First glance scouting report: Colorado State Rams

Colorado State will enter Wednesday’s match with conference favorite San Diego State with a 2–1 conference record. The Rams fell just short at Boise State January 2 and have since beaten UNLV and San Jose State (in overtime) each by one point. The Rams return 6 rotation players from last season’s 27 win squad, but have lost their leading scorer, Gian Clavell for the season due to a hand injury.

The Rams, even after losing a 20 per game scorer, are capable of putting points on the board. They struggle to defend, however, and do not create many turnovers. Colorado State opened its season with a road victory over Northern Iowa — a team you’ve probably seen on SportsCenter because of their wins over (at the time) #1 North Carolina and #5 Iowa State. They also took down Oakland at home, a team that hung around in contests with Michigan State and Virginia thanks to their scoring machine Kahlil Felder.

San Diego State appears to have moved past its terrible loss to San Diego with three straight Mountain West Conference victories, but they face a Wednesday road test and will end the week with a trip to Boise State. Winston Shepard has stepped up and been enabled to lead the team’s offense from the low block and Jeremy Hemsley has continued to shoot the ball consistently from the outside (22–50, 44%, in 16 games).

Aztecs fans are waiting on a breakout performance from slumping sophomore/projected NBA lottery choice Malik Pope — something he delivered in Fort Collins, Colorado last season. Pope scored 22 points on 9–11 shooting and pulled down 7 rebounds in 28 minutes off the bench. Steve Fisher and his staff would appreciate a duplicated effort from Pope, but not the team. The Rams won that contest by 6. The Aztecs won the other two meetings with Colorado State last season, including a meeting in the conference tournament, but that loss is probably most treasured by fans because of Pope’s explosion.

Here are some keys to Wednesday’s game worth keeping an eye on as you watch:

Tiel Daniels and Emmanuel Omogbo crashing the offensive glass

The starting bigs for the Rams have grabbed 17 offensive rebounds in 3 conference games. The Aztecs have verified Mark Zeigler’s preseason concern of their commitment to the defensive glass. Something has got to give: The Colorado State bigs aren’t threats to score from the outside, so the Aztecs can play big or small lineups as they please. Skylar Spencer has recommitted himself to the defensive glass and Zylan Cheatham is strong enough to box out most college big men. The Aztecs allowed a combined 11 offensive boards to Wyoming and Utah State, but then allowed San Jose State to match that total last Wednesday in one game.

Shot selection for Trey Kell and Winston Shepard

Concern for Winston Shepard’s shot selection doesn’t surprise anybody. He has been in a great groove for 3 games, so it would be disappointing for him to fall away from that. Trey Kell, on the other hand, still passes up decent looks for darn near impossible ones. Kell, being a below the rim finisher, often dribbles and spins into the lane only to toss up the most difficult of floaters over a help defender without creating any contact. Personally, I’d like to see Kell just let it fly off the catch more from deep if he has enough space. Kell is shooting nearly 38% from there as a sophomore, up from the 22% mark of last season.

Rotating and recovering to shooters out of a post double

The Aztecs have been known by Mountain West opponents to double team players in the post. They did it to Joel Embiid in their victory over Kansas two seasons ago. But this team’s set of young players has struggled to rotate and recover after that initial double team this season. Tiel Daniels is a pump faking fiend that is always creating leverage when he makes a move to score from the block.

The Aztecs would find themselves in deep trouble if Skylar Spencer picks up two or three early fouls. Spencer is a top notch collegiate rim protector and help defender near the basket, but 1 on 1 post defense is much more fragile. I believe the Aztecs would be better off doubling Daniels in the post from the start, especially if they keep Dakarai Allen and Winston Shepard on the floor together, two very smart and confident defensive players.

I mentioned shooters because Colorado State’s guards can shoot it — they are 38% as a team from deep. Antwan Scott, Joe De Ciman, and John Gillon will all shoot open threes without hesitation. Fred Richardson and Prentiss Nixon have also hit multiple threes off the bench for the Rams several times this season.

Finding a balance: Run shooters off the three point line while containing dribble penetration

Colorado State’s starting back court of Gillon, De Ciman, and Scott is a well-rounded group. That trio is not afraid to attack the basket when defenders close out hard to them. Containing the dribble of Antwan Scott in particular may be the key to the game for the Aztecs. I expect Dakarai Allen to spend most of his time on Scott or Joe De Ciman, a guard 3 inches taller than Scott capable of attacking a defense in the same ways.

Working harder to run something resembling an organized offense

I feel much more comfortable being critical of the team’s offense after Steve Fisher said in a post game presser that his team finally did things like a Division I offense ought to. The Aztecs for years could be counted on to fall into lulls of half-hearted cuts and screen setting with no particular end goal in mind. That is incredibly frustrating to watch. I focused on the team’s go-to zone offense options in last week’s piece, which can be found here.

If Colorado State sticks to man to man, the Aztecs need to fix their efforts exclusively on post touches for Winston Shepard, Zylan Cheatham (a guy who hasn’t gotten many of them lately), and Malik Pope or balance the floor well enough to give Jeremy Hemsley a legitimate shot at creating a shot from the pick and roll. The Aztecs have allowed Hemsley to run the pick and roll a few times, but often a screen gets set while a teammate is still in his way just enough to spoil the action before it can begin. The Aztecs are waiting to unleash that option as if they’re afraid of something. I don’t know what they are waiting for Hemsley to further prove at this point.

Final thoughts: Cheatham and Spencer must stay out of foul trouble; Antwan Scott needs to get to the free throw line

The starting bigs for the Aztecs have found themselves in foul trouble before this season. Cheatham is still working through a learning curve and Spencer has run into some bad luck/downright bogus calls on multiple occasions. If Antwan Scott can slice through this critically acclaimed defense, he’ll control this game played between two teams that play at a very average pace in his home arena.

Who do you expect to come out on top? Let me know your thoughts on the game and these points in the comments or on Twitter, @toughtwos.

*Originally posted January 12, 2016.