2023 Web3 Bold Predictions: DeGods, y00ts, Dust Labs and DeLabs
Note: It took a few weeks to put this together, so some of the metrics and data might be a bit higher/lower in either direction. Regardless, it’s all on point for the analysis provided.
You can also check out my 2023 Predictions on a macro level here:
Market Value in ETH
Before we dive into predictions, it’s important to look at some numbers for a reference point:
DeGods Marketcap:
$67,820,000 = 54K ETH
(For the sake of simplicity I went with the full 10,000 here, including the 535 burned ones that will be resurrected over time.)
y00ts Marketcap (12,580 y00ts): $23,900,000 = 19K ETH
t00bs Marketcap: $9,270,000 = 7.39K ETH
Total y00ts Marketcap: $33,170,000 = 26.45K ETH
(Conflicting metrics on different websites about the y00ts + t00bs ratios and marketcaps. Not too much difference, combined both including the 535 yet to be released.)
y00ts are here.
(Get it?! Like “You are here”?)
As of the moment I’m writing this, y00ts would rank #22 on NFTgo.io’s Rankings for PFP projects.
DeGods would be #11.
Now let’s see where the Top 10 Solana projects combined rank if you remove the three DeLabs collections.
SOL NFTs Rank #2–5 + Rank #7–13 = $108m Marketcap = 86.1K ETH
All ten Solana NFT collections combined have a marketcap that would rank #9, right above DeGods at #11 and one rank below Bored Ape Kennel Club.
Add DeGods, y00ts and t00bs together and you get a close marketcap of 80.45 ETH right below it. They’d be fighting for the spot below Bored Ape Kennel Club.
Solana Gets to Breathe
Worth noting I started working on this post about two weeks ago, and the gap closed dramatically for SOL NFT’s.
And that’s great! The SOL community is piling into the other native projects as if it’s a slap back at DeGods.
I am excited to see it!
The only NFTs I own are on Solana (aside from a few testnet things for airdrops, just being 100% on point there). I want this ecosystem to succeed. I love the tech and what it can accomplish.
This moment in the SOL ecosystem of other projects climbing up and taking a larger share of the market reminds me of a pivotal moment for DeGods.
People who weren’t in the DeGods community missed a key part of the 2021 experience — Alpha Art was the only marketplace running the #PHBT.
If you’re not familiar with the Paper Hands Bitch Tax, it was the first game theory based concept for DeGods that failed miserably. Check out Frank’s recap here (also explains that 33.3% in the usernames of DeGods holders)
I assume it was technically possible for Magic Eden to implement the PHBT as they grabbed market dominance, but understandably it didn’t seem to be a priority.
A lot of those initial Discord VC chats with the DeGods team and community were about how to move forward.
“How much value is there in switching marketplaces for that extra exposure?”
“Is it worth sacrificing the #PHBT if that’s what’s needed to make it happen?”
Eventually, the answer to both was yes. And it worked out beautifully.
Man . . . it felt like DeGods was suffocated for so long that we didn’t even know what it was like to have the room to breathe. Having that space gave us the ability to grow into the current marketcap, then add another highly successful collection on top of it.
Watching Solana grow and move past DeGods, even before we’ve left, is giving me the same positive vibes for this ecosystem that I had during those first few hours when DeGods went live on Magic Eden.
A Necessary Breakup
At the start of 2022, I was a fully committed SOL Maxi. We had superior tech, a culture that encouraged utility to reward holders, and an amazing overall community that supported each other’s projects.
But from my vantage point as DeGods ascended to #1, it brought a lot of negative vibes. It’s not like this happened overnight in one fell swoop. When DeGods hit #1, it came from an influx of ETH buyers — this was before Okay Bears by the way.
DeGods only kept the #1 spot for a few days. But the effect on the new liquidity to the SOL ecosystem was remarkable:
The new bluechip buyers circulated their money around DeGods, SMB and DAA a few times. See the massive sales increase for SOL vs. ETH in that time period? Within those seven days the $80m marketcap for DeGods at #1 became the same value as the #5 project on the network.
The third time around, DeGods took #1 and kept it. It disrupted the established pecking order, and that didn’t go over well. For a few months there, the hate towards DeGods from the other bluechip communities got pretty bad.
I tried my best.
Tried to get everyone to look at the larger opportunity.
I tried some more. Frank tried too.
It got so tiresome that I started responding with cute puppies.
More pups.
When people acted nice, I’d post a BIG basket of puppies.
I dunno. I think I was trying to diffuse the tension and help the aggressive parties involved notice how dumb the whole thing was.
Eventually it settled down a bit as the SOL ecosystem came to terms with the fact that DeGods was firmly entrenched at #1.
But then, you know . . . drama over $DUST for y00ts, the delay of the mint, criticizing the y00ts art, royalties and so on. Despite best intentions and an amazing opportunity for growth in 2022, the NFT community on Solana went from extremely positive with mutually supportive projects to deeply toxic.
You can’t pin that on SBF. You can’t pin it on Frank. It’s like Hillary Clinton blaming her loss on Russia and Bernie Sanders: sometimes you gotta look in the mirror and admit it’s on you for bricking an easy layup.
It’s understandable psychology though. Let’s look at Bitcoin dominance for a reference point.
This is the weekly BTC chart along with a line showing the 70%-ish range DeLabs claimed within the Solana ecosystem at various times. Meaning: the range DeGods was in when it came to market dominance for volume on SOL often dwarfed Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall crypto market.
Watching it play out in real-time, I’m confident this was the catalyst for the toxicity.
- Existing bluechips raged against DeGods for disrupting the existing order by claiming #1 over their OG status.
- The DeGods community took the swagger too far and strayed from their roots of humility and creativity.
- The SOL community bashed on DeGods, the DeGods community fought back and got more aggressive, and the cycle perpetuated itself.
Not to mention top communities bashing on DeGods for the work put in by the team. With a fundamental misunderstanding of why the project is successful:
- DeGods was built differently with yes, hype cycles. But combined with reinvesting that revenue into returning value to holders.
- Projects not built to return that level of value to holders bashed on DeGods for the wrong reasons.
- To this day, there’s an inability to recognize the dominance of the DeGods is due to the paradigm shift of putting value created for holders as top priority.
Or the ol’ “What has DeGods built anyway?” line. That spot was earned by:
- 1. Creating something of value and
- 2. Returning as much of that value to holders as possible
The art for DeadGods and y00ts is something you “build”, just like any brand outside of Web3.
By the way: anyone saying “$DUST is a Ponzi” is legitimately saying art by SCUM (scum.art) jonnydegods, sircandyapple (candyapple.art/) and PENCILZ is worthless. It’s insulting.
Awkward but relevant transition:
No one looks at BTS and says “Guys . . . you didn’t build anything here. It’s Apple, iOS and YouTube that let you make all that money thanks to distribution.”
BTS isn’t my thing. I doubt I’ll ever listen to one of their songs. But outside Web3, this is considered “building something”. The brand managers take the lead and work with the dev team to build out that vision.
Art is “building something”. So is creating something people want to pay for. DeLabs has done all of this extremely well over the last year, then given much of that work to their holders for free as a reward. That’s why they’ve been successful.
There’s been too much misunderstanding and poor communication between DeLabs and the rest of Solana. It’s not a healthy environment at this point. The divorce really is best for both parties.
We’ve already seen Solana healing and thriving as DeLabs leaves. Just like DeGods when it moved from Alpha Art to Magic Eden, SOL now has room to breathe without DeLabs taking up so much space. As someone who still loves what Solana does, and what it can do, I’m happy to see it.
Just the same, DeLabs projects will no longer be stuffed into a small space where they take up too much room and piss off everyone else who lives there. DeGods now has room to grow, stretch and breathe too.
The move benefits both sides. I intend to stay within the Solana ecosystem, along with getting to know the lay of the land with Polygon.
y00ts Carries the Baton
Once Upon a Time, a Solana project called DeGods wanted to become a bluechip.
Unfortunately, it was based on a dumb idea.
But somehow, even with that failure, they had an enthusiastic community of badass, brilliant creators who were passionate about DeGods.
They made awesome stuff even through a 5 SOL floor and volume of 1–3 sales per day.
It was a bluechip community lacking a bluechip team to take full advantage.
Finally in 2022, that disparity was solved. By the end of the year, the community was under a brand umbrella of the three top collections that dominated volume on Solana.
But with success comes comfort and complacency.
The once thriving, creative community showing off their different skills, ways of life and talents got shoehorned into being a 2D “frat” with no depth.
It got to a point where the very idea of those creative strengths becoming a growth catalyst for the community became laughable.
Many y00ts holders are seeing a move to Polygon as a downgrade in opportunities.
Looking back on 2021 and the energy this community still has?
I strongly disagree.
That 2021 DeGods energy had nothing close to the resources and opportunities afforded by DeLabs tools and access to some of the world’s most recognizable billion dollar companies on Polygon. Without any of those advantages, DeGods still created a culture people didn’t want to leave.
We’ve already seen that energy is alive and well in y00ts, just within its first few months. I’m confident the move to Polygon will be the extra rocket fuel it needs to get to a whole new level.
People like me from the OG DeGods community who thrived off an environment of pushing and clawing to earn a spot are still around. We’ll gravitate towards the same spirit involved with y00ts.
The challenge for DeGods twelve months ago was just to survive. y00ts has far less urgency. Creativity thrives in a relaxed environment that doesn’t involve depleting funds ticking down the clock to inevitable brand death.
y00ts desperately needs to have its own identity on a network entirely separate from DeGods. And I couldn’t think of a better landing spot than an undeveloped ecosystem with low price points similar to Solana, and wide open opportunities to build everything.
I’m psyched to build:
The project’s value.
The ecosystem’s value.
Value from trait clubs.
Maximizing opportunities presented by direct access to some of the biggest brands in the world looking for guidance and exposure from creative people who know this stuff.
People like us.
Creative types will gravitate towards the foundation set up by y00ts to establish opportunities for creating businesses, networking, and the value of premium content. All through aligned incentives.
y00ts Gains > DeGods Gains
So let’s do some more marketcap math, shall we? Current floor prices as I write this:
y00ts: $2,115
DeGods: $7,664
Off the bat, a DeGod is worth 3.62 y00ts! That’s crazy.
A 4x from this point:
y00ts: $8,460
DeGods: $30,656
The USD peak value for a DeGod was at about $35,000. Four days later, it crashed to that $21K level before dropping even more.
It only reached that $21K level one more time during the t00bs mint, when a DeGod baked in that value attached to it (roughly $3,000 post-mint)
See those blue circles? It’s the value of a y00t around the $8,460 (4x) point from here, overlayed on the DeGods price history chart.
Those points are the absolute bottom for DeGods since the release of DeadGods, excluding the FTX crash (which it’s now recovering from).
A 4x for y00ts is at the most rock solid, lowest support level for DeGods.
A 4x for DeGods is at the $30,000 mark it was only able to sustain for a few days.
It’s the Bitcoin model of diminishing returns: a parabolic rise from $0 to $1T is amazing. But then moving from $1T to $2T becomes far more difficult. y00ts has a much easier climb to outdo DeGods in terms of ROI percentage.
I know, I know . . . “Okay but Polygon has no liquidity for NFTs!”
y00ts Brings Volume to Polygon
Anyone saying Polygon has no volume and can’t grow probably has limited experience with an EVM wallet over the last six months. There are plenty of crosschain bridges for ETH to MATIC that are decentralized and much faster than native MATIC bridges. Check out orbiter.finance, stargate.finance and synapseprotocol.com for just a few examples.
Like I mentioned here, I’ve used the ETH network and sidechains more than I expected in the last few months. Mainly for DeFi. And I avoid mainnet ETH as much as possible, which is almost always doable. It’s just not worth it when you can do all the same stuff on L2’s without the gas fees.
I’ll also point out that most DeFi platforms support all compatible sidechains like Arbitrum and Optimism. In fact, you’ll usually get better yield there since those sidechains are looking to lock up more liquidity.
So this is old hat for me. And buying NFTs on Polygon requires one step to transfer your assets. Same wallet, same address, just switching your ETH to a different chain.
This isn’t exactly a barrier of entry for ETH buyers to come onto Polygon once it has attractive NFTs.
Polygon has the fifth largest TVL on DeFi platforms (and last I checked Tron at #2 has its own sketchy algo-USD coin that accounts for a lot of its volume).
Many prominent people in the NFT space have mentioned that ETH buyers are far more comfortable purchasing things in ETH vs. SOL. Getting into the SOL ecosystem requires buying SOL on exchange, downloading a new wallet, adjusting to a new marketplace. A lot more steps compared to ETH => Polygon.
It’s all upside here for y00ts: first movers in a new ecosystem with lots of capital and big name partners.
But it’s a barren wasteland, right? How do you grow something there?
DeLaunchpad and the y00ts Community are a Game Changer for Polygon
I’ve made a point to dip my toes into the water in the Polygon NFT community, and it’s been a super positive experience. I have every intention of cultivating that positivity on my end with genuine intentions.
I have zero experience with the big boy sandbox of ETH NFTs, and no intentions of diving into that deep end. Never say never of course! Who knows, maybe DeGods gets up to a crazy valuation and I have enough funds to get in with the right networking.
But as of right now, my “bankroll” set aside for Web3 assets makes the ETH buy-in far too expensive for my comfort. Much less when I’m coming in cold with none of the continuity or feel for what ETH’s dynamics are like vs. a prior life as a SOL NFT maxi.
By contrast, Polygon is more or less a clean slate. That’s far more my vibe: helping to build something together with likeminded people at a level of humble origins. Plus having that continuity of narrative/the people and projects involved from the beginning will make it a much easier ecosystem for me to navigate and thrive in as it grows.
Besides, even if I was with the Kings of Solana in 2022, in the land of ETH NFTs we are still from the chain “For the Poors” in 2023. That’s my vibe. Not the high-rollers table.
I think we’ll get off the plane, look around Polygon, and decide this looks like a comfortable place to live. No need to move to the expensive big city, we can just go there as needed.
The launchpad will make y00ts the focal point of the Polygon ecosystem. People saying “No one will want to be there” as an absolute isn’t thinking about everything Polygon has to offer, along with the reputation of success DeLabs earned. There’s a reason why multiple blockchains were bidding for the grant to bring over y00ts.
This isn’t rocket science. Growing Polygon’s NFT ecosystem will happen by taking the skills we’ve learned through experience and putting in the work; both from the team level and as a community.
“Alright DOOMbot . . . enough with the wall of text. Number Go Up?”
Obv.
1 DeGod > BTC
Looking back on the charts I don’t think we hit this mark for even one minute. Which is truly remarkable given a DeGod only needed a little extra push and/or BTC a small drop to close a $450 gap.
As I write this, only the top three projects have a floor price greater than one Bitcoin.
At some point in 2023, I think we’ll see the price of the DeGod floor get to that level. Partially from my thesis that NFTs as a whole will perform better than the traditional crypto market — but also I’ve lived the peaks of DeGods (along with the inevitable valleys that followed), and I’ve seen how crazy the buzz can get.
But can 1 DeGod > 1 BTC become a sustained price level?
DeLabs and Dust Labs Bring DeGods and y00ts Right Behind Yuga
Between having first dibs at software and a team that’s gotten in their reps with art, branding, marketing and return on investment to holders, you couldn’t ask for a better market advantage. It’ll plant DeLabs firmly behind Yuga.
DUST gains > y00ts gains > DeGods gains
Of course these all have fluctuations so I’m not saying from this point to 12/31 it’ll play out this way. But I do think $DUST is the most undervalued asset out of all three.
Plenty of potential utility that’s easy to piece together.
DeGods and y00ts Grab #1 and #2 in the World . . . IF the Communities Makes it Happen
Santa Frank can only bring you so far to the promised land. Eventually, you gotta put in the extra push to get there.
See my “Venn diagram is just two circles” tweet below.
The DeGods Identity Crisis
The path for y00ts is clear, with a welcoming environment and little resistance from the new terrain or the natives.
I can look at the development of clubs for y00ts right now, even without most of the upcoming Dust Labs tools, and see how it fits a new blockchain like a glove. The brand has a friendly, welcoming and cooperative vibe. Plugging it into Polygon in its current environment is perfect.
DeGods on the other hand? Don’t get me wrong, it’ll crush it in 2023.
The art will be the best out of all the bluechip collections and stand out. Being able to switch between male and female versions will create plenty of buzz both in and out of the Web3 bubble (hello Los Angeles and mainstream PR opportunities!)
Beyond that? I have no idea what happens with the community.
The essence of DeGods made a pivot in March 2022 when Aussie Guy brought up shoeys on the first episode of DeGodCast. The brand and tone progressed into being “a frat”.
And it worked! DeGods was doing great without that shift, but it got to the next level as a club people wanted to be a part of.
It’s not my vibe, but I get the vision behind it: people from successful careers miss the camaraderie of frat life they had in college. The opportunity to relive that in a way that’s far more enjoyable and fun than back then is worth a high price tag. And this demographic can afford it!
But jumping from “frat of degens drinking shoeys” to “luxury frat item for networking between the wealthy” isn’t an easy one.
Here’s some context: someone in my professional network serves as the National President of the frat he belonged to in college. Twenty years later they have IRL meetups on both the regional and national level. A few times a year they have big meetups.
And it’s a networking opportunity for professionals.
These are guys with masters degrees in high paying jobs — the same demographic that would pay top dollar to join an NFT club that fits their vibe.
They have already “made it”.
The DeGods community has that level of professionals. But most of us are in this to “make it” — life changing money to be specific. That kind of money for us has to be provided by people who have it, and want to be a part of a culture worth the price tag.
I haven’t been shy about saying that if DeGods is going to be a luxury item with a community to match, we need to build that vibe.
The irony in all this is that Aussie Guy started the shoey movement, and he drastically cut down/stopped drinking. Right now he’s crazy motivated to kick ass in Web3 and make shit happen.
There’s some symbolism there to learn from for sure. Nothing wrong with keeping the foundation, but the outside needs to grow and evolve as the environment changes and opportunities present themselves.
DeGods should still be DeGods. It shouldn’t be a PG movie with rainbows and unicorns.
This right here? It’s going to be fucking insane.
It can easily co-exist with the emotional maturity of knowing what you represent, and doing your part to be a net positive. There’s only so much Frank can do to shape the community. The blueprint relies on us to be the value prop making membership worth the cost.
Let’s illustrate this properly.
- “Lambo Money” = About $250K
- If you want to sell your DeGod for Lambo Money, it requires the community to have a level of status worth that six figure spend.
Here’s the thing about people who will pay you for it at that price level:
For you, it’s lifechanging money.
For them, it’s disposable income.
That kind of money doesn’t come out of thin air. It comes from selling a high-priced asset to someone who can afford it and sees that level of value in owning it.
“Blah blah blah, it’s only a small part of the community”. I get it. But 2023 is our chance to make life-changing money, and I’m not going to let 5% of us fuck it up for the rest. We get one chance to make it happen.
At the end of the day, this is the Good Feels Business. That’s what we’re selling. The DeGods community has a diamond grip because we know the price isn’t correlated to its value.
But right now, a DeGod ain’t a Lambo. It’s Frank’s 2014 Honda CR-V.
No shade to Frank, it’s got excellent reviews and looks like a great choice!
But you get my point here. The good news is there’s lots of room for DeGods to climb to a value well above Frank’s sweet ride once we move to ETH. I have every expectation that will happen.
But if you want Lambo money? You gotta dress for the job you want, not the job you have. Then fuck yes, do a shoey with the guy who just bought it to celebrate his entry into your exclusive, elite level club.
So pick one: help create a luxury item, or prioritize being a prick to people inside and outside the community.
One is selfish, the other ensures we’re all pulling towards the same goal. You can’t have both.
This isn’t FUD, because it doesn’t take much to get there. We just need to be mindful of how we treat other people, and the perception of our community. I shouldn’t be getting DMs from respected people in this space independently saying “Heh. Well that’s DeGods for you” with a shrug emoji when someone representing us does something shitty.
This is DeGods. Top of the food chain gigachad shit being creative and growing a 3m following on TikTok.
You don’t need to change the culture. Just be elevate the brand and be mindful we’re about to play in a whole new league.
And when we do?
Like most things Web3, a peak will come in a moment of exponential growth. Once we get the ball rolling down the correct lane, it doesn’t take much momentum to achieve liftoff.
DeGods Revival Through y00ts Software
When it comes to all the issues I mentioned above? This right here will help a lot.
Ironically, the platform created for y00ts is going to be even more essential for DeGods.
I’ve been a vocal presence in DeGods since the beginning and don’t have a top trait (or ten DeGods for that matter!) So I have very little visibility to these side clubs. When I’ve had a peek, I’ve seen a brilliant group that doesn’t fit the perception DeGods had from most outsiders throughout 2022.
I have a solid network in this space and I enjoy doing my part by sharing alpha, bouncing around ideas and getting knowledge from smart people. But the segmentation of the DeGods community puts me in a spot where I can’t do that.
We still have the same quality level of big-brain, accomplished and creative professionals in our community from that big #DeGodsWeek thread I posted for y00ts.
That other 95% of our community needs to be out in the open representing DeGods and setting the tone. Especially for those who are thinking about buying in. Having those clubs in a spot where they can be found and it’s organized where people can see it will do wonders for the brand vs. a group Twitter chat that’s completely invisible.
From there, hopefully we can all be more visible as a unified group regardless of our trait clubs.
The Seasonal Art Meta Debut
Fuck yes. Here for it.
Like I said up there, we are in the Good Feels Business. It’s hard to beat an experience like this.
There’s a strong point of comparison that needs to be made here.
The y00ts and DAA Egg mint websites were amazing experiences and really well done. There’s a reason we’ve seen similar responses with the same level of excitement from those mints all over Twitter.
But seasons for DeGods and y00ts are a whole other level of emotional dopamine. Yes, the art from DeadGod “fucks” (that’s how you kids use it, right?) That’s the steak. The substance.
But the secret spices, proprietary to DeLabs at the moment: make it into an experience through the excitement of transforming your “Forever PFP”.
These moments aren’t a new mint, or burning one old art for another collection. This is your PFP, the image you use to represent yourself, getting an upgrade based on its traits. Every year.
When you pushed that DeadGods Transcend button, there was a moment of excitement to see what the new “you” looked like, designed by the best PFP artists in the business who constantly strive for perfection and have the wisdom to learn from past success and mistakes.
DeGods III
It felt like DeadGods was the only art release in 2022 that was universally praised for its quality. That’s why the collection got to #1. Reaching that standard a second time will be difficult, especially with SCUM out of the mix.
But the comic book industry sees artists inevitably move on, making way for a new style from a fresh artist. Given what the DeadGods work did for SCUM’s exposure in the 1/1 scene, I’m sure there will be a line of highly talented artists looking to bring their own flavor to the next set. Especially now that we’re expanding to ETH.
On subject: if you’re one of the few who thinks Female DeGods in Season III is “woke bullshit”, you are legitimately saying:
- You don’t want to take a chance to dominate the bluechip class for an asset with luxury status in a market with practically zero identity value to 50% of the population.
- You’d like DeGods to remain a sausage fest.
You’re gonna get new male art.
No one is forcing you to use the female version.
It’s a cool experiment trying something new that no other project has done before.
It’s the most on-brand thing possible for DeGods, and we’re doing it as we sit down at the high-rollers table for the first time.
Do you . . . want to win sir?
At Least One DeGod Sells for $1.33m
. . . or more.
(Though please give me some range on this one! Give or take a few $10K lower.)
DeHouse
I honestly can’t predict what will happen here. Your guess is as good as mine.
The DeLabs team was able to gather 90+ people in the LA area for a bonfire meetup with about 24 hours notice. That’s some powerful shit. Between the location of the team and the vibe of the city, Los Angeles is easily the best landing spot for the first DeHouse.
Best of all: LA is home to the two different demographics that will be attracted to the DeLabs brand vibes.
If the mission for DeGods is to flip Bored Apes, it needs to succeed by becoming a community for people who have already made it.
y00ts will succeed by becoming a community for people who want to make it.
Status and luxury meets creativity and drive (with plenty of crossover!) in the same elite club hangout spot. Creating genuine friendships and building cool shit together.
I’m here for it. And if you’re not excited for trying new shit and seeing what happens?
You don’t understand DeGods.
