Efficient Frontier
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Efficient Frontier

Transitory supercycle

Welcome back to Efficient Frontier’s bitweekly newsletter

Waiting for volatility

Source: MattBallen
Left: Virtual reality related tokens enjoyed a large run up after FaceBook’s META announcement. Source:Arcane. Right: During last week’s epic Shiba Inu run up, other animal related tokens were inspired to rise 100’s of percents.
The number of Twitter followers of exchanges and related YouTube channels are growing faster
Weekly chart of $BTC, $ETH. Source: FTX
Source: GlassNode, TheBlockCrypto

Supercycle or hyperinflation?

Consumer price inflation according to ShadowStats.com has been 13% since November 2020
Google searches for the word Inflation since 2004. Source: Google Trends
  • Bitcoin’s inflation rate drops in 2024, it may have very little price impact as it goes from 1.8% to 0.9%, compared to a drop of 3.6% and 1.8% in the two previous halvings.
  • In prior cycles bitcoin on exchanges increased. As we’re nearing the end of the supply distribution, since March 2020 bitcoin has been leaving the exchanges.
Bitcoin’s on exchanges keeps getting closer to a 4 year low, with only 13% of supply available on exchanges
  • Most miners are now operated by larger companies with better access to capital. Today’s miners do not need to sell Bitcoins to finance themselves, and have less chance of experiencing halving-cycle capitulation.
  • To get a prolonged Bitcoin bear market you’ll need first high market euphoria., currently lacking. If the euphoria stage is met again in the following months, Alden believes that the next downturn will be shorter.

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