Russia’s Balancing Strategy in South Asia
On August 13, 2017, a senior Russian military official announced that Moscow would host comprehensive joint military drills with India from October 19 to 29. This announcement gained widespread international attention, as Moscow’s October drills will coordinate with India’s army, navy and air force in a synchronized fashion for the first time. The timing of Moscow’s decision to expand its military cooperation with India is also intriguing, as the drill announcement occurred just days after Pakistan held negotiations with Russia on the purchase of S-35 war planes.
Russia’s decision to deepen its military cooperation with India and Pakistan simultaneously is a compelling example of Moscow’s balancing strategy in South Asia. Russia’s ability to maintain cordial security partnerships with both India and Pakistan is highly beneficial for its broader geopolitical aspirations.
Moscow’s successful balancing strategy in South Asia highlights Russia’s great power status to the international community, as it demonstrates that Russia can directly compete with the United States and China for influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia’s South Asian balancing strategy also ensures that both New Delhi and Islamabad support Moscow’s efforts to prevent instability in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Moscow’s partnerships with India and Pakistan have been sustained by its efforts to address two key security challenges of mutual concern. The first major security issue that Russia has emphasized in its attempts to cement partnerships with India and Pakistan is that of combatting transnational terrorism.
Even though Indian politicians have routinely highlighted Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism as a major threat to regional stability and Pakistani media outlets have blamed rising Islamic extremism on India’s marginalization of Muslims, Russia has retained favorable relations with both countries by refusing to blame either country for the ongoing threat of terrorism in South Asia.
Instead of emulating the Trump administration’s accusatory approach, Russia has addressed the terrorism threat in South Asia by bilaterally engaging with the Indian and Pakistani governments on areas where they can implement constructive solutions. Russia’s counter-terrorism outreach to India has focused on the enforcement of stricter cross-border controls on the inflows and outflows of Islamic extremists. To convince the Indian government of Moscow’s commitment to cracking down on facilitators of terrorism, Russian President Vladimir Putin supported India’s counter-terrorism raid in Kashmir after the 2016 Uri attacks and openly praised New Delhi’s counter-terrorism policies during his meeting with Modi in June.
Even though Russia’s support for India’s counter-terrorism policies risks damaging its bilateral relationship with Pakistan, Moscow has eased concerns in Islamabad by highlighting Pakistan’s indispensability as a counter-terrorism partner in Afghanistan. Russian officials have argued that the Trump administration’s hostile rhetoric towards Pakistan risks destabilizing the region, and Moscow has given Pakistan a prominent diplomatic profile in the peace talks it has hosted on the Afghanistan crisis. These actions have reassured Pakistani officials of Russia’s impartiality in South Asia, and have caused Islamabad to support an expansion of Russia’s diplomatic presence in Afghanistan.
