The Myth of UNC Football Season Openers

No, Larry Fedora shouldn’t be fired because he isn’t Mack Brown, or whatever excuse you want to give.

UNC made the ~mistake~ of losing to California in the 2017 season and whoo boy did it open a social media can of worms. Fans from all over the lands immediately took to Twitter to tell all 15 of their collective followers about how Larry Fedora should be fired because he couldn’t beat California in a rebuilding year.

All of them like to pull one stat to the table, the infamous “UNC hasn’t won an FBS season opener since 2000” line. Well, let’s assess the why behind our failure against FBS teams.

2000: UNC 30 — Tulsa 9

The last time we beat an FBS team in a season opener. Well why can’t we repeat this, huh, Larry?

The fact of the matter is, this Tulsa team went 5–7. Their only wins came against Rice, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, San Jose State, and Nevada. This Tulsa team wasn’t good, at all. Using it as an example of UNC excellence is basically saying that this Tulsa team was necessarily better than a good FCS team. They weren’t.

The Losses

2001: UNC 27 — Oklahoma 41

2002: UNC 21 — Miami (Ohio) 27

2003: UNC 0— FSU 37

2005: UNC 21 — GT 27

2006: UNC 16 — Rutgers 21

2010: UNC 24 — LSU 30

2013: UNC 10 — South Carolina 27

2015: UNC 13 — South Carolina 17

2016: UNC 24–Georgia 33

The Facts

From 2001–2016, of the 9 FBS losses, 7 were against teams that had better records than UNC that season. The 2015 team finished with a significantly better record than USC and 2016 saw UNC and Georgia both finish at 8–5. For the most part, these losses were generally to teams that were actually better than us.

For example, 2001 Oklahoma finished 11–2 and won the Cotton Bowl. The 2006 Rutgers team was arguably the best season in school history with a 11–2 finish. This most recent loss doesn’t have a season to base things off of yet, but given that the Tar Heels are entering a rebuilding season, it would be unsurprising if Cal finished with a better record.

Larry Fedora Doesn’t Need to Go Anywhere

You might think that because Fedora has dropped a few season openers, he is a failure. You might think he doesn’t add up to the expectations of what you think UNC should be.

You’re wrong!

First, the 2013 South Carolina team finished 11–2 and was really good. Probably the best South Carolina team that we will see for some time. 2016, although it was a good season, saw Mitch Trubisky’s first start and there’s not a lot you can expect from a QB in his first start. Just as was the case in this season’s first game.

Secondly, Fedora has had the best winning percentage in his 5 years at UNC since Dick Crum in the 80’s.

Here’s each coach’s record since 1978:

Dick Crum: 72–41–3

Mack Brown: 69–46–1

Carl Torbush: 17–18

John Bunting: 27–45

Butch Davis: 28–23

Larry Fedora: 40–24

Fedora’s winning percentage is currently .026% better than Mack Brown’s. Also, it is even more impressive considering that no coach after Mack Brown was able to hold a 50% winning rate down. (Butch Davis did enough harm to not count)

Stop Your Fire Fedora Tweets

He’s done an excellent job. It’s pointless and there’s no real facts to back it.