Why Trump Might Still Win

The polls are wrong.

President Donald J. Trump address a gathering of peaceful protesters in support of law and order from the Blue Room Balcony on the South Lawn of the White House Saturday, October 10, 2020, in his first official event since recovering from the coronavirus. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

Nationwide, Democrats are celebrating. Republicans are panicking. Joe Biden is way up in the polls and long-time Democratic strategist James Carville is ready to break out the champagne already.

Yet, a certain nervousness persists on the left. No one can quite forget the stunning upset of the 2016 election. There are also more than a few unnerving signs indicating Joe Biden’s lead may not be as strong as Democrats hope.

The Polls Are Wrong

“I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.” — Paul Kael, The New Yorker 1971.

“Believe the polls this time,” The Atlantic begged its readers in July, though the author was forced to admit later in the piece: “I am a pollster who works to get Democrats elected.”

“Don’t believe the polls,” we are told by other authorities. “Trump will outperform the polls again,” some warn. “Have state pollsters learned the lessons of 2016?” is a question many are asking. A deep suspicion they haven’t is nagging.

The Atlantic takes as a given that Joe Biden has been in the lead this entire race. Indeed, before Joe Biden was even named the nominee, the Democratic Party was bragging that every Democratic…