, registered Democrats are outvoting Republicans in early voting by a margin of over 21 points. But not so fast says polling by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist. They say that Republicans, wary of voting-by-mail, will show up in-person on November 3rd with 66% of ballots going to Trump.
There’s been talk of a red “giant wave” that will stop the blue wave from advancing. A Washington Post/University of Maryland poll found that 71% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person on Election Day.
So, on November 4th, will the GOP be saying, “Dem’s had us in the first half, not gonna lie”?
No, not likely.
Some might assume that Democrats have merely shifted their voting behavior. That all of the early Biden votes would have been received anyway, they’re just happening earlier. But that’s not the case. Approximately 20% of votes have been received from people who did not cast a ballot in 2016. Democrats are logging more new and independent voters who are emboldened to vote early. And they are doing so in the face of many obstacles — long lines, fears of coronavirus, limited ballot boxes, and threats of intimidation.
