The Remarkable Similarity of Covid-19 Infection Waves throughout the World
I have been modeling covid-19 cases and deaths in all areas of the world for the past six months. I built the coronavirus forecasting dashboard which makes predictions for covid cases/deaths for all countries and US states. In this post, I will explore the remarkable similarity of covid infection waves across many areas of the world.
Similarity of Covid Waves by Area
Understanding the shape and trajectory of covid waves can provide useful approximations for the time frame where many infections will occur. When I speak of “covid waves”, I refer to the rise and fall of cases (confirmed infections) in a particular area of the world.
One remarkable observation thus far, is that nearly all areas have covid waves that follow similar trajectories and last a similar amount of time. The most widely available data to track covid waves is the number of daily cases reported. While the severity of individual cases varies, the daily number provides a good indication of the overall covid activity in an area. To help improve the discussion, I have defined the following covid wave stages and approximate length each area spends within them.
- Trough— same low number of daily cases
- Start— slow increase in daily cases…
