HELP Us Change Our Mind and (Not) Open Schools Too Soon
By Drew Catt
As a native of Indiana and science fiction fan, I grew up loving Steven Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind and was downright giddy when Stranger Things lasted more than just one season. Both of those storylines, in some ways, seem more plausible than what we’ve been experiencing in 2020.
While I certainly have my own thoughts on what the not-so-distant future might look like that I’d be more than happy to share over a virtual happy hour or during a socially-distant meander through nature, the thing that has been mostly on my mind is how in the bloody hell schools are going to have students physically attend classes in the fall.
As someone who works in the world of education policy research and evaluation, I’m excited to see entrenched districts finally adjust in ways that are more focused on individual learners. As a pragmatist with a spouse who teaches at a large public high school and who falls into one of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) buckets of “higher risk for severe illness” from COVID-19, I’m “Scooby Doo and Shaggy encounter a specter”-level frightened of schools fully opening in the fall.
I’d normally label myself as extremely risk tolerant. These are not normal times.
Some are saying the United States is already experiencing its second wave of the virus. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is estimating that the number of deaths from COVID-19 will increase about one-third in the United States within the next eight weeks — before most schools would normally start — and another model is predicting the number of deaths from COVID-19 could potentially double in the United States by September 1st.
In the times of a pandemic, it makes sense to listen to the recommendations of the CDC. Except I’m not sure that a list of things that schools may want to consider really counts as recommendations. It seems more of a CYA approach that lets them say they told schools what they should maybe do. And it seems that state departments of education are doing the same in publishing a list of considerations.
The consideration I see as the biggest hurdle for all schools is maintaining social distance on school buses, while I can’t envision at all how high schools would limit mixing between groups of students without forcing students in the same homeroom to be in all of the same classes with teachers rotating like they will most likely (or already) do at the K-8 level.
One of the top minds in education policy research co-authored a post “Science Says: ‘Open the Schools’,” which lays out the myriad ways a school positively impacts students beyond basic education. An analysis by the Association of School Business Officials International and The School Superintendents Association shows that an average district may have to spend nearly $1.8 million to follow the CDC ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶m̶m̶e̶n̶d̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ considerations, and the American Federation of Teachers says public schools have already lost twice as many jobs than they did during the Great Recession, and it will cost at least $116.5 billion to safely reopen schools. (Note of caution: As one of my colleagues pointed out, we should look closely at the assumptions made by those groups and think critically about the non-dollar costs they omit, such as time and opportunity cost. But those are the numbers currently in the media).
Moreover, my colleagues have written about the additional strain that might be caused from private school students switching into public schools. And I don’t know how schools that are already laying off teachers are going to be able to staff smaller, socially-distanced classes.
It seems like the fiscally responsible thing to do is for schools to stay virtual until we know it’s safe to return back to “normal” — whatever the new version of that will look like. Children elsewhere in the world have been told they won’t be physically back in their school buildings until a vaccine to protect against COVID-19 is available.
According to EdWeek Research Center’s latest survey, nearly two-thirds (65%) of teachers, principals and district leaders say school buildings should remain closed to slow the spread of COVID-19. More than one-third (36%) have a health condition that puts them in one of the CDC’s “higher risk for severe illness” buckets, and another 7 percent are 65 or older. Also, there’s now a CDC report showcasing evidence supporting pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission.
That means the spouses of more than two out of five teachers, principals and district leaders are probably in a similar boat as me. Usually it’s encouraging to know you’re not alone in how you’re thinking about the world, but that survey finding is depressing.
I’m really glad I’m not a district superintendent right now, because I have no idea what I’d be doing with all of that information. I also know that I wouldn’t be able to bite my tongue if I had families telling me their kids won’t wear masks at school. Along with the CDC Director, I’m very concerned with the lack of people following ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶m̶m̶e̶n̶d̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ considerations in my community.
Even though I’m not a district leader and I’m not deciding whether or how a school is going to have students physically attending in the fall, I was looking for ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶d̶e̶r̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ someone to tell school leaders what to do while watching the Senate HELP Committee’s hearing Going Back to School Safely this week.
And I don’t think I was the only one.
Witnesses were Dr. Penny Schwinn (Commissioner of Education for Tennessee), Dr. Matthew Blomstedt (Commissioner of Education for Nebraska) and Susana Cordova (Superintendent of Denver Public Schools). Superintendent Cordova said her district is working on how to provide more childcare so parents are able to work from home, Dr. Schwinn talked about how teachers need to focus on teaching and not lawsuits and that any decision moving forward has significant costs, and Dr. Blomstedt talked about a “risk dial” he’s working on to help schools decide whether or not to send students back into buildings. However, Senator Patty Murray (Washington) said it is likely that there will be schools that need to keep their buildings closed to students and at-risk students face some of the greatest challenges during COVID-19.
Although it seems like nobody has a solid answer yet for whether schools should reopen in the coming months, I’m selfishly hoping that at least teachers and students who are “higher risk for severe illness” can continue working and learning remotely.
Having said that, new research related to COVID-19 is coming out every day, and everyone’s just trying to build the plane as they fly it. Except instead of trying to reach new heights, the main goal is just to land the plane without everyone getting bitten by a highly venomous snake.
Drew Catt is the director of state research and special projects for EdChoice. He conducts geospatial analyses, analyses on private educational choice programs and surveys of private school leaders and parents of school-aged children.
