Aztecs travel to Boise to avenge last season’s two ugly losses

Fans, to a certain extent, have been upset with some losses perceived by some to be ugly here in the 2015–2016 season. The Aztecs suffered home losses to Arkansas Little Rock and Grand Canyon University. Losing at home to a small name school from a non-major conference isn’t great. Showing an inability to score against those kind of schools also doesn’t strike fear in the NCAA selection committee. However, it turns out that those two teams are decent, but capable of being wildly inconsistent — meaning Aztecs fans have the right to view those losses as unacceptable.

In my opinion, the only loss that truly stings and will hurt just as bad in March as it did in December at Petco Park, was the one handed to the Aztecs by crosstown little brother University of San Diego. Fans should be able to live with their team stumbling a time or two in non-conference play. It happens. But, fans want top tier programs to perform well in conference play — beat the teams you’re supposed to beat and play your quality opponents tough.

The Aztecs didn’t play Boise State, the program challenging their status as Mountain West Conference elite lately, very tough at all last season. The Aztecs played ugly twice and were handed double digit losses at home and on the road. The Aztecs will certainly be motivated going into Saturday night’s prime time match up on ESPN2, which may even draw more viewers than usual in the second half after the NFL’s divisional round playoff game between the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers wraps up.

If and when those viewers click over, let’s hope they’re seeing the Aztecs with a lead or within striking distance rather than playing from behind against a team stocked with lights out shooters playing at home. The Aztecs were all but doomed 8 minutes into their first contest against the Broncos last year at Taco Bell Arena. This 60 second sequence said it all: Nick Duncan 3, Aztecs turnover, Nick Duncan transition 3, Aztecs turnover, Nick Duncan transition 3. Aztecs timeout. 17–4, Broncos.

At Viejas Arena, the Aztecs actually took a lead into halftime, then wilted in the second half. The Broncos went on a 24–7 run to end the game, at the start of which the Aztecs led by 7. Fans of the Aztecs endured two different four minute scoreless stretches. If any 11 minutes encompassed the program’s scoring struggles, that was it.

The Aztecs need to match the unique strengths of the Broncos. Their 5 man is a big guy, but he does his damage from beyond the arc. If Skylar Spencer and Angelo Chol are in the game, they need to retreat to the 3 point line rather than the paint in order to pick up Nick Duncan to take away transition threes. They’ll also be pulled away from the basket during halfcourt sets as Duncan either picks and pops behind the line or runs around screens to free himself for a look.

The Broncos’ most versatile weapon is James Webb III, a 6’10” NBA-ready athlete that is deadly from three as well. His skill set looks like it has been unlocked by a cheat code — he is a near perfect combination of size, speed, athleticism, shot blocking, and outside shooting that shouldn’t arrive so suddenly after being a zero star high school prospect.

Anthony Drmic, a likely candidate for conference player of the year along with Webb, missed all of last season with an injury. Drmic will be the most dangerous scorer on the floor on Saturday night. Drmic has NBA range and a devastatingly quick release on his jump shot. He doesn’t need any time to get off a look. The Aztecs will need to switch screens and have a set of eyes on him at all times.

This year’s Aztec team is deeper with offensive weapons than that of last year. They are far less likely to hit a four minute scoreless stretch, but they still haven’t shown ability to consistently put 65–70 points on the board. The Aztecs worked through Jeremy Hemsley and Trey Kell at Colorado State on Wednesday. They’ll need to balance things out by feeding the ball inside to Winston Shepard, Trey Kell, or Malik Pope.

The Broncos won’t be intimidated one bit by the Aztecs thanks to their head-to-head success last season. Colorado State, on paper, has been a formidable offense as well, but the Broncos are led by three guys that are much more confident in big games in Drmic, Duncan, and Webb. Senior guards Mikey Thompson and Lonnie Jackson (transfer from Boston College) are also key, dependable contributors to this veteran Broncos squad.

I hope the Aztecs try a small lineup, meaning Chol and Spencer will be on the bench much more than usual. That would allow Malik Pope and Dakarai Allen to soak up more minutes. Allen’s perimeter defense, especially on Drmic, will be needed and the team will take any scoring burst it can get from Pope.

Most betting men or women should be favoring the Broncos. They thoroughly outplayed the Aztecs twice last season and the Aztecs are still finding their way offensively. The Aztecs will need efficient shooting from Trey Kell. If the Broncos turn to the 1–2–2 zone that brought the Aztecs offense to a screeching halt last season, Kell, Hemsley, and Pope must hit some outside shots to take them out of it.

Catch the game on ESPN2 at 7:00 PM PST and stay tuned for a recap of this Mountain West heavyweight matchup.

*Originally posted January 16, 2016.