As much as I love mock drafts, anything coming before March is white noise. Granted, white noise that I LOVE and eat up every time, but white noise nonetheless. Waiting until April to post mocks is an act of self-discipline because if I allowed myself to start when I wanted to — June— I would flood every corner of the internet with mock drafts every single day of my life. Instead, you’re getting four — one a week until the draft. So I present the first one, coming towards the conclusions of the pro-day cycle.
It’s Trevor. That’s the post. Next.
Some people believe the draft starts at two. Those people would be incorrect. Some people believe that the draft SHOULD start at two. Those people would also be incorrect. Zach Wilson was incredible last season. His physical tools and football IQ would be enough to put him in the conversation for first overall in almost any other year. Lucky for the team picking second, this isn’t one of those years. His elite arm strength and deep ball is just what the Jets have been needing.
No Mac Jones? No Mac Jones. I don’t know who started the rumor that it was but the idea begins and ends with “Mac is kind of like Kirk Cousins”. It’s an impressive mixture of lazy and galaxy brains. Kyle Shanahan has alluded to wanting to evolve at the quarterback position and take a more modern approach. Only two QBs available fit that bill — Fields and Trey Lance. The popular pick right now is the latter but there’s a lot of overthinking going on. The 49ers mortgaged their future on this pick in a big way. Fields has been extremely consistent at Ohio State and despite what parts of the internet and grouchy commentators would have you believe, is the safer pick. You don’t give up what the 49ers did to take a player with only one year of experience, especially when said player missed all of last season.
Here’s where we start getting interesting. The Falcons restructured Matt Ryan’s contract, effectively tying themselves to him for two more seasons. Do you take a QB only to sit him for half his contract? Not at fourth overall you don’t. Pitts is the best tight end prospect in (at least) a generation. The three-headed monster of Julio-Ridley-Pitts will be an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses. Atlanta has bigger needs but Arthur Smith is going to want to come out guns blazing and revitalize a fanbase that is still utterly deflated from, well, you know.
My eyes are closed. My hands are over my ears. I’m singing “Landslide” like I’m Nick Miller. This is the pick. It HAS to be the pick. Sewell is as elite of a tackle prospect as they come. Sure, yeah, Jonah Williams blah blah blah. If someone offers me $20, I don’t say “no thanks I already have $10”. Kick Jonah inside to guard and let Sewell anchor Burrow’s blindside. That is the definition of killing two birds with one stone, as the Bengals upgrade massively at two positions with this one pick. Ja’Marr Chase would be fun, of course, but the Bengals have to secure their offensive line before anything else.
Miami trades down from three to six and gets the guy they were after all along. Chase is special. The worst I can say about him is his height won’t ever create a mismatch. But his athleticism sure will. And his hands. And his route running. The Dolphins are desperate for a playmaker and while the Will Fuller signing was a nice bandaid, it’s not a long-term fix. Chase is a franchise receiver. It’s been said a hundred times but I’m saying it again: think about how good Justin Jefferson is, now think about how he wasn’t the best receiver at LSU. Perhaps a year without a game has made some people forget how astounding Chase is, but any doubters will be swiftly reminded come Sundays.
We have a trade! Bill Belichick experienced his first losing season since 2000 and he did not care for it. The Patriots give up a future first and third, plus their first and third this year, and move up for their next franchise QB. Lance’s biggest concern is lack of experience — both against quality competition and in general, with only 17 starts to his name. But what he lacks in experience he makes up for in raw talent. He’s got a terrific arm, great mobility, and a high football IQ. New England was aggressive in free agency and it’s clear they don’t believe in Cam Newton long term so I have no reason to expect their aggression won’t carry over into the draft.
Fans hoping for a sexy and exciting pick here may be disappointed. No Fields. No Lance. Not even Pitts. But ending up with Rashawn Slater is one hell of a consolation prize. He’s the best overall offensive lineman in the class, which is perfect for the Panthers considering they need help at multiple positions. Slater is a top-tier tackle who could slide right in and replace Greg Little. He’s also the best interior prospect and could start out at guard before shifting inward to center which might be his ideal position. If you aren’t taking a franchise quarterback this year, you need to do your absolute best to set him up for success next season.
There is a lot of debate as to whether or not the Broncos should draft a quarterback in the first round, though there’s not a lot of people saying they will. The Denver offense is under a lot of pressure to perform this season but if they deliver on their potential, the Broncos can comfortably move forward with core pieces set instead of forcing a full rebuild. The defense on the other hand has a lot of question marks. With Von Miller and Kareem Jackson not likely to play for Denver after this season, they’re in search of not just another impact player but someone they can anchor the franchise around. Parsons has some off-the-field red flags but if those concerns can be put to rest I can’t imagine Denver passing on a chance to draft the best inside linebacker in the draft. It’s a position of need and Parsons is a perfect fit for Vic Fangio.
It’s not hard to find the holes in the Cowboys roster. Take one look at the depth chart and tell me your eyes don’t freeze at “31-year-old special teamer starting at cornerback”. This pick, like a lot of the Cowboys picks in recent history, makes perfect sense. They need a CB1. Their CB2 is Surtain’s former teammate. It’s not rocket science.
The Giants, in need of a spark off the edge, take a risk on an elite athlete who has yet to turn his ability into consistent production. Every year a couple of players use their workout to propel them much higher than initially predicted and I’m not sure anyone helped themselves more on pro day than Oweh did. It’s a risk to take an athlete this raw this early but when Gettleman has a guy, he doesn’t fool around and risk losing him to another team. I trust Patrick Graham’s ability to get the most out of a player like Oweh.
The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts a chance to prove he’s worth investing in. While part of that means surrounding him with a strong supporting offensive cast, the Eagles are doing their offense a disservice by not addressing their defensive woes. Jaycee Horn might end up being the best corner in the draft and would immediately provide relief to a secondary in need of a playmaker.
Joe Burrow wasn’t the only rookie QB running for his life. No QB came under pressure more often than Herbert did last year. Corey Linsley will help repair their offensive line but it’s going to take more than that. Trey Pipkins ain’t it. Kick him inside and have him compete for guard or move him to right tackle to sit behind Bulaga, but they’ve got to upgrade Herbert’s blindside protector. Darrisaw has the unfortunate honor of being in a class with Sewell and Slater. If not for that, he would easily be considered the top tackle and a surefire top ten pick.
Another player who helped himself greatly during his pro day, Jenkins is an absolute mauler who plays with that Marshawn Lynch mentality. While not the most refined pass blocker, Jenkins may legitimately be the best run blocker in the draft. Vikings could switch around their offensive line or even kick Jenkins inside. Wherever they decide to stick him, Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook couldn’t be happier with this pick.
The Lions take a page out of Chris Grier’s book and trade down for the guy they were going to take anyway. There are concerns about Smith’s size and how he will translate to the NFL which fuels his fall. However, there are no questions about his game. Smith is an absolute stud who had such a dominant season that he won the Heisman as a wide receiver. The Lions traded for Jared Goff and while they aren’t married to him, it would be unreasonable to assume they wouldn’t try and make things work. The Lions bafflingly let Kenny Golladay walk only to replace him with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. For the sake of Lions fans, Jared Goff, and the career of Brad Holmes, I have to assume they aren’t done adding to their receiver room.
I’m not one to buy into the Waddle hype; I don’t think he’s in the conversation at six for Miami and I don’t think he ever was. That said, Waddle at 16, especially to the Cardinals, should give people flashbacks to last year’s draft when the Cowboys managed to get CeeDee Lamb at 17. Arizona is gearing up for an aggressive run. I don’t know if their window extends beyond this year. Receiver is by no means a position of need but for a team that’s going to have to lean heavily on their high octane offense to win, having Jaylen Waddle as your WR2/3 is too good to pass up.
While the Raiders are historically full of surprises (read: reaches), I don’t think they get too crazy here. Free safety is a massive need and completes their secondary. Linebacker is an appealing pick here but I don’t think the Raiders are going to risk losing out on a safety like Moehrig.
While I’m normally not on board with a running back in the first round, the Dolphins find themselves perfectly situated to be an exception to the rule. They’re flushed with picks and youth and Harris is just too good to risk missing out on. Last year was all about building the defense, 2021 is all-in on offense. The Phins get a franchise WR1 in Ja’Marr Chase and double up on weapons here by getting a stud RB that could very well be the next Derrick Henry.
No Mac Jones? No Mac Jones. While I don’t think Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to magically become a franchise quarterback at 38 (though wouldn’t that be fun), Washington is in a position to give him his first playoff berth ever. This defense is stacked and adding a few choice positions could be more than enough to carry this team back into the post-season. JOKer is versatile and perfect for Ron Rivera’s scheme. He’s a swiss-army-knife player and would be an absolute stud in Washington.
No Mac Jones? No, Mac Jones! I know, between Andy Dalton and Nick Foles the Bears QB situation is already brimming with excitement, but Pace and Nagy are out here fighting for their jobs and a one-year deal to Andy Dalton isn’t going to save them. The best you can hope for is Dalton proving to be enough of an upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky to drag them back to the playoffs. This should inspire hope that Nagy can get it done with Mac Jones, who by all means is an upgrade over both of them. Otherwise, they’ll just find themselves in this same situation next year.
Following the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, the Colts are trotting out Sam Tevi or Julie’n Davenport at left tackle. That needs to change as soon as possible. Sam Cosmi is an athletic beast with good technique and a consistent ability to finish at the next level. His agility makes him a great fit for Frank Reich and while his play strength isn’t ideal, it improved drastically from 2019 to 2020 and it’s very reasonable to assume he’s not done improving.
And the rest AFC South sighs in defeat. Bateman is a surefire first-round receiver who I’ve seen as high as WR2 in the draft. Bateman isn’t just a replacement for Corey Davis, he’s an upgrade. With reliable hands, razor-sharp release, and great athleticism, Bateman can pair with AJ Brown and give the Titans an incredibly frustrating WR duo for opposing defenses.
AVT can start day one alongside Mekhi Becton and give the Jets an incredibly powerful duo on the left side. It’s hard to get a gauge on AVT and even I’m not totally sure where he stacks up for me just yet. But what I am sure about is his wide frame and play strength are a tremendous asset and a quality that Joe Douglas loves. They aren’t going to make the same mistakes they made with Darnold; Wilson is going to be properly protected.
The door is still open for Alejandro Villanueva to return but even if he doesn’t, the Steelers need to shore up their interior. Dickerson is a stud and the best pure center in the draft. He is a wall in run defense and a model of consistency against power rushers. His injury history is cause for a bit of concern but his leadership and character cannot be called into question. He remains healthy and he’ll be a rock for the Steelers OL for years.
While not officially announced as a 3–4 defense, their roster, signings, and hires all point to a major scheme shift. But regardless of what scheme they’re playing, they need what Christian Barmore has. His play is violent, calculated, and explosive. Barmore possesses ideal size and all the usual traits of the annual stud Alabama defensive tackle. Knocks on him include over-eager tackling leading to misses and less than ideal experience, but for what he put on tape, he’s not done improving and his incredibly productive 2020 season is indicative of a player that’s going to grow into a dangerous pro.
It’s been a long and painful road but the Browns are finally contenders. Through drafts, free agency, and trades, Cleveland has put together a near-complete team. That window isn’t going to stay open for long though. Throwing Paye opposite Myles Garrett is going to be massively annoying for opposing offensive lines. Combined with their elite secondary talent, Cleveland looks ready to unleash one of the top defenses in the NFL this season.
Judon is gone. Yannick is gone. The Ravens, whose bread and butter is pressuring the quarterback, are going to have to replace that talent, as Tyus Bowser isn’t enough to carry that weight alone. Azeez Ojulari is an interesting prospect who could end up being the best edge in the draft if he goes to the right place. Good news! Baltimore is the right place. What he lacks in size he makes up for in football IQ and play speed. His agility leaves some to be desired but the situations in which this hindered him in college are less likely to appear on a Ravens defense that schemes a very friendly game for players like Ojulari.
There are a ton of directions New Orleans can go here as Sean Payton tries to limit his first rebuild with the Saints to one off-season. Newsome at this point feels like a steal and fills a huge hole in their secondary. Newsome is extremely physical, sometimes to a fault, but most of the time to great success. He was one of the best cornerbacks in all of college football last season and is closer to the top tier of corners in this class than the second tier. His length, ability to shadow receivers, and great skills in press coverage make him an excellent complement to Marshon Lattimore. With some added discipline and refining of technique, Newsome could be the steal of the first round.
Once considered by many to be the top corner in the draft, Farley’s fallen a bit out of favor due to injury concerns. I certainly wouldn’t risk it over Horn or Surtain but at this point in the draft, it’s time to stop the fall. Green Bay is sitting at 29 instead of 31 or 32 because they have an elite corner on one side of the field and an absolute liability on the other. Yeah, they should probably draft more weapons for Aaron Rodgers, like we say every year, but a receiver isn’t going to make up for the abomination that was Kevin King’s post-season performance. Trust that Rodgers can continue to get it done with lesser receivers and opt for not trotting out lesser corners instead.
While you may question replacing a receiver who had 7 TDs as a rookie, Gabriel Davis’s production was still very boom or bust. He’s the kind of player you’d love to have but hate to lean on. Marshall’s testing was extremely favorable and enough to solidify his status as a first-round pick. While he’s not Chase or Justin Jefferson, Marshall shouldn’t be overlooked. His time at LSU was extremely efficient and productive, though his play discipline is going to need to improve in the pros. His measurables are more than enough to make up for that though. His huge catch radius, balance, and burst are all elite for a prospect.
It’s no secret: the Chiefs love speed. Andy Reid’s team under Patrick Mahomes has been electrifying. Even when Mahomes is on the sideline, Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu are two of the most explosive and downright fun to watch players at their position. What’s missing? A linebacker that can bring that level of excitement and swagger to the defense. Jamin Davis has been a fast riser this off-season after seemingly everyone overlooked him. His testing confirmed the hype and he has firmly planted himself within the first-round conversation. The Chiefs don’t just need a good player at linebacker, they need a star that fits their fast, dynamic culture. Davis checks all the boxes for them.
On ability alone, Jaelan Phillips is a fringe-top ten player. But you can’t look at just ability. This isn’t just a player with injury concerns, this is a player who is likely to be one injury away from retirement. That is a major risk to take in the first round. The only reason I have him as a first-rounder right now is because Tampa Bay managed to win the Super Bowl and re-sign everyone. Without any major holes and with Tom Brady getting younger through science or magic, the Bucs can afford to take a risk on a player like Phillips. If it works out, they have Jaelan Phillips rushing opposite Shaq Barrett and they’re happy. If it doesn’t, they’re still contenders and they’re happy.
