Why Sushi and Poke Might Not Survive COVID-19
Like most other restaurants sushi and poke restaurants are struggling with all the closures and new health and safety guidelines. But these restaurants had additional struggles.
Food Safety
Early on in the pandemic, reliable safety information was hard to come by and food safety was one of the biggest question marks for consumers. Both sushi and poke are most commonly served raw which is at the best of times subject to strict food safety scrutiny. No matter how high the quality is there will always be some risk that raw fish can contain bacteria or parasites. Cooked fish does not have the same problem as high heat will kill anything problematic.
Delivery and take-out have become the safest and most common way to eat out during the pandemic but that also means a much longer period of time between prepping and actually eating the fish. The greatest danger is likely not COVID-19 contamination but an increased time in what food industry professionals call the “danger zone.”
According to the USDA, raw fish should be kept below 40°F to prevent bacteria that cause foodborne illnesses from growing quickly. Most experts agree that raw fish should not be consumed after 2–4 hours at room temperature otherwise it may pose a serious risk to health.
With delivery that may take up to an hour or more to reach the hungry customer, there is a very small window to enjoy sushi or poke before it becomes unsafe.
COVID-19 Food Safety
The good news is that the CDC and WHO have ruled out food as a major contributor to COVID-19 cases.
The CDC website states, “The risk of getting COVID-19 from food you cook yourself or from handling and consuming food from restaurants and takeout or drive-thru meals is thought to be very low. Currently, there is no evidence that food is associated with spreading the virus that causes COVID-19.”
Additionally, “The virus that causes COVID-19 cannot grow on food. Although bacteria can grow on food, a virus requires a living host like a person or an animal to multiply.”
Industry experts are concerned that even after the pandemic ends many diners may continue to be concerned over the food safety of high-risk foods like raw fish.
The economic slowdown has already hurt many restaurants and forced more than 5% of all restaurants in the US to permanently close.
Struggling restaurants are unsure whether they can survive in the long run once government aid runs out, this concern is especially felt for restaurants that rely on raw fish as they may not have the support of the communities either.
Supply
But the biggest reason why sushi and poke restaurants may not survive the pandemic comes down to supply and demand.
Similar to the meat industry, COVID-19 has upended the fishing industry. The demand for seafood has plummeted during the pandemic. The average US consumer spends twice as much on seafood in a restaurant than they do at home. So even if home consumption of seafood has gone up, it cannot make up for the lost revenue from restaurants.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2017, US consumers spent roughly $102.2 billion in seafood, $70 billion of which was on seafood in restaurants.
The pandemic has severely crippled restaurants that earn the greatest profits for the seafood industry.
But even if demand were higher, seafood would face the same bottleneck as the rest of the food industry, distribution. The US has a notoriously complex distribution network with few redundancies. The pandemic which placed truck drivers especially at risk has crippled large portions of distribution leading to shortages of even common goods all over the US. Seafood which must be transported in refrigerated trucks and on tight time tables to maintain freshness suffered massive losses.
Additionally, specialty seafood is expensive, going against current consumer trends reducing demand even further.
Many fish processing plants are concerned that the glut of supply will tank prices once demand normalizes again. Fisheries in the US report losses up to 95% of their usual revenue and it is estimated that 35% will be forced to permanently close in the next few months if business doesn’t pick up soon.
Kenny Melanson who owns Northern Wind a seafood processing plant in New Bedford, Mass. Is also concerned for the fishermen the industry relies on.
“We could obviously tell our suppliers we would prefer if you don’t fish for the next 30 days,” Melanson said. “But I’m very concerned and nervous about the 28- and 29-year employees and the crews we’ve built up to produce these quantities. They all live paycheck to paycheck.”
Gavin Gibbons, vice president of communications for the National Fisheries Institute, says that sales of seafood for restaurants are down more than 90 percent and that affects the entire industry down to the fishermen who catch fish.
“The men and women working at sea and those farming fish start this complex system, and helping them is important,” Gibbons said. “It is essential that the entire value chain be helped. It does no good to catch fish if it just sits on the dock.”
Fishermen are in great danger as well. Imagine, dozens of men on a small boat for long periods of time where it is impractical to wear PPE to do their jobs. Dozens of ships around the world have already reported significant outbreaks aboard their ships and were forced to stop fishing for fear of contaminating any fish that would be caught.
American Seafoods, is the world’s largest frozen-at-sea of Wild Alaskan Pollock. The company reported 92 positive COVID-19 cases, almost 3/4ths of one ship. Soon after, another incident where 96 tested positive on a different ship and a third incident where 25 tested positive on yet another ship were reported despite health precautions.
Eric Kingma, executive director of the Hawaii Longline Association explains that fishing trips for some boats cost $45,000 each “before you leave the dock, just to break even.”
“Our daily value dropped by 80 percent, and trip costs exceeded the landed value,” he said. “We’ve tried to shift demand into local retail consumers.”
“It’s a complete disaster,” Kingma said, “a disaster that many vessels will not recover from.”
Relief
Robert Vanasse, executive director of Saving Seafood, says the CARES Act passed in March 2020 to infuse funds into struggling industries simply isn’t enough aid for the seafood industry.
“While $300 million is a large amount of money, when you consider the number of commercial fishermen and employees in fishery-related businesses, it will not go far enough,” Vanasse said. “And it does not compare to the $9.5 billion allocated for livestock, specialty crops and other parts of the food system.”
Vanasse emphasizes that if the industry doesn’t receive more aid, the resulting recession will likely result in thousands of commercial fishers, many of them from generational fishers, permanently shuttering their business resulting in a huge disruption in the supply of seafood.
Future
All these factors may contribute to sushi and poke restaurants closing down at higher rates compared to other restaurants.
Sushi restaurants and chains in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore all suffered severe drops in revenue. A popular Japanese sushi chain, SGH, recently opened a new izakaya chain. At its worst point, their revenue was down 90%.
Other nations that were able to get COVID-19 under control faster avoided worst-case scenarios but still averaged less than 60% of their normal revenue.
In an attempt to attract health-minded diners, sushi restaurants in Japan began relying on technology for their service. Touch screens and mobile payments are gaining popularity in conveyor belt sushi establishments as one way to cut down on human contact and avoid the virus. Some restaurants have begun deploying tableside codes that diners can scan on their phones to order and pay for meals.
Sushi and raw fish are staples in Asian diets so while the industry is struggling there is no doubt they will make a comeback. US consumers may not feel as strongly about raw fish in the future. Sushi and poke are generally considered a luxury or a trend rather than a staple in American diets. Restaurants will have to adapt to attract customers back and convince them that not only is the food safe to eat but that the environment is too.
