Cacao Extinction? Think Again.
In the United States, there are about 32 national days dedicated to the various forms and flavors of chocolate. Most recently celebrated was National Chocolate Souffle Day on February 28th. Across the globe, there are even more dates to celebrate, including World Chocolate Day on July 7th. Given the international affection that chocolate has garnered, recent reports about the possibility of cacao tree extinction have been at best concerning, at worst a desperate worldwide call to action.
Are we going to see the total eradication of cacao within the next 30 years? According to a Business Insider article, climate change and disease are the biggest current and future threats to cacao production. They suggest that disease has already decreased production up to 40% worldwide. Continued increase in market demand has led to the claim that we’re simply eating too much chocolate. The combination of these factors, it is argued, is the reason why the cost of chocolate has been increasing. Further, concerns about widespread loss of crops has sparked a debate about the use of GMO cacao strains, with a coalition of pro-GMO farmers supporting the creation of drought- and disease-resistant strains.
For cacao farmers in Hawaii, many of these claims come as a surprise and are contradictory to their own experiences in the chocolate industry. Though cacao farming is a relatively new endeavor compared to Hawaii’s traditional sugar cane and pineapple plantations, there is a strong market for “tree to bar” artisan chocolate which has driven interest in production of and research into cacao across the islands.
Chocolatier and soon-to-be cacao farm owner Pete Lockhart is one such Hawaiian resident. He hopes to start a 30 acre cacao farm with an accompanying “roadside cacao and chocolate discovery center” on the Big Island. Lockhart reports an increase in the number of local farmers growing cacao in recent years. Trends emphasizing craft chocolate, which he notes is “similar to the micro-brewery industry, relative to the big beer makers,” has led to an expansion of farmers and small businesses exploring cacao varieties and chocolate recipes.
Lockhart has traveled the globe gaining information about current cacao farming practices and trends. He argues that such articles can be misleading and result in undue panic. Claims that chocolate could become extinct inherently open themselves up to criticism because, first and foremost, chocolate is a product rather than a living being, and as such could never become extinct. Additionally, Lockhart argues that complete extinction of cacao trees is “theoretically possible, but very very unlikely” given the variety of farming locations across the globe, current genetic variation, and continued market value of cacao products.
The primary argument presented in the article is that demand for cacao products is far greater than supply. A significant depletion of crops would support this claim, which ultimately serves to justify increases in the cost of chocolate. However, data collected on worldwide cacao crop yield contradicts this claim. Statista, a database company that collects research metrics from thousands of studies and sources, has collected information on global cacao production since 1980. While it is true that the projected total amount of cacao produced in 2017–18 was less than the prior crop year, the overall trend has been a steady increase in production.
Since 1980 there have been years with less overall production, but as with many aspects of nature, crops can be fickle in their yield. Some years can produce a little more while other years produce a little less. For example, there was a similar decrease in yield from 2010–11 to 2011–12. In fact, the data shows a pattern of dips in production occurring between larger increases. This gradual increase over almost 40 years could be due to increased market pressure for production and subsequent increases in the number of cacao farms. However, if we are to believe that disease alone has caused the death of nearly 40% of all cacao trees, and presumably an additional significant portion has been lost due to climate change, surely there would be a larger deficit than that indicated by the data. And, as the effects of climate change have become increasingly prevalent over the same temporal scale as the data, it is likely that the trend would be decreasing production, not increasing.
Implicit in the article’s argument is the idea that there is little genetic variation or geographical distance between cacao farms, which would result in the highest crop loss due to disease. However, as Lockhart explains, there are 20 genetically distinct cacao populations. While the majority of the strains aren’t “true to seed”, which means a new tree cannot grow directly from a seed, “a cutting [can be spliced] with some cacao root stock” in order to grow a new tree. This means that the genetic diversity of each strain can be preserved. Additionally, significant research and experimentation into hybridizing strains of cacao has been ongoing, with the goal of creating new varieties with unique flavor profiles and distinct genetic makeups.
Further complicating the article’s assertion is how widespread cacao farms are. As stated in the article, Africa does contain some of the largest farms, but it is far from the only location where cacao is grown. Given the increases on market demand for chocolate, new farms have begun to spring up across the globe. In addition to Hawaii, Lockhart notes recent demand for production in Australia, India, and Vietnam. This would seem to undercut the idea that cacao strains are so similar in location and genetic makeup that a disease-climate-change combo punch would obliterate the entire species.
While climate change on the whole is a major threat to biodiversity and the well-being of the planet, it can actually open up new opportunities for farming. According to conservation biologist Dr. Andrew Bouwma, even as climate change results in some current agricultural land becoming too hot and dry for certain crops (such as the cacao farms that were reportedly abandoned in Latin America), colder areas will heat up and provide ideal climates for a variety of agricultural crops. For example, the Midwest, which is considered the hub of traditional U.S. agriculture, has been experiencing severe climate change and irregular temperatures that are concerning for future crop yields. However, as temperatures increase, areas further north (including much of Canada) will become viable for agriculture. The same trend can be seen on other continents, especially in Russia and other northern Asian countries.
Finally, GMOs have been presented as a saving grace for crops at risk of extinction. In this case, however, proponents present genetically modified cacao seeds as a solution when in reality the development of these seeds is still in its infancy. The coalition of farmers supposedly supporting genetically modified cacao is actually only using modified beets for sugar that will be used in their chocolate. This group also argues for the use of GMOs as “a farming technique”. The problem with this argument is that genetically modified organisms are tweaked in the lab, not in the field. A plant can be grown after it has been modified, but it cannot be farmed into a modified state any further than natural or artificial (human-induced) selection will afford. In response to the possibility of using GMOs, Lockhart states they “ may well contribute to the genetic robustness of cacao at some point,” but right now they are presented as a partially-formed solution for a problem that doesn’t really exist.
An imbalance of supply and demand does not equal extinction, just as disease and climate change (eye-catching buzzwords though they may be) do not deserve the blame for the increasing cost of a product in a capitalist market. As Lockhart notes, “ people really like chocolate, so there is, and will continue to be, a lot of market pressure to produce more and more chocolate.” In the greater scheme of mass plant extinctions, the cacao tree is not one we should be concerned about. So go ahead, take an indulgent, guilt-free bite out of that artisan truffle on National Bittersweet Chocolate Day.
