Some Takeaways from the First Wave of Democratic Debates and Trends heading into the Second Wave
The Democratic party was left in shambles after a somewhat stunning defeat to Donald Trump. There were so many questions in the aftermath and as a whole the party felt very directionless.
Presenting an unpopular candidate like Clinton lead to Trump following the narrow pathway he had towards winning the nomination even with Clinton being the relative favorite in most polls. Many progressives and hispanics (pretty much everyone I know) were left shocked that this happened and felt legitimate fear for the future as Trump’s message of fear that led to him being elected by people who wanted to be safe established that same level of fear in those that he was attacking.
It’s been a few years and most of the fears that people had about Trump, at least socially, have come to light: kids being ripped away from their parents, removing DACA without proving an adequate replacement, almost going to war with North Korea, yet another sexual assault claim. Still, he has recently maintained an approval rating in the low 40’s and for all intends and purposes he is gearing up to launch a pretty strong incumbent campaign for re-election.
The party came in with some momentum in the 2018 election that landed them the House majority, but not the Senate majority. It still showed that there was some resistance towards what the president had done and planned on doing in the next few years.
The field is one that is very crowded with 20 candidates vying for one spot: The Democratic Nomination. It is fair to say that after the previous year’s results, everyone moment going forward was going to carry more weight to it ever before. The pool of candidates features seasoned veterans (Biden, Warren, Sanders), some promising (Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Castro, Beto), and some funky outsiders (Yang, Williamson).
Th debates were the first chance for the party’s presidential candidates to be put to their first test. The first series of debates, more than the ones that will eventually follow, will set the tone for the party going forward and hopefully answer a lot of the questions that Americans had after the 2016 election. Let’s see what happened and what to expect going forward.
Bernie Sanders’ Impact on the Party
It was very obvious how much the party has shifted more to the left with the questions about Universal Health Care being prevalent throughout both nights of the debates. A lot of the candidates supported some sort of plan that featured “Health Care for All” at some price or free. This concept was heavily pushed by the self-proclaimed socialist throughout his last campaign and has done so in this primary campaign. He wants to follow the model established by Canada and give every American free health care as a universal right. Candidates have tended to lean more towards the middle when asked about health insurance, but big names like Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have been big proponents of this plan. There has also been support from candidates when it comes to education being more heavily supported finically. It may not be making college free, but there have been more plans that would lead to noteworthy progress for students who need financial support in college.
Simply having these conversations and questions appear on the stage shows how much the party is listening to the Bernie supporters. He might not win the nomination and be able to prove this heavily socialist platform can lead to results, but his popularity on a young audience will likely lead to his ideals being carried out by some form.
Expect more questions that center around the policy ideas that have been pushed by Bernie. The Bernie revolution within the Democratic party shows no signs of slowing down in the Trump era.
The Kamala Harris moment happened
The debates can create momentum with stagnating or struggling campaigns that need a push to really get going. Harris wasn’t in the first tier of potential nominees, but there was a lot of expectation from within her administration that she was going to have a great debate. She did just that as she was the one that landed the biggest blow to the front-runner Joe Biden and was the name that everyone was talking about right after the debate. It was really impressive how she delivered the speeches that she did and how she commanded the stage that was billed as one that had many strong political figures like Bernie and Biden.
Still, she managed to work around the fact that she was not a big name through a stage presence that stole the show. Since the debates, her polling numbers have dropped 20% to 12%, but she is still doing better than before. With the debates happening tomorrow from the time of writing, it would not be shocking to see her have another surge after the debates. She still has to work out a few things from her campaign like sticking to position soldily and create a better pell grant plan. Kamala still provides a lot of potential due to her delivery tied with an ability to be malleable to the left or middle. How she tows this line will make or break her campaign because people will need to trust her at the end of the day. It’s going to take more than just winning one debate to be able to become the nominee for the party, but it has elevated her into the first tier and has become a legitimate contender.
Other standouts from the debates
Elizabeth Warren — She was the candidate with the highest polling numbers in the first night of the debate. Her performance early on was great, but she became invisible in the second half of the debates. She has coined the phrase “fundamental change” as she has co-signed many of Bernie’s ideas and is another one of these “change” candidates that is going after corporations and industries that need to be restructured. Warren is a candidate that will throw out policy after policy idea and that is her appeal. During the debates, she was able to do enough to stay in that first tier and center the conversation around her policy ideas without being attacked.
Cory Booker — Here is a candidate that benefitted from being scheduled on a “weak” first night of the debate. Booker was able to establish himself as a candidate that goes after corporations and focus in on small businesses that are established by lower income communities. The spanish wasn’t great and it felt forced, but hey, at least he tried? He is someone that appeals more towards moderates that lean left, but his stage presence was there and made the most out of the opportunity. Booker is something to look out for on the second wave of debates to see if he can build off a solid showing.
Julian Castro — A hispanic! His spanish was excellent and he laid out many open border policies to legalize border crossing and fix the immigration polices that lead to families being ripped apart. He also spoke on the pay gap and include helping hispanic countries via funding to improve quality of life so there won’t be such an influx of people wanting to cross. He is another example of someone that did well on night 1. He went after fellow Texan Beto O’Rourke for not being supportive on his immigration policies and this attack placed him as the top Texan at this debate.
Pete Buttigieg — As the mayor of South Bend, his rise as a candidate has been interesting to watch. He has had a lot of moment, but he didn’t have moment like Kamala Harris did. Instead, he did a pretty good job of outlining his plan aimed at education and to focus on making it be affordable to not go to college while still providing funding for school. He was solid, but he didn't really provide a sufficient answer when pressed about the shooting of a black man by the sheriff of the police in Indiana. The sheriff resigned, but he hadn’t during the debate. It was an awkward moment, but he could have handled the question better than he did. Apart from this, he did well to compared to another person who had a big media backing (see below). He still needs that moment to break through and I will be watching to see if he can deliver it.
The Chosen One struggled
Man, it seems like just yesterday when Beto was suppose to be the savior of the democratic party after he led a really inspiring campaign against Ted Cruz in Texas(!) and almost won. He had so much momentum and coverage throughout the build-up, but he’s had to restart his campaign a few times and hasn’t shown the person that motivated a republican-dominant state into an unlikely upset.
His performance on the debate stage was flat and the spanish was really bad for someone from Texas. His answers were not inspiring and he has to learn that it takes more than just feeling like you were born to run for president. He still has time to reenergize his campaign, but it’s going to need a better performance as a whole. He is more of a centrist candidate that has policy ideas that can lean left, but not as left compared to other change candidates. His platform was fuzzy and his appeal isn’t really there, but he can’t be counted out this early.
The Joe Biden Situation
“Joe cool” currently stands as the favorite with just above 30% of support heading in the second wave of debates. He is person polling the best out of any democrat in this field to defeat Trump. Biden has cemented himself as a “system” candidate that believes in this current system and that it can work. He was questioned by Senator Harris over his lack of support for busing and she hit him with an incredibly personal story. It was moving and Joe’s reaction revealed the main problem with Joe: he has to learn to take accountability instead of deflect to this record.
Yes, he has done some positive actions for civil rights. He did support legislation that is consider pro-civil rights. Still, the lack of apology really came off as him not acknowledging a mistake, a trait that any great leader has been able to demonstrate. He has done some things wrong as anyone who has been in politics as long as he has will have blemishes. There has to be some growth demonstrated at one point or another. Biden is the front-runner, but he will need to adjust if he really wants to win because Warren, Sanders, or Harris can capitalize if he has anymore splits.
As far as his performance goes, it was lackluster. He didn’t seem energized or handle attacks against him very well. The charisma that many people champion about him wasn’t there. He looked old out there. In a time where Trump is a viable threat for re-election, the party needs energy and “Joe Cool” needs to be shown more if the turnout is going to grow and capitalize off of disappointed or even angry Trump voters.
Smaller names to watch out for
Andrew Yang — Yang was the candidate that spoke the least out of anyone and only spoke about how he was going give every person in America 1,000 dollars a month. That was pretty much all that he was able to say. He was a name that intrigued me and others, but there was nothing to takeaway from the first set of debates. He has an audience, the Yang Gang, but its going to take more than a catchy tagline to get his campaign really going.
Amy Klobuchar — She really went after Trump anytime that she could. The Trump Attack meter was at 5 total shots. Her pell grant plan sounded very sound and she is a moderate for moderates which helps her when it comes to the election. She didn’t go after any other candidate, but she might use that energy she had against Trump and focus it against others. Her campaign needs a moment and she could deliver in this second round of debates.
Kirsten Gillibrand — No one attacked Trump more than Gillibrand. Her campaign is centered around women and fighting against corporations. There was a lot of energy coming from her and I just want to know if she can channel that into other policy ideas. I see potential with her, but it doesn’t seem likely that it will be realized.
Marie Williamson — #FreeWilliamson.
A mini preview of the second round
I’m going to keep this short since this article is going up hours away from the next debates. I expect Kamala Harris to shine again and handle the shots that will be thrown at her well. Sharing the stage with Biden again will be the challenge, but one that she is up for. I expect Warren to get the better of Sanders in night one of the debates since she has a variety of policies at her hand and Sanders is better matched up against a candidate in the middle. Both will do well, but I think Warren will assert herself more. Amy Klobuchar should have a big night as well since she is up against two change candidates that she can go after.
I’ll have another article of a similar format after the set of debates. Until then, talk some politics.
