European Union Candidates — Turkiye and Ukraine: A Comparative Analysis
Introduction:
In this analysis, we delve into the economic and demographic profiles of two aspiring European Union (EU) members: Turkiye and Ukraine. For this analysis, we used The World Bank’s World Development Indicators dataset, which spans from 2018 to 2022, providing a snapshot of key indicators such as population, GDP per capita, age dependency ratio, inflation, unemployment rate, and labor force participation rates for both countries.
Please find the detailed analysis in our Progress Journal.
Key Takeaways:
1- Economic Disparities:
- The European Union maintained relatively low inflation (0.48% to 2.55%) but saw a modest decline in GDP per capita.
- Turkiye experienced higher inflation, peaking at 72.31% in 2022, and a fluctuating GDP per capita.
- Ukraine had varying inflation rates, notably increasing in 2022 (20.18%), with GDP per capita showing fluctuations. These trends highlight economic variations and challenges across the regions during the specified period.
2- Population Trends:
- Both Turkiye and Ukraine witness population growth, but Turkiye consistently maintains a higher population.
- The EU, with a stable yet aging population, contrasts with these contenders, raising questions about potential demographic challenges for the EU in the future.
3- Inflation and Unemployment:
- Turkiye faces higher inflation rates compared to Ukraine, reaching peaks in 2018 and 2021.
- While both countries experience fluctuations in unemployment rates, Turkiye’s rates are generally higher, suggesting potential challenges in the labor market.
4- Labor Force Dynamics:
- The European Union consistently leads in both male and female labor force participation rates, while Turkiye sees a notable gender gap with higher male participation. Ukraine shows a more balanced but lower overall participation compared to the EU.
5- Challenges and Opportunities:
- Ukraine faces a significant increase in the age dependency ratio in 2022, signaling potential future challenges in supporting an aging population.
- Turkiye’s sharp increase in inflation in 2022 and a drastic decline in the female labor force participation rate in 2022 may require policy attention.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Turkiye and Ukraine, as EU aspirants, present distinct economic trajectories. While Turkiye grapples with inflation and relatively lower GDP per capita, Ukraine showcases economic resilience. Demographically, both nations contribute unique dynamics, with Turkiye demonstrating a robust male labor force. The EU must consider these nuances as it navigates potential expansions, acknowledging both challenges and opportunities these contenders bring to the union.
Disclaimer:
The analysis is based on available data, and factors such as political events and global economic shifts may influence the presented trends
