Perceptions Or Trendlines

In the end, destiny will not be denied by perceptions

Perceptions are how we traverse life. Yes, I’m stating the obvious, but it’s instructive to consider what this means rather than just taking it for granted. We perceive reality in its many forms and versions from a combination of experience, observation (reading, watching, listening) and learning. If we choose reliable sources for information, we can be confident we know and understand much of what is happening in the world — our community, our country, our planet. But do we?

A lot of what we believe we know and understand can make us cynical and even fearful. And yet, all the bits and pieces we accumulate may not be representative and thus would not reflect the greater realities. We estimate risk by asking questions and searching anecdotes, seeking that which is most reliable and accurate. This can distort our perceptions — what is actually dangerous seems more benign, what seems truly dangerous may be far less so. What we need is a different kind of information so we can perceive reality more accurately.

News easily feeds all the worst aspects because even though it may be accurate, it’s not proportional. What we really need is to count…to acquire data. What we may learn is that things are far better than they used to be for more humans than ever despite our perceptions. These are known as trendlines. There are endless examples. The average lifespan has more than doubled statistically. Abject poverty has gone from 90 percent to 10. Literacy has risen from 10 percent to more than 80. Individuals living in democracies has risen from single digit percentages to almost 70 percent. Wars and casualties are ten times less now while human and civil rights have increased significantly for billions of people.

These larger realities are not typically noted in news, so the perceptions regarding all that is wrong have no context. Trendlines, of course, vary in how we are doing in terms of human progress. But overall they demonstrate that change continues. For example, increases in those who live in metropolitan regions and are educated, secular, ethically diverse and younger alter the political balance. Globalization increases despite isolationism and militant nationalism. Conflict does not disappear, but the inertia is with progress rather than regression.

One needs to be discerning about the noise. For example, take the rhetoric of authoritarian populism as more outlier than policy. Issues facing individual nations are increasingly mitigated by international solutions. Headlines draw attention, but trendlines more accurately describe the norms more often. This doesn’t mean complacency is a good thing because there are issues that are actually more threatening to the norms than those with specific agendas are willing to admit.

Climate change and environmental issues are where perceptions and trendlines can have inverse relationships. An article in the philosophy section of the NY Times not long ago posed a headline question as to whether the extinction of humans would be a tragedy. The responses of readers seemed to indicate that a substantial number were not seeing it as a tragedy. Of course, they would not be around for it, but the rationale was that humans can unwittingly and sometimes purposely create problems they then may not or will not take responsibility for.

This can result in denial of trendlines and the fabrication of perceptions that deny there’s a real problem. Wishful thinking is one of those absurd aspects of some individuals that leaves pragmatists dumbfounded…not a common experience for us. When trendlines becoming increasingly dire and perceptions seek to rationalize them away, those who reasonably fear the trends are faced with overcoming the objections of those who insist perceptions need revision so considerable effort and cost — also known as change — are not necessary.

For example, much of the progress that humans have made will be lost if our planet becomes a threat to us as a result of a failure of will to accept the reality of climate change. The odds of this loss happening are far greater than the likelihood of a large meteor achieving the same result by slamming into the earth. Our perceptions can accept trendlines or deny their reality. Denial may be more comforting, but denial doesn’t alter the trendlines of reality. In the end, destiny will not be denied by perceptions.