AI predictions for 2024: Next Leap Forward
Ilia Badeev, Head of Data Science, Trevolution Group
All of us reading this have been lucky to witness the genesis, growth, and the impact of Artificial intelligence (AI) first-hand. It seems that every tech break-through nowadays relates to AI in one way or another, and the trend is bound to continue. As we look back at 2023 when AI entered the tech stage so spectacularly, we can also try and guess the way AI is going to develop in the year to come. Both — to make better business decisions and to be better prepared as individuals. Since all of us are part of the wave that is AI, we can use it to our advantage to take the next leap forward and make sure we come out on top.
But first — some numbers
In the professional community, the hype around AI has been ongoing since 2016. However, it was in 2023 that AI truly became mainstream and an integral part of daily life, largely thanks to ChatGPT. The core technology behind ChatGPT has been around since 2017 (developed by Google Brains), but it was OpenAI that first transformed this technology into a widespread product.
Thus, we are merely at the commencement of this journey. We are currently boarding the ride and fastening our seatbelts; the real adventure lies ahead.
AI is advancing on the tracks laid by pre-existing technologies (internet, smartphones). Without these, the adaptation of the technology would have proceeded at a considerably slower pace. It is projected that by 2025, technology adoption will reach a level of 50% — metaphorically speaking, every second person will have AI ‘in their pocket’, utilized on a daily basis.
According to the majority of forecasts, the next 3–5 years will be dominated by the era of AI. We can expect groundbreaking innovations; 2023 was merely the inception. The most transformative developments are predicted for the years 2024–2026. Again — this is only the beginning.
So — what will change in 2024?
You will find yourself interacting with AI more and more frequently. Search engines (like Google and Bing) are increasingly being supplemented by (or even replaced with) AI-generated responses. Generally, in every service (website, application), the ‘search’ feature will evolve into an interactive dialogue with AI.
Most of the tools we are accustomed to (such as Word, Photoshop, etc.) will adapt their interfaces to increasingly incorporate AI interactions. For instance, in Photoshop, there’s already a version where traditional buttons are replaced with a prompt field.
The prevalence of personal assistants, akin to Siri and Google Assistant but significantly enhanced, is imminent and likely by 2024.
Customer support (at least at the first level) will transition entirely to AI, both in chat and over the phone. The same will apply to fields like medicine, law, and home repairs. The primary consultation will be AI-assisted, with human involvement only in the subsequent stages. For example, when visiting a hospital website, a virtual assistant first asks you to describe symptoms, upload tests, might even offer basic advice on which medications to take for symptom relief, and helps in scheduling an appointment with the appropriate doctor.
In business, an increasing number of processes (accounting, design, basic software development) will involve AI, either in a collaborative role or being handled solely by AI.
How will it affect jobs and businesses?
AI will gradually and relentlessly replace humans in various tasks. It won’t completely displace humans from work, but it will significantly reduce the number of people needed in an organization by taking over a majority of routine operations.
At present, it seems that AI won’t create many new professions. The role of ‘Prompt Engineer’ has become popular recently, but this is a temporary phenomenon born from the imperfections of current AI. Over time, the skill of prompt engineering will become as fundamental as computer or smartphone literacy.
Regarding businesses, the big tech companies have responded to AI with remarkable speed. Considering that the planning cycle in such companies spans 2–4 years (what Facebook is doing in 2023 was planned in 2019–2021), the pace at which they are releasing new AI-based products is astonishing.
Meanwhile, a colossal number of smaller startups have emerged in the wake of ChatGPT’s appearance and the heightened interest in AI. Regrettably, they perish just as quickly, as ‘big players’ regularly enhance their AI with new features that supplant the products of these startups. For instance, there were numerous startups facilitating the integration of ChatGPT with personal knowledge bases, but OpenAI recently made this feature available within ChatGPT itself, eliminating the need for external products.
Indeed, every tech company is now creating its own AI suite, often replicating the functionality of others. In most cases, these AIs are not separate products but extensions to the ecosystem. For example, AI from X.com actively utilizes their own data ocean (tweets), while Microsoft plans to integrate AI into its Office products. The same goes for Google’s Gemini (Bard) and others.
What about AI’s impact on the creative industries?
Many believe that AI will completely replace humans in the creative sphere, but in reality, AI will simply become another tool, akin to Photoshop, GarageBand, or Adobe Premiere. AI will make people more efficient and further democratize the creative field.
In the past, to record a track, one needed to find musicians, rent instruments, and go to a studio. Now, it’s possible to do all that without leaving one’s computer chair. Tomorrow, one could record a track with just 4–6 sentences input into an AI (indeed, AI for music generation is already available, albeit not yet widely popular).
A pivotal aspect of 2024’s generative AI landscape will be the “infinite loop” of content creation. AI will not only create new materials but also use these creations as training data, forming a self-sustaining cycle akin to a vinyl record on repeat. This phenomenon could lead to AI-generated content saturating the market, reminiscent of how factory-produced goods overshadowed artisanal crafts. Meanwhile this will present a new opportunity to shine for those who truly think outside of the box, as their creativity will be able to shine against the AI’s backdrop.
RemAIning vigilant — AI’s problems in 2024
We will increasingly face problems related to data breaches and the hacking of personal data through AI. AI will be much more actively used in cybercrimes. It will be employed for hacking websites and for social engineering (instead of fraudsters, AI will call/write to you). You may soon receive a call from an unknown number with your mother’s voice asking for money as she might have recently contacted technical support, and her voiceprint could have been stolen and used by fraudsters.
Another looming challenge is the impending data scarcity. As we march into 2024, “Data is the new oil” shifts from a slogan to reality. Platforms such as X and Reddit, capitalizing on their data reservoirs, hint at the future scarcity and commodification of high-quality data. Despite the daily influx of media, high-quality, original content remains scarce. We’re approaching a “data famine,” with premium text data possibly being exhausted by 2026 and high-quality image and video data by the 2040s.
And lastly — computational power. The development of AI is directly proportional to advancements in computational power. The availability of GPUs is not infinite, and expanding their production is not a matter of mere months (or even years).
Homework for AI in 2024
A major ethical conundrum we must consider is that AI will become increasingly indistinguishable from humans. Texts written by AI are already indiscernible. Images are close behind. Videos will follow in the near future. One of the ethical challenges is that people may not be able to discern where AI ends and human input begins.
On the other hand we have AI regulation that has been a major news topic and 2023 and will surely continue the trend in 2024. Unfortunately, fear of AI may lead to overly stringent regulation in the field, significantly slowing the growth and development of AI. There’s a Russian saying, ‘When trees are chopped, chips fly.’ Decisions will need to be made whether the benefits of AI development outweigh the harm caused by it in the first place.
So — should you be worried?
We stand at the precipice of the next leap forward in all aspects of our life. In this new wave, data will the new currency, and AI will be the mechanism of its circulation. We will witness AI enterprises ascend to the stature of industry juggernauts. On the other hand, this ascent will inevitably bring forth a tide of regulations aimed at navigating the intricacies of data and AI.
For most of us, the best strategy in this new epoch is to stay informed and contribute to shaping the field’s trajectory by advocating for rationality, empathy, and clarity in this unfolding domain. One should approach the discourse surrounding AI with a level head. Similar to the initial frenzies over the internet and blockchain, AI’s current limelight is part of an evolving pattern.
As the novelty will wane, AI’s true nature as a very, very powerful tool — not a magical solution — will become apparent. And its integration into our daily lives promises to be a steady march, providing the public with time to understand and adapt to these technological advances.
However, if you want to come out on top of this wave, the recipe for success is still the same — find a problem that no one else is solving or provide a better way to solve it using new approaches or tools. And — be the first to deliver it! This has proven to be true time and time again, with or without AI. Whether you come up with the best possible product or solution with integrated AI or find a human-centric niche that will be become increasingly lucrative in the age of AI. As long as you truly think outside of the box and can bring something new to the table, success awaits — in 2024 and beyond!
Ilia Badeev is a data science expert, currently leading as Head of Data Science at Trevolution Group. His prior experience includes the role of Principal Data Scientist, developing innovative machine learning solutions like an automatic document verification system.
During Badeev’s tenure at Peregrine Technologies in Berlin, he implemented a range of projects from neural networks for traffic sign detection to sophisticated data analytics web services. His technical acumen spans across Python, TensorFlow, AWS, and Kubernetes, demonstrating his proficiency in handling complex data-driven challenges.
Earlier, at factorymarket in Berlin, he made notable contributions by developing ML models for retail analytics and transaction analysis, handling massive data sets. Badeev’s career is marked by his expertise in machine learning and data analytics, applied across diverse industries and challenging environments.
