Egyptians and the dilemma of to coup or not to coup
It all started in 2012 after the end of presidential elections in Egypt that won the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate ‘Mohamed Morsi’ the honor of leading the most important country in the Middle East with its 90 Million citizens.
The first democratically elected president of Egypt only won the votes of ~51% of the Egyptians. he wasn't the kind of leader that most Egyptians dreamed of after their revolution, and after 60 years of living in a military ruled country.
The Muslim Brotherhood was well accepted as a partner during the first days of revolution, but they started to lose the trust of other Egyptians bit by bit each time they made another deal with SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) that was leading the country temporarily till the end of presidential elections.
SCAF wasn’t a big fan of the revolution, as it was a group of 19 military generals who were selected by Mubarak, the ousted president. still they were leading the most powerful organization in the country, and the Brotherhood was trying to win their trust to win their support in the parliamentary elections.
In the early days of revolution, the Brotherhood promised Egyptians that they won’t push a candidate to the presidential elections but they broke their promise, and pushed two candidates. the first one didn’t get accepted by the Supreme Committee for Elections for some legal reason, but the backup candidate made it through the elections to be later the president of Egypt.
The Muslim Brotherhood started in 1928. they fought against the old regime for more than 80 years and were the most experienced, and most organized opposition group during the revolution. the other opposition groups were too weak as Mubarak’s regime knew how to always make them like that. the Brotherhood was different as they were building their own closed society in Egypt; they weren’t like other political parties/groups.
Brotherhood members around the country live in groups. being a member of the Brotherhood meant that all your family is part of the Brotherhood, and they even have rules for marriage. a Brotherhood member should marry another member of the Brotherhood. this is how they maintained a closed culture, that kept them strong enough to survive against the different brutal attacks of the old regime.
The Brotherhood society was the main concern that arose right before the presidential elections. will Morsi, the new president treat all Egyptians the same; or will he just care about the society he grew up with?
The answer started to get clear after few months. the new president broke most of the promises he made during the elections and started to favor the Brotherhood over other Egyptians.
Combine that with the disastrous economical situation of the country during his first year as the president, and now you have millions of angry citizens. most of them don’t care about politics, but they care about simple things they can understand, like existence of water , electricity, gas, and the rising prices.
Tamarod (Rebel)
A new opposition movement called itself ‘Tamarod’ (Rebel); they started a campaign that succeeded to collect 22 million signatures on their petition to remove the president, and call for new early elections.
They called for rallies and protests around the country to take place on June 30 (exactly one year after Morsi assumed office), calling for early elections.
Millions took the streets of Egypt on June 30, including pro- and anti-Morsi rallies. the anti-Morsi group made it to Tahrir square where the Jan 25 revolution started. this is the square that gets most attention from world media.
Clashes started around the country between the pro- and anti-Morsi groups. tens of deaths and hundreds of injuries after the end of the first day, and a weak reaction from the president and government.
Anti-Morsi protesters started to raise the bar of their demands on the seconds day. now they want Morsi to resign, not justcall for new early elections.
By the mid of the second day, General Sisi, the new Chairman of SCAF, delivered an ultimatum that required Mohamed Morsi to resolve the political crisis in 48 hours, or the Army will suggest its own roadmap.
Now we are 48 hours away from a coup due to the demands of the anti-morsi protesters. will Morsi be able to make a good deal before the end of 48 hours? apparently not.
Morsi gave a strong speech at the same night that made the anti-Morsi protesters more angry, and was a motivator for more clashes between the anti- and pro- Morsi protesters. the result on the 3rd day was more deaths.
Later on the 4th day, and few hours before the end of the 48 hours, the presidency delivered a cooperative statement, announcing that they’re open for the idea of new early elections, and a new government, but it was too late.
At the same time, General Sisi was in meeting with a number of opposition leaders including the Nobel Peace Prize winner Mr.Baradei and was getting ready to announce the new road map.
The road map included that:
- Morsi is no more the president of Egypt
- The Chairman of the Supreme Court will be the interim president of Egypt till the new presidential elections
- Deactivating the current constitution that generated a lot of debates, and forming a committee to amend it
Everyone is happy in the streets, fireworks everywhere. at least this is what most TV channels broadcast.
This wasn’t the complete truth as more clashes started around the country. Brotherhood members were getting crazy as they felt betrayed.
On the international level, everyone was confused. is that a coup or a revolution? some news agencies called it a coup and what happened in Egypt is against democracy.
Some others said it’s a kind of civilian coup and it’s fine as the coup was an answer to the demands of millions of citizens taking the streets.
The African Union suspended Egypt for ousting Morsi. The White House is angry about what happened but Obama’s statement avoided the use of the word coup. USA and the Egyptian military are strategic allies, and saying that your most important ally in the Middle East just made a coup won’t be a smart action.
What about me? I was confused. I’m not a big fan of the Brotherhood, but I believed that taking Morsi down like that without giving him the chance to complete his 4 years will make a lot of trouble.
First, this will piss off most of the Islamist groups who will think that what happened is a war against Islam, and they must fight for their right that was taken by non-islamists with the support of SCAF.
Second, the chances that any future president will stay in power for more than one year will be near zero. what will happen if another X million citizens decide to take the streets demanding the resignation of every new president?!
Third, we’re taking the right of millions of other citizens who gave their votes to Morsi. this isn’t how democracy works.
The moment I knew that Morsi is no more the president was a mix of happiness and worry, and after few hours happiness disappeared and I ended up with confusion and worry.
Clashes everywhere, Brotherhood leaders are getting arrested without an announced reason, pro-Morsi Journalists are getting arrested, pro-Morsi TV channels are going dark and their stuff are getting arrested, Mubarak era leaders are happy and there are news that most of them are coming back to Egypt again.
Currently there’re millions of citizens taking the streets peacefully demanding that their democratically elected president should come back. this time it’s not only Islamists, it’s a mix of Islamists and non-Islamists who are trying to protect their rights.
They say that they voted for the president, and voted for the current version of constitution, and what the SCAF did is illegal and doesn’t respect their rights.
I think SCAF should have taken another approach to avoid all that. maybe a referendum on whether Morsi should continue as a president or not.
Yes, It won’t guarantee that everyone will be happy, but it would have saved the country a lot of national and international problems.
What about the future?
While a lot of Egyptians are happy about ousting Morsi, and while the Egyptian stock market is starting to do greatly well after that news, but these aren’t real indicators of anything about the future of Egypt. these are fake signs of a bright future, but the truth is yet to come in the coming few months.
