Things Are Much Worse Than They Look For The Republican Party

Formerly solid Red states are looking increasingly purple

The Presidential election is nearing, and things aren’t looking good for the Republican party. FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats an 80% chance of taking the White House; the Economist is even more bullish, estimating an 89% chance. While there is still enough time for a large shift, things are looking increasingly bleak for Donald Trump. Worse yet, 538 also gives Democrats the edge to take control of the Senate (63% chance).

For Republicans, it may be easy to write this off election as voter pushback against a somewhat unpopular Donald Trump. This view — that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the party or their strategy — is convincing in its simplicity. However, a closer look at the number shows a more troubling trend. The ground seems to be moving from under them in a way that could shift the entire political landscape.

Big Red States Turning Purple

Texas and Arizona have been Republican strongholds in recent years. But recently, these states have been looking increasingly likely to swing to the Democrats. Despite a weak performance overall, Hillary Clinton lost by the smallest margin in Texas since her husband Bill Clinton was President.