Why Joe Biden’s Team is Raising the Alarm.
At least they’re acknowledging what Hillary Clinton didn’t.
After getting home from work I opened my Facebook app, and happened to see a post from Joe Biden sponsored by the Biden Victory Fund at the very top of my newsfeed. Granted I’m sure many of us have been seeing so many of them these days we tend to just scroll right on by, but after actually pausing to read the contents I was glad that this one had caught my attention.
The text of the post read:
“Don’t scroll away just yet — this is important. We’ve been saying recently that our internal polls are showing a much, much closer race than the media would have you think. Now we are seeing a few public polls also say that this is going to come down to the wire:
Michigan: Trump 47, Biden 46 (-1)
Arizona: Trump 48, Biden 44 (-4)
Florida: Trump 48, Biden 46 (-2)
I need your help right now. Please, rush a $25 donation or as much as you can spare to our last-minute advertising and outreach efforts so we can defeat Trump and the GOP nationwide. Your donation could be the one that tips us over the line to victory in one of these critical battlegrounds.”
Considering that deep red territory like Georgia and Texas are in play for Democrats this election cycle, one’s first instinct might be to outright dismiss the post as just an attempt to get some fundraising for the last round of advertisements as we head into the general election. The fact that Arizona is even being considered a swing state is a pretty powerful indication that the tides are turning. These ads are typical tactics for campaigns that are attempting to keep voters energized as opposed to complacent, willing to fundraise, and make sure they still feel motivated enough to get to the polls. To be clear, I do think that is the main goal of raising the alarm in this manner, and they’re just trying to remind people that anything could happen. Having said that, I’m sure some internal numbers really are showing that the race is indeed much tighter than the national polls would lead us to believe.
Gallup’s poll also happened to show what is potentially the most powerful number in favor of Trump of the entire election cycle.
When asked if they’re better or worse off than they were four years ago, an astonishing 56% of voters — in the middle of a devastating pandemic that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, and an economic crisis comparable to the Great Depression — said they were better off.
That genuinely unexplainable number, coupled with the fact that Biden’s team is indicating the internals aren’t as good as the national polls, is leading me to ultimately prepare myself mentally for another potential Trump victory. At the very least, then I wouldn’t be surprised if he once again manages to win the electoral college. Data might prove that Trump’s chances are slim in comparison to Biden’s, but that chance is still there. FiveThirtyEight’s election model might show that Trump only wins 13 out of 100 times, but that doesn’t mean November 3rd won’t unfold in a manner similar to those 13 times.
At this point, I still do think Joe Biden is going to win. But the fact that it could even be close is a damning indictment of the Democratic party if there ever was one. In a sane world, Donald Trump wouldn’t have a prayer after over 200,000 people died as a direct result of his sociopathic inaction. In a sane world, every single political consultant who worked on a campaign that lost to him — especially under these circumstances — would never be able to show their face in Washington D.C. again.
But if nothing else, at least Joe Biden is acknowledging what Hillary Clinton and the pundit class never did in 2016: this isn’t going to be the smooth sailing ahead, easy victory that it should be.