This is how the Chicago Fire need to rebuild the backline ready for 2016.
Chicago Fire GM Nelson Rodriguez recently spoke with MLSSoccer.com’s Fire beat writer Shane Murray. A bare-bones piece, with Rodriguez reluctant to comment on any transfer speculation, but the salient point from the article was this one: the clubs main priority in the offseason is still central defence.
This is hardly news to the long-suffering Fire fans reading this. The team has no recognisable starting centre backs following this summers clear-out.
Previously the Fire had Jeff Larentowicz and Adaílton who were the two starting centre backs last year, but decided to decline the options on both of them as well as Lovel Palmer and recent-ish arrival Ty Harden is out of contract too.
Looking at base salary figures alone from Tom Worville’s ever-useful MLS Salaries Database I’ve calculated that the Fire have roughly $726,000 to spend on players.
Looking more generally on a team level, that’s 6,701 minutes of play in the team (calculated by adding up the players individual minutes on WhoScored) - or positionally two starting players playing all the minutes in the league, and change.
Essentially, the Fire need to replace what they had originally - which was two starting grade centre backs, a versatile left/right back and a solid backup. Once again this probably is not a surprise for Chicago Fire fans.
$726,000 really is not that much when you look at the gaps to be filled though. Even looking at the 2015 season, many teams spent at least half that on one starting defensive player:
So what are the solutions to this problem? Below I’ve given three potential solutions to one of the centre back spots.
#1 Hope (and pray) that Joshua Yaro signs a Generation Adidas Contract
Joshua Yaro is one of the best players in the 2016 draft class. It’s also arguable that he’s the best defender in the draft also (Prospect XI and SBI rate him, I’ve not watched him play before.)
If he is as good as he’s been hyped it to be, then Chicago should take him with their #1 pick in the First Round of the SuperDraft.
Thinking optimistically, if Yaro does sign a Generation Adidas deal with the league then the Fire will have a starting calibre centre back that does not take any money away from the remaining $726,000. This is pretty rare in the draft to get a regular defensive starter, with Andrew Farrell being the only #1 Draft Pick who has had a similar history that I could find.
This is not a straightforward move though, as it’s rumoured that Yaro has other options in Europe and therefore may not sign with the league. If he does sign outside of the league, then I’d look to leverage the draft pick with a team lower down the pecking order for a sizable amount of allocation money, or a starting defender.
#2 Use the TAM to get a DP calibre centre back from abroad
As seen in the league previously with the signing of Gastón Sauro to the Crew or the buying down of Omar Gonzalez’s salary to below DP levels at LA - using TAM (or Targeted Allocation Money) is a good way to bring in a good centre back without using up a DP slot.
It’s also worth noting that the Fire currently have a DP slot free, having bought Kennedy Igboananike’s salary to below DP levels to accommodate the signing of Gilberto from Toronto last season.
From a Front Office point of view, it makes more sense to use TAM rather than a DP slot on a defensive player. For me, defensively a team is not about individuals but about the collective organisation and how they work together. For that reason, you’re likely to get more for your money by buying a productive attacking player with DP money, rather than one individually good centre back.
Equally, I think that it’s best to increase the quality of the whole defensive line rather than just one player. With Adaílton and Larentowicz gone - both of whom were 32 years old - the Fire have the opportunity to bring in defensive players who are of a better quality than Adaílton and Larentowicz and younger also. The use of TAM will allow them to do that.
So, who can they bring in? I don’t have a publishable list of targets - but I think that there is value in the Central American markets. If you can pick up an international calibre player like Ramon Torres using TAM, or Kendall Waston for just $225,000 (aka - peanuts) then there are surely others who are younger and potentially cheaper also.
#3 Get a league established centre back
I was surprised that Chicago didn’t go for Drew Moor in free agency - but my gut tells me that they could have done and the big bucks in Toronto outbid them for his services.
This does leave Toronto with 11 recognised defenders on their roster currently:
Toronto therefore have an oversupply of central defenders in Nick Hagglund, Ahmed Kantari, Drew Moor, Damien Perquis, Josh Williams, Clement Simonin and Eriq Zavaleta all vying for two starting spots.
From this pack I’d look to move for either Hagglund ($60,000 - non-cap salary) or Perquis ($323,000) using allocation money. Hagglund is a really promising centre back in my opinion, and Perquis (despite being 31) is definitely starting quality for Chicago.
Equally I might look at Orlando City, who have nine defenders currently on their roster:
Aurelien Collin knows the league well, but is a pricey option ($500,000). Seb Hines is probably the best defender value for money wise - being only 27 years old and costing just $108,576 last season. It remains to be seen whether he’ll move back to the league again from Middlesborough or not though.
So after choosing one of the options above there is still the second central defender to worry about, and a versatile left/right back also.
For the full back I’d once again look within the league or abroad. Furthermore I’d see how much it would take to prise Bryan Burke away from Jacksonville Armada. Burke was a USL-All Team-er, Defender of the Year and had the most assists in the league also with 10 (see here).
Finally for the other centre back spot I’d look to either Chris Schuler or Jalil Anibaba - both were not picked up in the recent Waiver Draft and represent value for money MLS starting quality ($165,000 and $120,000 respectively).
So to conclude:
- Firstly, thank you for taking the time to read this piece. Feedback, comments and shares would as always be greatly appreciated.
- Secondly, a lot depends on whether Joshua Yaro signs a Generation Adidas contract or not in my opinion. If he does, then Fire have one of their starting centre backs sorted. If he doesn’t, they need to use that draft pick to get a starting centre back somehow.
- Thirdly, $726,000 for two starting centre backs and a versatile full back is not much, but hopefully with the use of the Draft and TAM, the Fire will maximise the value available to them.
- There are starting quality centre backs with teams who are not going to get minutes next year - Chicago should be ensuring they take advantage of teams looking to move players they have too many of.
- Finally in my opinion, there’s still value in the players not yet taken in the waiver draft. Schuler and Anibaba aren’t perfect, but for the wages they are likely to take up they represent excellent opportunities and solid bases for a new central defensive partnership in Chicago for 2016.
Once again, thank you for reading!
Dollars and Decisions.
