Violence, Undercover, Evil law — the four major mistakes before the fall of Ukrainian tyranny
On August 29th, I was invited to attend a “Movie Sharing Event” held in Central to watch and discuss the film “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”, a documentary about Ukrainian anti-government demonstrations in 2013. The film describes the peaceful protests from the students to the government’s violent suppression, from the citizens’ gathering to protect the children to the Ukrainian masses to participate in defending freedom, from the government using prisoners to beat the demonstrators, to the use of guns to shoot the people, the government has made people become angrier and finally turned into a revolution. The current Hong Kong 2019 anti-extradition bill movement looks very similar to the Ukrainian 2013's, from the citizens’ gathering against the evil law to the masses demanding the establishment of an independent investigation committee and the other four major demands, the movement has now lasted for more than 100 days, and the police has made people become angrier, including the 7.21 incident that the police connived the triad to beat the public, to the 8.31 incident that the police use excessive force to crack down the protesters at the Prince Edward Station, the 9.29 incident that the police deliberately shot blind an Indonesian news reporter, and the 10.1 incident that the police shot with live round at the chest of a 18-year-old protester in close distance!
The movement for freedom in Ukraine has evolved from a peaceful struggle into a revolution. It started when the people asked the government to sign a trade agreement with the EU, and finally, the people demanded the government to step down. The situation in Hong Kong is becoming more and more similar to the development of Ukraine’s 2013 revolution. It started when the people asked the government to withdraw the Fugitive Offender Amendment Bill, but now because of the brutality of the police, the government’s connivance and the injustice of the current political system, the people is asking the Five Major Demands including, among others, the establishment of an independent investigation committee looking into the police wrongdoings and the implementation of true universal suffrage.
History seems to repeat itself. We, human beings, have learned so many historical lessons though, the government officials and politicians do not seem to have learned to avoid making the same mistakes.
During the sharing session, I have analyzed the four mistakes that the former Ukrainian President Yanukovych did wrong. Three of them have already been done in the current Hong Kong 2019 movement, and the fourth one seems to be realized very soon. This article is drafted based on Cheng’s (2019) article recording part of my speech that night :
The first mistake: political issues are not resolved by politics
The movement of Ukraine was called the Euromaidan Revolution. The reason was that the then pro-Russian President Yanukovych announced the suspension of the free trade agreement originally signed with the EU. In the beginning, the president decided to use force to suppress peaceful demonstrations, which eventually triggered a larger scale protest. The Ukrainian government did not try to solve a political dispute by political means. The current situation in Hong Kong is exactly the same. In fact, the Five Major Demands can be resolved by political means, but the Chief Executive decides not to use it. In fact, if Hong Kong can have a genuine democratic election, it can resolve the conflict by means of discussion and resolution in the Legislative Council, and would not result in such social unrest. However, when the Legislative Council system in Hong Kong is intrinsically biased and unjust, it made political problems impossible to be resolved by political means. The situation in Hong Kong is even worse than that in Ukraine because there is no real fair election, the Legislative Council has become a rubber stamp. The government can disqualify councilors at their own will by re-interpreting the Basic Law, thus the public no longer believes in the established political system. When political leaders cannot resolve political disputes, the public is forced to go on the streets to fight for their rights. In 2014, Ukraine could still dismiss the president through the parliament, dissolve the parliament and re-elect the president. However, Hong Kong’s political system is designed to make the dismissal process almost impossible. Superficially, it seems to favor the government by reassuring no challenge, but in fact, when the public loses the scrutinizing power, the result must be a corrupt regime, and finally a forced revolution.
The second mistake: police excessive and abusive force
Those in power are attempting to suppress demonstrations through the use of excessive and abusive police force, and even condone hooligans or non-local gangsters to beat people indifferently. In the past few months, frontline protesters in Hong Kong could realize that when the police become political tools, public servants who vowed to protect the safety of the citizens can turn into cruel killers and murderers, but history tells us that suppressing by force will not solve political problems, but will only lead to deeper hatred. At the end of the Ukrainian 2013 revolution, in fact, many of the participating police and military personnel finally regretted it and some of them were punished. So the police in Hong Kong today should have a look at this movie.
The third mistake: undercover conflict
The third mistake made by the Hong Kong Government is also the most deadly mistake. Although I have suspected it since early June, it is only until mid-August that the police revealed that they have assigned undercover to act as protesters. They do not only arrest protesters on the scene, but there are videos showing their alleged acts of arson and other violence with the purpose of blaming the protesters.
In 2014, many local policemen in Ukraine refused to shoot and suppress the citizens, Yanukovych, therefore, sent undercover at least twice, including using some troops to pretend to be police officers shooting the protesters. Hong Kong situation is very similar, and the police have admitted that they sent undercover to act like protestors. It is confusing who is doing all the arsons and violence, the police are no longer trustworthy. The second batch of undercover in the Ukrainian incident was even more terrifying. The Ukrainian government sent trained mercenary to shoot the protesters. It caused more than 200 deaths in the incident. Similarly, the Hong Kong police have used undercover to incite the acts in the past three months. The arrested people on the night of the 8.11 conflict suffered from the undercover’s abuse, resulting in some serious fractures. For a detailed analysis of the acts of the undercover police, please refer to my other article .
The fourth mistake: evil law to stop demonstrations and masks
The fourth mistake made by the Ukrainian government seems to be coming very soon in Hong Kong. In 2014, Yanukovych passed a new dictatorship law to ban demonstrations, masks, and helmets, which aroused public anger. More people come out, who don’t wear helmets, but taking pots and buckets, wearing middle ages masks instead of medical masks. The introduction of this evil law finally became the turning point of the situation. It triggered the January 19 incident, and protesters finally forced the Congress to dismiss the presidency of Yanukovych, who left the country at the same night.
The Ukrainian incident of the year 2013–2014 seemed to be like the “prophecy” of the situation in Hong Kong. The Government of Carrie Lam wants to stop the anti-government voice by reactivating the 100-year colonial law, the Emergency Regulations Ordinance, which contains 14 evil powers, such as prohibiting masking, wearing helmets, and demonstrating. It also allows the police to enter a house without a search order, to ban the communication software, and even to intercept all communication contents, control property, and to force deportation.
In fact, in recent weeks the police have repeatedly refused to approve the assembly and the protest applications, including the 8.31 and 10.1 protests. The pro-establishment camp is urging the government to ban masking. These acts seem to be the prelude of the realization of the fourth mistake of the government of Hong Kong. [The HK Government announced at 3pm on Oct 4 that the Anti-mask Law would be effective on Oct 5, the prophecy comes true!]
Learning from the lessons of the Ukrainian incident, it highlights the importance of striving for true universal suffrage. We do not only request the leader to step down, but more importantly we must also revamp the political system and let the people regain power. This is what the frontline warriors, who have sacrificed for us, truly fight for. Only when the political system can properly scrutinize the governance, the voice of the citizens can be heard and reflected through the political platforms, the elected members are really respected by the government, and the elected members can have a fair mechanism to impeach and dismiss the Chief Executive and other senior government officials, political issues can then be resolved politically, and the society can achieve a long-term stability.
God bless Hong Kong!
 鄭其泓 (2019)《凜冬烈火》預言香港自由之戰，警暴、臥底、惡法 — — 烏克蘭暴政垮台前四大錯誤在港續應驗，9月2日，https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2019/09/02/905869.html
 姚松炎 (2019) 不明來歷的臥底參與示威對付示威者，9月8日。 https://vocus.cc/eyanalysispoliecon/5d6b4971fd8978000156db1b