What does 2021 have in store for America?
The Economist predicts a nine in ten chance of Biden winning the electoral college, but what are the key issues impacting the election and the year ahead?
In the approach to the US presidential election, we invited two leading correspondents from The Economist’s editorial team to explain their predictions for the election and beyond. Bob Cohn, The Economist’s President, hosted Charlotte Howard, our New York Bureau Chief and host of ‘Checks and Balance’ — our weekly podcast on American politics — and Tom Standage, Deputy Editor of The Economist and Editorial Director of “The World Ahead”.
Together, they tackled the question; ‘what does 2021 have in store for America?’ Bob asked Charlotte what three factors she thinks will have the most impact on this year’s election. She responded with the following three areas:
- Covid-19
- Ongoing anti-racism protests
- Electoral fairness and logistics
As American reputation overseas continues to crumble, Charlotte and Tom addressed the most pressing issues each candidate must consider in the election and in their potential presidency. Read on for a deep-dive into their predictions and expert analysis.
“This isn’t about a conservative America or a liberal America, this is about America period.”
- Charlotte Howard
Racial equality
The webinar began with Bob asking Charlotte and Tom what they think are the biggest policy issues and events impacting the election. Both Charlotte and Tom agreed that the influence of ongoing violence perpetrated towards black people and the ensuing protests cannot be overstated. Tom noted that protests in the US have catalysed ‘global debate about why it is taking so long to address these problems’.
Across the world and in the US, many people are paying attention to Trump’s response and question if Biden could effectively address racial injustice. To counter this, Trump is attempting to fashion a ‘law and order’ election to gain favour amongst voters who are eager to see civil order restored. Charlotte highlighted that only 25% of Trump voters state that racial equality influences their choice at the ballot, whereas 75% state that public order is a high priority.
She continued by explaining that these numbers are almost reversed for Democratic voters looking for a progressive resolution to racial inequality from Biden. Despite platforming Tim Scott (the only black Republican Member of the Senate) at the RNC, the Republicans are not aiming to win over the black electorate, nor would they be successful in doing so. Instead Charlotte stated that the impact of this will be felt in swing states, where white voters may feel morally inculpable for racial injustice under Trump following the platforming of a black Republican.
The Republicans emphasised a ‘doomsday’ scenario at the RNC, should the Democrats win the election, where the American way of life as it is known would cease to exist.
“The blend of nihilism and optimism that we heard from both parties has been remarkable. […] The rhetoric has been more extreme than anything I’ve seen in prior elections.”
- Charlotte Howard
Charlotte emphasised that the Republicans will have a particularly hard time casting Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris, as socialists who are too ‘soft on crime’. Harris faced widespread criticism from the progressive left for being a particularly tough prosecutor and Attorney General in California. The Democrats ‘have very much learnt the lessons of the ‘law and order’ elections of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush in which law and order helped propel conservatives into office’. Both Biden and Harris took these lessons to heart; they recognise the need to restore civil order in some form to appeal to moderates.
Covid-19
Charlotte and Tom stated two central facets of the political impact of covid-19; an exasperated distrust of institutions and the certain politicisation of any vaccine produced. Tom highlighted that during the Ebola outbreak ‘America led the response, [but] that hasn’t happened this time and that has created a vacuum that other powers have been very happy to move into’. Charlotte responded that Trump’s failure to handle the pandemic has only contributed to the growing distrust of political institutions in the United States. Charlotte continued by stating that the Democrats have used this opportunity as evidence that Trump is not only; ‘morally unfit but substantively incompetent’.
At the RNC Mike Pence spoke of a ‘miracle vaccine’. Miracles aside, the politicisation of any successful vaccine is certain, Tom explained. Tom predicts ‘vaccine nationalism’ in the US and beyond but stated that it would be sensible for developed countries to subsidise the high costs of vaccines to aid less developed countries. Whoever is elected will also need to consider how a limited supply of vaccines will be distributed amongst the US population. Charlotte noted that the growing distrust in institutions is fuelled in part by misinformation with an abundance of ‘fake’ or distorted news circulating about the virus and potential vaccines. Tom agreed and responded by stating that irrespective of distribution policy, any vaccine could be ineffective because;
“about 50% of American’s say that they won’t take a covid vaccine because they believe some crazy conspiracy theory they’ve seen that it’s going to implant 5G from Bill Gates in their head.”
- Tom Standage
Vaccines and covid-19 treatments will be high on the political agenda irrespective of the election outcome.
Electoral fairness and interference
The discussion then moved towards electoral fairness and ongoing logistical uncertainty which intersects with both other high impact areas. Charlotte explained that unfair voter ID laws introduced in the run up to the 2016 election had a detrimental impact on voter turnout amongst minority voters. Looking ahead, these laws will continue to impact the voter turnout. Although The Economist currently forecasts a nine in ten chance for Biden, the potential impact of changes to voting by mail practices cannot be dismissed. In response to covid-19 many voters will not be able to vote in person for the first time this year.
Whilst Charlotte addressed barriers to voter turnout in the US, Tom also cited the 2016 election to assert that we should expect surprises in the coming weeks. Looking back at the infamous Access Hollywood tapes and potential Russian interference that caused shockwaves before the previous election, it is difficult to predict what foreign powers and influential media may have up their sleeves.
What we can predict, Tom stated, is negative implications should Trump lose. In August, Trump claimed that the only way the Democrats could win is if the election was ‘rigged’, we have covered more on this in Friday’s briefing. In the likely event that Trump does lose the electoral college, it is unlikely that he will accept this outcome.
For Tom, the major repercussions of this rejection play out on the global stage. China and Russia are likely to remain silent on the issue whilst European players — particularly Britain — must tread extremely carefully. Tom warned that should Britain, a supposed ally of the US, impose sanctions on Trump and America, any potential and wanted trade deal is jeopardised significantly. The consequence of post-election political dissent is excellent news for China, it is ‘accelerating the moment where China overtakes America in their political and economic influence’, said Tom.
Summing up
In addition to assessing the impact of covid-19, racial injustice and electoral fairness, Charlotte and Tom addressed two other inseparable high impact affairs to watch; climate change and big-tech firms.
You can hear more on these topics in the webinar recording or see more of our election coverage here. The Economist and our editors are currently forecasting a win for Biden and the Democrats, but looking ahead, tackling racial injustice and covid-19 will define the beginning of the next term irrespective of who succeeds.
You can also contact us on ClientMarketing@Economist.com with any queries you may have.
