Don’t Waste Your Hype On The iPhone 12: Apple’s Groundbreaking Augmented Reality Glasses Are Coming

Apple’s next big product category: Augmented reality glasses

Since the original iPhone launched over 13 years ago, consumers have been anxiously awaiting Apple’s next big product category. Since then, Apple has released products, such as the iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods. While these have all sold well, the rumored debut of Apple’s next venture into augmented reality (AR) has consumers expecting nothing less than a groundbreaking technology. While they haven’t been the first tech company to break into the wearable augmented reality user interface market, insider leaks within the company have hinted toward releasing their own version of AR Smart Glasses in 2023.

Smart Glasses are wearable user interfaces which function as eyewear to replace the need for hands-on navigation of computers, cellphones, and cameras. Apple’s rumored AR glasses are expected to follow suit with this definition; however, they will naturally be putting their own spin on the innovation through a variety of features. Insider leaks have revealed that Apple is expected to separate itself from other competitors’ previous attempts to engineer AR glasses through features such as replacement for prescription lenses, reduced pricing, spatial computing, and iPhone synchronization. With that said, these expectations lie mostly in fireside chats among the tech community. Nevertheless, it would not come as a surprise for these rumors to be proven true due to the fact that many of Apple’s major competitors have already released their own versions of AR glasses.

WHO IS APPLE’S COMPETITION?

From GoogleGlass to Snapchat spectacles, Microsoft HoloLens, Magic Leap and Facebook’s own upcoming AR glasses, many have tried to make this technology work, yet to no successful avail. To date, the product category has been met with an underwhelming amount of enthusiasm from consumers and a considerable amount of “techlash” from the public. Google set the precedent with their debut of AR glasses (GoogleGlass) in 2013, just as hype around AR was hitting its innovation trigger. While expected to be a success with Google’s target set toward the general public, it was discontinued in 2015 after beta versions, “failed to gain traction due to a price tag of $1,500, clunky design and concerns around privacy.”

While Google has shifted focus with their AR glasses due to a considerable failure with GoogleGlass toward specifically business use, these economic, technical, and political issues have left a distaste toward the product category ever since. Microsoft then only followed suit with their AR glasses product (HoloLens) by reinforcing the same negative criticisms amongst consumers with their astronomical pricing of $3,500. Their condition that, “all sales are final and non-refundable” did not help gain consumer trust regarding these issues either. However, expectations around the rumored launching of Apple’s AR Glasses have gotten consumers hoping for a game-changer. In fact, insider leaks have reported that Apple’s AR Glasses product is inclusive of features directly targeting consumers negative feedback.

EXPECTATIONS: ARE WE OVERSELLING OURSELVES JUST TO BE UNDER DELIVERED?

PRICING: WILL IT BE AFFORDABLE?

On May 19th of 2020, Jon Prosser, well-known for his accurate Apple technology predictions, leaked that Apple has plans to set their AR Glasses at the price of $499 plus the price of the consumers prescription (if applicable). This comes as a stark difference to Google and Microsoft’s AR glasses. When comparing the expected pricing of Apple’s AR Glasses to other competitors’ set prices, the difference is significant. Insider leaks have attributed that much of this pricing has to do with the multiple electronics it requires to be built into the headset itself in order to run. Prosser claims that Apple’s AR Glasses are expected to, “operate the same way as the first generation of Apple Watch, with all data being processed on the iPhone.” According to Prosser, the feature of Apple’s AR Glasses running off of synchronization with the iPhone is exactly why Apple can afford to set the pricing of their product at such a reduced cost.

With Apple’s AR Glasses working as an aid to the iPhone (“for now”), similar to the Apple Watch, it requires consumers to own both products. The necessity to acquire these AR glasses at such a cheap price will increase revenues in Smartphone devices, as well. With the necessity to own the iPhone in order to be able to use Apple’s AR Glasses it drives the combined cost up to a monetary value in the thousands. Even with that, however, Apple’s AR Glasses rumored pricing will still continue to stand as the cheapest AR glasses on the market by a landslide.

This poses itself as a potentially notable economical issue as the reduction in price increases Apple AR Glasses’ chances of being a disruptive innovation. Not only that, but Apple’s business strategy of requiring that consumers own the iPhone to use the AR glasses also raises the possibility for something else: further monopolization of the tech market. In this regard, mass adoption of Apple’s AR Glasses overtaking the market and creating an even further lock-in effect for consumers is a sizable concern. The success behind Apple’s rumored AR glasses should pose as a large concern for many tech competitors.

Either way, for years companies have “over-promised and under-delivered on augmented reality glasses.”Whether Apple can be the company that finally brings those promises to fruition is something only time can tell. However, as far as rumors spread, leaks of Apple’s AR Glasses prototype and its features seem to be on the path to do so. As aforementioned, “clunkiness” and unappealing visual appearance has been regarded as a large criticism among consumers. This criticism works to Apple’s benefit as minimalistic designs making it simpler and easier to use for consumer masses is what Apple is known for.

DESIGN: SIMPLISTIC OR COMPLEX?

This is something that has distinguished Apple from all other tech brands on the market ever since they transformed personal computing by changing its complex and confusing interface to a graphical one in which everyone could understand in the 80s. Then once again, in 2001 with their emergence of the iPod making portable music less of a chore to navigate. Then one more time, in 2007 in which they introduced the iPhone by making Smartphones accessible by introducing multi-touch functions. Simplicity has always been at the core of Apple’s brand and has proved itself to be a successful business strategy against its competitors time and time again. This makes a new product category like AR glasses the ideal arena to push Apple’s strategy further as complexity and complication have been at the center of many consumers’ rejection of other AR glasses products.

BUSINESS STRATEGY: A DILEMMA OF CONTROL?

One thing that can hardly be debated is that Apple’s business strategy is nothing short of highly calculated. This success has all worked as a result of waiting for the perfect time to release a product into the market and has been reflected in the company’s reputation and revolutionary technologies. A common misstep from many other tech companies is to act too fast and it is met with an even faster failure. Ray Kurzweil, scientist and futurist, spoke that “most inventions fail not because the R&D department can’t get them to work but because the timing is wrong.” Kurzweil explains inventing as a lot like surfing, “you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment.” Following that argument, Apple can be considered a champion at surfing the tech wave. This is reflected again in Apple’s conscious choice to wait to enter the market with the release of AR glasses.

While the well-known dilemma of control (knowledge v. power) may be known as a tough quandary for many companies in the tech market to face, Apple’s choice to stand with knowledge gains them a considerable advantage on other tech competitors. The strategic choice in which to wait to release Apple’s AR Glassesproduct brings the company expansive amounts of knowledge and data regarding the failures of other tech companies and it is expected to pay off in the long run.

With the assumption that Apple has had AR glasses on their minds for quite some time, the idea that their decision to exchange the benefits of knowledge for the benefits of power is quite sound. This decision to such a dilemma ended up working largely to Apple’s favor. Google Glass proved itself a disaster through a multitude of facets. Snapchat Spectacles were largely met with disinterest and a lack of consumer enthusiasm. Microsoft Lens managed to set themselves as far too expensive for the common day user creating even further distaste to the idea, hopes, and expectations of any AR glasses. By forming the decision to make their debut of AR glasses later on in the game, the brand has been able to gather valuable information on the criticisms and hard failures of their competitors to enhance their development of the product.

PATENTS

According to a Bloomberg report, Apple’s Smart Glasses Could Make 2020 the Year of AR, Apple has a patent that allows for streaming of information from your phone to your face, specifically the glasses, “are expected to synchronize with the wearers iPhone to display things such as, texts, emails, maps, and games over the users’ field of vision.” According to another patent, the system will be capable of identifying vision problems and will automatically adjust the refraction of the displays and lenses to help a user see. This eliminates the need to wear prescription lenses beneath the AR device. These all show as patents created based on what consumers were expecting to see from previous AR glasses yet didn’t receive. Whether there are any contradictions or questionable assumptions behind these promises is hard to say.

As most of these promises are built off of rumors, it is the consumer that is creating their own expectations. Therefore, the promises being made are only as contradictory and questionable as the consumers make them. This advantage has shown itself as quite evident when recognizing all the features and benefits that Apple has been rumored to be including in the purchase of their AR glasses product.

THE HYPE CYCLE: IS IT WORTH THE EXCITEMENT?

In 2016, the International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science published an article that spoke in regards to the launch of GoogleGlass and claimed that “in the event that one investigates Gartner’s hype cycle (2014), Wearable User Interfaces (AR glasses) are at the highest point of the buildup yet with a course of events of up to 10 years until they get to be widespread.” With rumors that Apple will launch their AR glasses in the year of 2023 (exactly 9 years post predictions concerning Gartner’s hype cycle), it seems highly unlikely that such a projected release date would pose as a coincidence. In fact, Apple would be entering the market with their version of AR glasses at just the right time for hype and elevated expectations to reach the stage of Slope of Enlightenment. This stage in the hype cycle is most notably known as one in which we start to see rapid advancements that can surpass even our wildest expectations. Perhaps this falls well in line with Apple CEO, Tim Cook’s vision that augmented reality will one day, “pervade your life.”

SELLING POINT: APPLE’S BRAND NARRATIVE THAT YOU’VE FALLEN IN LOVE WITH

Above all features, dilemmas of control, and high market share, Apple holds something that not many other tech companies do- a narrative. In fact, Apple has been known to sell stories of promise and vision, just as well as they have been known to sell revolutionary technology. While Steve Jobs may have been the CEO of Apple, he also stood in consumers hearts as a visionary bringing hope into the future. In an age in which public distrust goes hand in hand with technology, Jobs dismantled a reputation of corruption and brought forward an inspiring look towards the future. It was Jobs that sold consumers on the promise of Apple as a brand rather than individual promises regarding the company’s technologies. This feeling that Jobs instilled within Apple’s consumers has carried over and reflected greatly in the fact that without even releasing an official statement on the development of these AR glasses, customer expectations and rumors alone have sufficed enough for consumers to buy into the “promise” of the emerging innovation.

STAKEHOLDERS: WHO STANDS TO LOSE, WHO STANDS TO GAIN?

Apple has been rated as the top technology company in regard to assets and terms of revenue and is valued at over 700 billion dollars, ranking as the largest company by market capitalization. According to Forbes Magazine, Apple’s, “revenue could grow by 30% in 2020 to about $32 billion, driven by the new Airpods Pro wireless earphones and the Apple Watch Series 5.” With that, there are stakeholders involved in Apple’s company that dictate largely how innovations are developed and produced. Therefore, it is crucial that the company maintain satisfaction with their many stakeholders. Even though the company has come across challenges in terms of corporate social responsibility efforts, Apple is known to contribute much of its success through its important roles given to all stakeholders. Due to the fact that Apple’s multiple stakeholders hold both direct and indirect influence and impact on the business organization, it is essential that the company invests in the stakeholder’s interests and satisfaction.

Apple holds both internal and external stakeholders that are primarily inclusive of Apple’s employees, customers/consumers, suppliers/distributors, governmental agencies/regulators, creditors, investors, and society. In accordance with the “quadruple helix” model, these stakeholders all fall into the categories of private sector, government, academia/universities, and civil society. With reports such as Business Insider, Forbes Magazine, and Wall Street Journal considering Apple one of the most valuable brands in the world, stakeholders are interested in maintaining that reputation. Therefore, Apple stakeholders concerns mostly revolve around, “encompassing product quality and function, business sustainability, employment practices, and financial performance.”

PRIVATE SECTOR: EMPLOYEES, INVESTORS, CREDITORS, SUPPLIERS/DISTRIBUTORS

In regard to public sectors, Apple employees, investors, creditors, and suppliers/distributors rank as some of the brand’s most significant. Apple takes large effort in making sure that their employees are well taken care of and are receiving the kind of work environment that matches the human capital they are bringing into the company. In order for Apple to maintain satisfaction amongst their employees, interests of fair wages and salaries, job security, career development, recognition and a supportive working environment are all extremely important factors to tailor to. Furthermore, employees need to be ensured of ethical treatment and safe working environments through the company.

So far, Apple has been known to meet these needs with flying colors. As Apple considers its employees critical to their success, the company ensures competitive compensation and career development opportunities. This works in effort to also gain a competitive edge on other companies recruiting for similar positions. As a result, Apple has one of the best human resources management and employee compensation policies in Silicon Valley. Therefore, if Apple is able to keep their employees happy, then their human capital and overall company satisfaction will continue to rise. In application to the owners as stakeholders it lies as quite straightforward. Since, Apple is a publicly traded company which is largely profitable this on its own takes care of the main needs of the owners.

Creditors are also main actors within Apple’s internal stakeholder groups. As creditors are financial institutions and lenders who provide credit to the company, they have an important influence on its operation. Even more so, they have the ability to enhance its operations quite significantly. Most needs that Apple’s creditors are concerned with revolve around, financial stability, return on investment, interest of credit, and maintaining a mutually beneficial relationship. By providing Apple with short term and long-term finances necessary for the company’s operations and development, it is essential that Apple tends to these stakeholders.

In addition to employees and creditors, Apple’s suppliers/distributors play a large role in the private sector of the companies’ stakeholders, as well. As suppliers/distributors are one of the most important ingredients for the brand’s success, a good relationship between Apple and its supplier is essential. This is fair to say because without a good relationship with its supplier, then Apple will not be able to provide its consumers with quality products in a proper time frame. This in turn, affects many other stakeholders’ satisfaction with the company. Moreover, without a good supplier, Apple faces a large disadvantage compared to its other competitors working to steal the company’s consumer base.

GOVERNMENT

Aside from stakeholders in the public sector, governmental agencies and regulators play a large role as stakeholders in Apple’s company, as well. The government holds strong influence over business operations through enforcement of the law, taxation and a strong bargaining power by the virtue of being a large customer. Therefore, it is vital for Apple’s success as a company to attend to their needs as a stakeholder. Much of the governments needs and interests in business activities revolve around corporate taxes, community support (i.e. employment and provision of goods and services), compliance to the legal regulations, and annual returns. If Apple does not tend to these then the company will struggle to expand.

Moreover, the government is in charge of many limitations and allowances that give the company guidelines on how to move forward in certain developmental and production-driven directions. Apple must also be cautious of certain government regulators that are specifically geared towards concerns of anti-trust and potential monopolies among many tech companies. If the company does not adhere to certain guidelines or keep the consumers at the heart of their best interests, Apple stands to gain a lot of trouble. In addition, the government functions to collect taxes from the company, its employees, and from other spending the company does. As the amount of money in collected taxes is dependent on Apple’s profit, this is where the governmental agencies as stakeholders hold the most to gain.

ACADEMIA/UNIVERSITIES

Taking into consideration academia/universities, Apple invests in these actors quite seriously. As stakeholders within the education system are composed of different research centers, scientists, and students, it stands to benefit Apple to place large interest on these groups. This can be shown within the fact that Apple has a large engagement with students in education systems as stakeholders. Apple has acknowledged that outstanding excellence can thrive in the abilities of students and therefore has worked to create partnerships with universities to foster positive relationships.

According to a recent July 2020 press release from Apple, the company has moved forward with plans to expand partnerships with Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) to create communities for expanding knowledge in coding and utilizing student’s creativity. Not only that, but Apple has its own academia stakeholders within their company, as well. Apple has recognized the benefits of training and education to such a degree that they have created their own university, “Apple University.” Here they focus on instructing different personnel employed by Apple on different elements of Apple’s corporate culture and technology. By putting emphasis on this part of a stakeholder group, Apple is investing not only in the future of their employees, but the quality of their human capital and employee accreditation as well.

CIVIL SOCIETY: CONSUMERS/THE GENERAL PUBLIC

Civil society is also a key contributor to Apple’s stakeholders. As of a March 2020 Statista Report, Apple has approximately 1.4 billion customers and supporters all over the world. Apple’s loyalty to their consumers can be shown in the fact that the company has never been shy to publicize that the stakeholder group they care about the most is their customers. At Apple, all the companies developmental and organizational goals are centered around meeting the needs of its customers. This is only further emphasized in the overall message of Apple’s mission statement to bring the best user experience to its customers through innovative hardware, software, and services. Apple recognizes that without satisfying their other stakeholder groups, it would be impossible for the company to fulfill the promise of its mission. Apple also understands that without bringing satisfaction to its consumers, they cannot keep their other stakeholder groups happy either.

Due to the fact that these customers are the ones buying and using the products, they play a large role in the public sector, government, and academia stakeholders’ satisfaction with Apple. Therefore, Apple stands to gain both positive marketing and financial success by making the consumers the stakeholder they focus most heavily on. To address customer’s needs, Apple has set up customer care centers (i.e. “Genius Bar”) that allows the company to deal with customer feedback more efficiently and effectively. In the same breath, it allows them to gain further data on how customers would like to see new Apple technologies upgrade and what new innovations would gain traction among their targeted consumer markets.

The main interest of Apple’s customers is that they get “value for their money through quality and effective products and reasonable prices.” This is an important need for Apple to focus on in general since the company holds a reputation for producing relatively expensive products. With that said, since Apple manages to keep their customers happy in the quality department, the company’s premium price strategy has yielded great results. However, things will need to change with Apple’s release of AR glasses. As mentioned above, Apple’s AR Glasses rumored decrease in pricing will be a large make it or break it element in whether or not the product will appeal to the masses and gain widespread consumer adoption. While Apple may be known for selling highly priced technology, reducing its prices compared to their competitors in the same market will be an important factor of whether or not the product will sell.

Another main actor in civil society that Apple occupies itself with is the general public. Not only does Apple concern themselves with their direct consumer base, but also with their companies’ reputation and place in society, as a whole. By allowing ethical and moral principles to guide Apple’s innovations and having a commitment to the welfare of society as a primary value of the company, Apple meets the better needs and interests of the entire community. Groups such as, citizen advocacy organizations, non-profit foundations, religious groups, labor unions, and environment CSOs are receiving attention from Apple through commitments to address ethical and societal concerns through their operational areas. To do this, Apple has involved itself in numerous charitable activities as part of its vow to corporate social responsibility.

Apple has made partnerships with non-profit organizations, such as, the Product RED campaign and donations to charitable organizations such as Red Cross to show its commitment. Apple addresses ethical and societal concerns that are raised through different public values and it contributes to its bountiful consumer base and customer loyalty. With Apples high brand loyalty and wide recognition, keeping stakeholders in the company satisfied is what brings their brand so much success. This will be essential in the launching of Apple’s AR Glasses as the company will face many promotional and controlling factors of governance in its production and development. The main actors and stakeholders in Apple that stand something to gain will contribute large influencing factors on the main carriers that will enable and constrain the innovation.

When taking into account that Apple’s rumored debut of AR glasses has the potential to disrupt every aspect of socio-technological change, such as, economic, political, moral, and environmental factors, it makes sense that governance around the product would need to be highly prevalent. The potential effects on society that the product category of AR glasses hold has the possibility to completely change the way that consumers engage in technology, gather data and information on others, and even the way that many different industries operate today. These are not only all reasons to both promote and control such an innovation, but also a possible foreshadowing into the economic, political, and technological uncertainties that come along with the development and production of Apple’s AR Glasses.

GOVERNANCE: THE PROMOTION AND THE CONTROL

With uncertainties aside (for now), main carriers that will work to enable and promote the innovation of Apple’s AR Glasses are factors such as various types of public resource endowments (i.e. scientific research, financing & insurance, human capital, cultural beliefs, expectations, visionaries). Apple has a bounty of financing and insurance, human capital, and visions for the future, so this isn’t something they have much to be concerned about regarding the governance of their AR glasses.

With Apple’s long-standing credibility as a company known for its revolutionary technologies, finding financing and insurance is no challenge. Furthermore, with the assistance of Apple’s highly regarded reputation, the ability to employ, train, and accredit some of the most talented engineers comes with ease. In respect to the brand’s vision for the future, that is something that Apple is known by. In regard to the promotion of innovation, Apple has no issues with obtaining resources, raising awareness and creating hype, or gaining strong human capital. However, just as any other innovation, Apple also struggles with the controlling nature that institutional arrangements can have on its company’s production and development.

Many governmental laws and regulations that have been put in place may serve as obstacles Apple will come across in their development of AR glasses. These could be potentially frustrating as the company will be forced to adhere to these potential road blockers. If not, any form of control governance put in place will at least be sure to delay the production and release of their product. With that said, it is smart to have strong control factors in regard to the production of AR, in general.

Even more so, with Apple being expected to be the company that does revolutionize the tech market with its version of smart glasses, it would be sound to have these factors implemented quite strongly. This only makes sense when considering that, “any application of technology that causes large costs quickly draws society’s attention to it and the costs it imposes provide a strong incentive to correct them.” Whether or not Apple’s smart glasses will prove to bring any harm or cost to the public and its users remains to be decided by the future.

Economic, political, and technical uncertainties surrounding privacy, monopolization, creative destruction, and safety all pose as potential threats coming with the success of Apple’s smart glasses product. With that said, these potentials are large enough for an emphasis to be put on control governance. While successful innovations lie in the need to move forth fearlessly, governance regulators such as antitrust laws, product testing, and other ethics/risk testing will need to be put in place in order to discover and deal with possible risks.

THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES: ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND TECHNICAL

As previously mentioned, the potential success of widespread mass adoption regarding a successful Apple smart glasses product brings many economic, political, and technical uncertainties all posing as issues. However, it is necessary to keep in mind that there is a large amount of uncertainty that is inherent in the innovation process. In many ways, “innovation is a hypothesis, whose truth cannot be established with certainty.” With that said, while technology drives opportunities for new innovations, implementing new technology creates uncertainty on the success of the innovation. Therefore, with the development of any new innovation comes a set of economic, political, and technical uncertainties.

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

One of the largest economic uncertainties that other companies have faced with their debut of smart glasses was feedback received from consumers on issues regarding pricing. A large portion of negative feedback surrounding smart glasses, existent on the market today claim that, the usefulness and ease of this emerging innovation are still mostly minor for the customer. With Apple being the only company rumored to drive their costs down below $1,000 this eliminates that problem. For the reasons of lower costs which in byproduct will appeal to lower-end market and debuting their smart glasses much later than other competitors, Apple stands to create quite a disruptive innovation with its entrance of smart glasses into the market. This will strongly challenge competitors to work overtime to find ways to reduce their production costs to compete with Apple, which will allow Apple to continue to move ahead of them in product quality and quantity.

In addition, with the success of Apple’s smart glasses, creative destruction of many other areas runs as a large risk. With the vision that Apple’s debut of AR will also infiltrate the workforce, this will change the way largely in which jobs are conducted. With smart glasses affording many working-class jobs a hands-free technology for smarter and more efficient hands-on work, productivity will exponentially rise. This will fuel economic growth in a positive direction, however creative destruction will be an inevitable byproduct.

Even without the launching of Apple’s smart glasses the product category of smart glasses brings creative destruction as an economic uncertainty. According to an August 2020 Statista Report, it is predicted that the number of U.S. workers adopting smart glasses is forecasted to reach about 8.8 million in 2021. This large number is predicted to infiltrate the job market even before the debut of Apple’s smart glasses. With that said, it will be with the successful mass adoption of a smart glasses product, such as Apple’s are expected to be that pushes this creative destruction at full throttle. Therefore, the public can assume an exponential increase in those numbers post Apple’s smart glasses debut. This projection will bring a considerable impact to the workforce. Not only that, it will bring a considerable impact to the entire U.S. economy. However, this is inevitable in anything that brings change to the economy through technology.

This was mirrored in the 1920s and 1930s in how the “transition to cars initially contributed to an agricultural depression that affected the entire American economy.” The automobile industry greatly influenced the workforce and the way the economy reacted to such a new technology. With the widespread adoption of cars, Henry Ford’s invention of the assembly line was implemented and revolutionized the operations of the workforce. While the automobile industry was seen as having a negative economic impact initially, its influence on the workforce eventually brought large expansion of industry sectors, more employment opportunities, and an increase in a precious commodity of time.

While the automobile industry brought its own set of creative destruction, its long-term results brought large economic benefit. Whether this will or will not be mirrored with a widespread adoption of smart glasses currently stands as unknown. Regardless, Apple’s expected reduction in pricing for its smart glasses and late emergence to the market will not only appeal to every category of consumer from innovators to laggards, but also how much more affordable they will be to implement in the workforce.

While economic uncertainties pose potential for Apple’s smart glasses to be a disruptive innovation, there are potential political uncertainties that come along with their debut, as well. One of them is a political issue that Apple has already received a large amount of techlash from consumers and the anti-trust sector of the government, which is its potential monopolization of the tech market. With Apple’s business strategy of reducing the pricing of their smart glasses being reliant on the necessity of owning an iPhone, this comes with a large set of potential problems.

Just as any complex engineered system builds its own path dependency, Apple has created its own as well over the history of the company’s growth. Since the release of the iPhone, Apple’s technologies have been building off of one another producing a lock-in effect for the consumer. This lock-in effect is built off of Apple’s knowledge that its Smartphones are at the center of many structures of interactions in society today, so the company holds the ability to pressure consumers to own all of their products in order to be able to access and use their newest technologies.

With Apple expected to be the brand that “gets it right” in relation to smart glasses, this holds potential for full monopolization of the tech market, effectively over time kicking out competitors such as Microsoft, Google, and more. If Apple is to afford masses of consumers with new quality technology at a reduced cost, then all different categories of consumers (i.e. innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, laggards) will gravitate towards adopting all of Apple’s technologies. Just as early as innovators will want Apple’s products for the purpose of shiny new technology, laggards will want to transition to Apple technologies for the purpose of reduced pricing.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: DATA & PRIVACY LAWS

The release of Apple’s smart glasses will come with other potential political uncertainties, as well. Apple will have to prepare to face scrutiny for issues surrounding privacy laws and data security, just as the other smart glasses competitors have had to undergo. While the gathering of individuals who record and share their lives has widened at the same rate as the improvements in the development of smart glasses, the public still raises large alarm around adopting technologies that may further infringe on their privacy rights. Smart glasses have gone under fire for making this process even easier.

One of the main issues against the functioning and utilization of smart glasses is people’s distress with the thought of always having the capacity to be recorded and transferred on the Internet. This will bring along a wide-spread potential of normative (ethical, legal, cultural, environmental, social justice) concerns. As other companies have been met with negative criticism around the potential of invading data and privacy laws with their version of smart glasses, it will be up to Apple to reverse this judgement that the public has regarding augmented reality and the development of smart glasses.

TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTIES: WILL THEY ACTUALLY WORK?

Concerning technical uncertainties, there are numerous difficulties that come along with such an innovation. With any technology innovation, the technical feasibility, usefulness, functionality, and quality problems all could pose as different uncertainties that could delay or fail its development and production. According to the journal publication, Who Will Buy Smart Glasses? “technological uncertainty is attributed to ‘lack of knowledge of the details of new technology or due to lack of knowledge required to use new technology.’” Luckily, in this regard Apple is in quite a comfortable position. With the benefit that Apple has gained from entering the market late with their own version of smart glasses, Apple has been able to acquire enough knowledge around what has been well received by the public and what has not.

A main complaint regarding technical issues with smart glasses has been raised in regard to interface functionality. There are concerns around the functionality of prescription usage of smart glasses and whether this is something that can be relied upon or whether it can actually deteriorate a consumer’s vision. In the 1970s, Steve Mann, a guru of wearable innovation, found that utilization of his model of smart glasses disturbed vision, while much advancement has been made, this potential technical uncertainty still lies at the center of much public apprehension regarding smart glasses. Here, Apple will face the same technical uncertainties as their competitors.

SCENARIOS: WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES?

Scenario planning provides a strategic tool for decision making and with Apple’s AR Glasses expected to make a large impact on the future, considering a variety of alternative futures could be helpful. As technology exponentially advances, differences in lifestyle will shift. Future technologies will move us towards a world of free memory, omnipresent data collection, and enormous serial processing of data using sophisticated software and Apple’s AR Glasses are expected to only aid that path. A successful adoption of Apple’s AR Glasses will bring an entirely different element to immersive technology and the structure of interactions within the general public.

How we know information and communication today, will be revolutionized with the advancement of technology. In regard to Apple’s AR Glasses, one of the most significant high uncertainty/high impact scenarios contributing to the products future is the effect that different levels of government intervention around the innovation will have on the public. In order to consider the effects of each different level of government intervention, various scenarios should be debated in order to fully understand their implications.

SCENARIO 1: HIGH GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION

First, the scenario of high government intervention needs to be considered. The year is 2025 and Apple strongly regrets their launching of smart glasses. With the initial mass adoption of Apple’s AR Glasses, Apple began to drive out other competitors in the tech market and this raised large political distress. Due to high government intervention and strict anti-trust regulations, the government’s antitrust congressional committee saw the trajectory toward Apple leading to full monopolization of the tech market. This resulted in the government effectively calling an end to all monopolies and enforcing that Apple changes its business strategy.

Since it is apparent that Apple will have to change their business strategies and break apart the need for consumers to acquire most other Apple technologies for the smart glasses to function, the company is met with large technical difficulties. Apple is in need to rewrite and remanufacture the entire design of the smart glasses which produces kinks in the technology and inevitably leads to public harm. With Apple’s AR Glasses having been adopted by so many, Apple’s change in business strategy leaves the public in disarray.

In order for the government not to enforce a full shutdown of the company, Apple struck a deal. In exchange for the ability to continue to operate in the tech market, Apple signed an underground agreement that the government could take full control of information and data received from users of its technologies. With access to such information on users, the current ruling party in political power abuses this to their benefit. With high government antitrust regulations, large scale companies no longer hold the same power over politics that they used to.

With further information into how the user thinks and behaves, the current political party in power uses this to guide their campaign strategies. Now, the government has gained enough data to be able to manipulate the public into how they want the public to think and behave. With the bounty of information given on users, the government uses it to blackmail other individuals in power to sign on to their agenda or risk being exposed. A full monarchy is established, and the thought of democracy is a laughable side note in history.

SCENARIO 2: LOW GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION

In a scenario of low government intervention, the world has reached the year of 2025 and the nation has hit a sweet spot. The result of low government intervention on emerging innovations and the tech market exists mostly in the positive. With Apple’s AR Glasses providing affordable prices available to the public for mass adoption, access to vast amounts of hands-free information almost instantly is afforded to the everyday user. This allows users to make the most of their time and increases their productivity. With high consumer demand for the technology, Apple is needed to expand its company affording large employment opportunities in all different job departments, especially manufacturing.

With better access to large amounts of information and affordable prices, large universities afford their students with the technology, as well. Universities use the augmented reality wearable user interface to enhance the classroom experience. All different educational departments are provided an entirely new set of opportunities with the technology’s endless features. The world is not only shifting to one primarily dominated by technology, but one driven by augmented reality, as well. With its affordable prices getting cheaper with each new version update, Apple’s AR Glasses are available for lower economic classes to afford. Now, access to endless amounts of information and education to the public is becoming a reality, regardless of wealth.

Structure of interactions have shifted to live exclusively through a virtual and augmented reality. Schools are able to hold their classroom experience from the comfort of every student’s home with Apple’s AR Glasses simulating the same environment. Meetings of any community can be done virtually as well, eliminating the need for travel. With governmental regulation available only for the need to provide an “invisible hand,” laws around technology are put in place where they are needed but not controlled. This makes it so that more information is accessible on the user yet regulated with the right level of government power. Data and privacy laws are established well enough not to dictate the information that is accessible to the user. The more the public goes virtual, the larger the data footprint they acquire.

Stricter anti-trust regulations are put in place to assure that Apple doesn’t entirely overtake the market, but not to the point that it would constrain its development of new technologies entirely. While there are still kinks and negative effects associated with Apple’s AR Glasses, such as an inevitable amount of public distrust toward any rapidly embraced emerging technology, the public has been able to use it toward its benefit with the companionship of low government intervention. The commodity of time has become larger and people are able to engage in more creative ventures. Apple’s AR Glasses have brought upon the ability for people to interact with one another in an easier and faster fashion and values are allocated through a completely different metric non-reliant on economic class.

SCENARIO 3: NO GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION

Now, consider a world with no government intervention. Apple has dominated the entire tech market. Not just that, but Apple has gone as far as to dictate all allocation of values and structures of interaction. What was thought to be the next step in a technological trajectory shifted itself into an entirely new scientific paradigm consisting only of Apple technologies. What began as a potential political uncertainty of monopolization in the rumored development stages of Apple’s AR Glasses turned into a grim reality within 2 years of its released date. As Apple managed to drive their prices down for their augmented reality user wearable interface, mass adoption around this technology was formed.

However, due to an inability to match consumer demand for all Apple technologies, production is backed up and late adopters/lower economic classes are deprived from assimilating to a new technological era. Values are allocated based on an individual’s ability to afford Apple’s AR Glasses due to the fact that structures of interaction now entirely rely on the technology. With no government intervention, there has been no anti-trust regulations around separating the market and the public’s opinions and behaviors have become entirely influenced by Apple.

Data and privacy laws have been thrown out the door and social media platforms, such as, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter have joined efforts with Apple to enhance the appeal of the AR glasses. With any passing by stranger, individual’s digital footprint lies accessible to any other users at their fancy. As accessible as data is on any person in this society through the use of Apple’s AR Glasses, the code finds itself ridden with errors. Law enforcement uses them in their attempts to fight crime, yet due flawed algorithms it leads to the imprisonment of the wrong people.

Apple’s AR Glasses provides instant access to vast amounts of hands-free knowledge to users has been incorporated into engineering processes and many uses in academia and research centers. With no ethical laws and regulations existent around Apple’s AR Glasses, many scientists use the Apple technology to produce other corrupt innovations, some without even knowing. Fast and large amounts of information available at a cheap enough price that not only the elite can gain access to creates a society ridden with argument and hardship. There are no regulations around fact checking any information accessible through Apple’s AR Glasses and it brings large public tension between individuals affiliating with opposing political parties.

The public’s values have been challenged and protests have overtaken the media and everyday life. A day without a protest (now erupting as violent, due to the fact many societal and ethical opinions are increasingly clashing) is a day that remains unknown in the year of 2025. With no government interaction, the White House and other government agencies and regulators remain quiet. The nation has moved toward a new generation, the iGeneration, and there’s no end in sight.

RECOMMENDATIONS: REACHING FOR THE BEST OUTCOME

As seen in the high government intervention and no government intervention scenarios, this isn’t one where stakeholder groups such as the private sector, academia, civil society, or even the government would want to be. While, in many ways the high government intervention benefits the government stakeholder, it also disadvantages it. With the government as a stakeholder’s main concern being whether or not the company is making money, the strict regulations around antitrust and distrust towards monopolies hurts them considerably. Now that all four stakeholder groups stand to gain things lost in both the high government and no government intervention scenarios, recommendations need to be given in order for all to move toward the ideal scenario of low government intervention around Apple’s AR Glasses and the tech market, as a whole.

PRIVATE SECTOR: RESPONSIBLE INNOVATION IS ESSENTIAL

In order for the private sector to create a desirable future in which Apple’s AR Glasses fit, Apple will need to closely monitor the responsible innovation of their emerging innovation. This can only specifically be done through its private sector, as this stakeholder includes the actors that affect the inner works and operations of the company. Apple’s owners will need to make sure that ethical values are the center front of Apple’s company and business’ strategies. If not, Apple runs into trouble by creating technologies that produce many unwanted effects, such as breach of data and privacy laws, further class divide, and unrest within civil society.

In order to implement these ethical values, Apple will need to make sure the company puts in place teams that will be able to monitor the different dimensions of responsible innovation, such as anticipation, inclusiveness, reflexivity, and responsiveness during the development of their AR glasses. Apple holds a large advantage by being able to see where other companies went wrong with their release of AR glasses and different consumer reactions. It is essential that Apple uses this to their benefit to not only create a product that benefits them revenue-wise, but also the public. If they do not, in a high-government intervention scenario it is most likely that larger control governance and strict regulation will be put around the company due to the fact that the company no longer has the best public interest in mind.

GOVERNMENT: UPDATE DATA & PRIVACY LAWS

In specificity to the government there are not many recommendations that can be given other than close monitoring of Apple’s development of the smart glasses. While enabling the promotion of the innovation through institutional arrangements is important for the success of Apple’s AR Glasses, the government must also function as an actor to ensure that the direction of the smart glasses exists along an ethical trajectory. In order to accomplish this, laws taking into consideration wearable augmented reality interfaces must be taken into consideration when revising and adding to currently existent data and privacy laws.

The government must anticipate different scenarios on how the success of Apple’s smart glasses may affect the public and where they must place close watch in order to be able to intervene. Therefore, the stakeholder group must also watch over tax breaks given to the company and transparency in product testing. In general, the government will need to place a role as stakeholder in the governance of Apple’s smart glasses by placing a delicate balance between the control and promotion governance of the innovation through institutional arrangements.

ACADEMIA/UNIVERSITIES: INVEST IN THE FUTURE

In regard to academia and universities it will be important that institutions build young students that can operate in a future of rapidly advancing technology. It will be important to create and foster responsible and ethical future engineers for students looking to enter into the tech field. If the future of innovation lies in the hands of students being educated now, then it is worth universities investing in making sure every student gets an education well-versed in both technology and the liberal arts.

This will help expand knowledge around how to interact with the future of technology and prepare students for what it may look like. In addition, Apple should focus on investing money into research surrounding responsible innovation processes and employing different research centers and universities to help with such initiatives. Efforts such as these will work toward a better future for all parties involved.

CIVIL SOCIETY: KNOW YOUR RIGHTS AS A USER

Civil society as stakeholders hold a large role in directing the trajectory of Apple’s smart glasses. As much as the public sector, government, and academia stakeholders can contribute to what the outcome of the smart glasses will be, it largely lays in the hand of the consumer. Consumers will need to prepare themselves for what differences may come along with the mass adoption of smart glasses. This can be done through education around the costs and benefits that can come with such a wearable augmented reality interface.

One of the simplest things that consumers can do to achieve this is through reading the Terms and Conditions of Apple and its technologies before using the product. Apple’s smart glasses will inevitably bring up data and privacy law issues. With the more that society shifts to a large online presence, the public’s data will be more accessible. It will be important for consumers to know their rights, so that they know how they are protected and how they may potentially be exploited as users. This concerns the general public, as well. The age of augmented reality is coming whether the public wants to embrace it or not.

With that, it is essential that they begin to ask questions now and challenge the potential implications for the production on smart glasses such as Apple’s now, as well. While this may have been done with other companies release of smart glasses, it will be even more imperative with another effort to make the product successful by Apple. The more questions, concerns, and opinions that the public can form now will be able to help Apple in its development of the smart glasses and guide it toward a more desirable and responsible future.

A FINAL STATEMENT:

The launch of Apple’s venture into augmented reality only marks the first chapter into the rest of the future. Fair warning: This is only the beginning.