ESL One Hamburg 2018 and DreamLeague Minor Data Analysis
Overview
I am back again, this time I have added the Last hit stat for reference of the creep pushing power, hope it works. On the other hand, the meta has shifted so much after the 7.19d patch that there are some interesting findings, for example, the most picked and banned list are mostly different, which is a very rare case. And the meta is changed to not only lane focused, teamfight have also became a very important part of the mid-game, which causes many teamfight-oriented heroes being contested. 311 and jungler are some what back to meta too.
Among the 143 games, 100 out of 115 heroes are being picked, and 13 hero is completely untouched — neither picked nor banned.
Most Picked Heroes
Phoenix is still the most picked hero, there was a slight nerf in 7.19c but it doesn’t look enough. As we can see from the stats, she has the highest 1.42 damage/gold, she is also very good at creep clearing and healing, and has a game-changing ultimate for teamfight. Phoenix is very good on theory for the current meta, but resulted in a rather low win rate 42%, she still depends on how the team play around it.
7.19c
Level 15 Talent reduced from +50 Fire Spirits DPS to +40
Tiny is the most OP hero right now from many pro’s point of view, simply because he does very high magical and physical burst at the same time with absurdly low item requirement. And that is why he has a very high damage/gold.
He can also played as support, which make him extremely flexible, and have been first picked a lot. One of the example is the Grand Finals of DreamLeague Minor, the team pick Tiny always won.
Terrorblade is still the best hard carry in this meta, you can easily notice it by how well he siege the buildings. His tower damage is the highest among all heroes. Terrorblade was nerfed in 7.19d, which makes his win rate to drop a bit, but I believe he will still dominate the top-tier carry pick because other unbanned hard carry is not at the same level.
7.19d
Conjure Image mana cost increased from 70 to 70/75/80/85
Reflection slow reduced from 25% to 20%
Sunder mana cost increased from 200/100/0 to 200/100/50
Level 15 Talent reduced from +300 Health to +250
Invoker come to the list and becoming one of the best mid laner. With very flexible QW/QE build, Invoker can choose to go for a quick-fighting build or a mid-game teamfight machine, which make him a popular pick.
Most Banned Heroes
Morphling is the most banned carry hero, clearly it is due to his flexibility, survivability and the early fighting power.
Enigma used to be an powerful offlaner and now sometimes play as support too. His ability to deny creeps, push the lane and the threat of Blackhole makes him very hard to deal with in the current meta. We can see it from his extremely high 64% win rate.
Weaver is ridiculous now, apart from being the most difficult-to-catch carry, support Weaver is a thing now, the reset ability of Aghanim’s Timelapse heavily counters the long cooldown teamfight ability in this meta, for example Phoenix’s Super Nova . This makes him one of the most flexible pick in the meta, I expect him to be banned even more. The nerf in 7.19d is nothing for him.
7.19d
Shukuchi mana cost increased from 60 to 70
Drow Ranger is still in the list but she is falling off hard, her win rate have dropped from around 68% to only 40%. Although she have been slightly nerfed, but the main reason is that people found ways to counter her. The most impressive one was the Pangolier pick from Tigers. From the stats we can see her hero damage and tower damage is very disappointing, it is like having one more support which consumes the space for farming.
7.19d
Marksmanship agility bonus reduced from 40/60/80 to 35/55/75
Highest Win Rate Heroes (pick ≥ 5 )
Venomancer acted as a counter pick, and in those match up, he does very good hero damage, tower damage and is very difficult to kill at the same time. It looks like teams should consider picking him more often.
Legion Commander is played as support occasionally, focusing on saving teammate or lock down an enemy. It seems to be working in some match up but I think this will not become a trend.
Ursa is not back yet, but he is also played as support occasionally, which becomes a super lane harasser, like a 4th core.
Shadow Demon is always a very strong hero but until now the Pro scene discovered his potential. In my opinion, every combo we see Bane can do, Shadow Demon can also do it with even more aggression.
Same as Axe and Enigma, Magnus is back as one of the best offlaner and teamfigher, and he can even be picked in first phase. I am expecting to see him more in the KL Major.
Lowest Win Rate Heroes (pick ≥ 5 )
We are very surprise to see Broodmother here, but yes, after people discover the double Stout Shield on a melee hero can almost ignore the Spiders, Broodmother is having big trouble now.
Double Stout Shield on melee heroes have a 75% chance to block 20 damage, where Spiderling and Spiderite deal 10 and 16 damage at max, meaning 75% of the damage can be ignored.
Visage is also dropped very hard, because of his bad laning, he is too slow to come online, and teams are much better dealing with familiars now, which makes Visage failing to perform.
Without any nerfs, Winter Wyvern is simply out of meta. One of the problem is that, teams are better to take her down first in teamfights, causing her low K+A/D, and in fact she is not very good at escaping.
Hard carry are now back to the meta, Luna is tried by many teams when Terrorblade, Phantom Lancer and Morphling are picked or banned. The result is not satisfied, she is still having problem to survive in the teamfight to deal enough damage before her death.
Highest Pick Rate Increase
The only interesting hero to us is Dazzle, some team like Secret may play him as mid, but he is also a very good support now. Since the buff in 7.18, he is slowly coming back to the meta, with Poison Touch duration refresh, he can harass in lane pretty well, with the early healing power, he is definitely helping for early push strategies.
7.18
Base damage spread reduced from 41–59 to 47–53
Poison Touch damage rescaled from 10/24/38/52 to 16/28/40/52
Another amazing thing is that almost all the hero in this list are also listed in the most contested hero list, it totally show how much the meta have shifted.
Highest Pick Rate Decrease
Earthshaker is not exactly performing badly, but when stronger teamfight heroes being picked, and more BKB carries are picked, he is not very suitable for the meta now.
Ursa, Dark Willow, Vengeful Spirit, Enchantress and Spectre is the victom of heavy nerf, Enchantress can be considered as over nerfed.
Others are just banned too hard.
See you next time after the major.
