How Trump’s ‘Faux Populism’ is Driving AMLO’s Rise in Mexico as Latin America Begins Election Season
Trump’s wall is dividing the U.S. from more than just Mexico
Newton’s Third Law of Physics states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Our hemispheric neighbors’ reactions to Donald J. Trump’s uninformed, extremist, and egomaniacal presidency has ranged from cautious to downright confrontational. However, as The Economist observed, some of the region’s most populist voices have seen this movie before. “He’s trying to do what we did,” claimed former Argentina commerce secretary Guillermo Moreno pointing out Trump’s protectionist rhetoric.
“He’s a Peronist.”
Even Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at one point defended Trump from the “hate campaign” leveled at him — this, however, was before the Trump Administration blacklisted the Venezuelan vice president as a drug kingpin. But besides the tactics, the real question is what effect will Trump have in the Latin American body politic.
Half of the eighteen nations in Latin America will hold presidential elections over the next two years, catapulting many candidates who’ll use Trump as the boogey man, or El Coco. Already, we are seeing a repudiation of his policies and, more importantly, a rejection of leaders who have failed to stand up to Trump. “The wall that Trump intends to build is not with Mexico,” wrote former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos on the Chilean daily La Tercera.
“It is between the United States and Latin America. And if he persists, he must find us strong and united to say no to him.”
Lagos was an early contender for the Chilean presidency before bowing out due to the strong support for candidate Alejandro Guillier from the left.
Looking for the Anti-Trump Anti-Peña Nieto Candidate
In Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto, in a political tailspin as a result of rampant corruption, took a hit to his political solar plexus by failing to stand up to Trump at Los Pinos last August. Instead of publicly rebuking him, Peña Nieto played coy when addressing the wall at their joint press conference. A mass public demonstration in Mexico City on February 12 was the result, along with a rain of public opinion lashes. This, according to journalist Jesús Cantú, not only damaged the Mexican president, but also “exacerbated [Trump’s rhetoric] by perceiving the weakness of the Mexican government, the fear of the threats of the then-Republican candidate, and the degree of submission [Peña Nieto] was ready to reach.” Ever since that meeting, Peña Nieto’s poll numbers eroded even further, and have jeopardized his party’s hold on the presidency.
Smelling blood in the water, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is aggressively circling, repeatedly criticizing Peña Nieto for not defending the Mexican people and for “lacking the guts” to tell Trump to respect them. Even as Peña Nieto’s approval numbers rebounded after cancelling a meeting with Trump in January, a February poll had him at a dismal 17% and it hasn’t gotten much better since then. “The stars have aligned themselves in favor of Andrés Manuel López Obrador after trying unsuccessfully in 2006 and 2012,” wrote Jorge Zepeda Patterson in El País. “[H]is inner circle [is] convinced the third attempt will be the one.”
While a candidate like AMLO would be a godsend for Mexicans who feel neglected by the current occupant of Los Pinos, he is a controversial figure himself. He twice refused to accept electoral defeats, alleging fraud and voter corruption. The irony is not lost on anyone that Donald Trump’s combative style — and constant attacks on Mexico — has given López Obrador free reign to veer harder to the left, and have put him in pole position for the presidency. Zepeda writes: “Trump would surely consider López Obrador a bad hombre in the hypothetical case that he knew who he was. But, unknowingly, he has become [AMLO’s] best hope for election.” While this highly anticipated election won’t take place till 2018, there are several happening this year that could serve as barometers.
Let the Games Begin
Latin America’s first presidential contest in the Trump Era just occurred in Ecuador on April 2nd. Since the original Feb. 19 election failed to produce a win for Rafael Correa’s handpicked successor, Lenín Moreno, a run-off was scheduled for April 2nd. In that run-off, Moreno outlasted a disjointed effort by the right flank and defeated Guillermo Lasso by two points amid cries of irregularities. While Trump wasn’t a prominent figure in the election, Ecuadorians surely factored him as they decided on the type of leader to govern their country against a potentially hostile Washington.
“In addition to the aggressive attitude towards allies and main partners such as the European Union, what is closest to Latin America are the threats and bravado towards Mexico,” Andrés Vallejo wrote in Ecuador’s daily El Comercio. “The wall, an anachronism typical of the non-statesman, will not solve anything. It will exacerbate animosities, increase anti-Americanism, [and] foment Mexican nationalism.” While Trump wasn’t a prominent figure in the election, Ecuadorians surely factored him as they decided on the type of leader to govern their country against a potentially hostile Washington.
Honduras and Chile will also hold elections in 2017. The leading presidential candidates are former president Sebastián Piñera and TV-journalist-turned-senator Alejandro Guillier. Even as ex-president Lagos has been vocal in opposing President Trump’s policies, it appears Chileans have moved away from him. The latest polls have him drawing only 4% of support. Seeing an opening, Piñera has been quick to cement his center-right bona fides by touching on the thorny immigration issue. The former president said Chileans must be careful because “many criminal gangs are made up of foreigners,” and that Chile “must close its borders” to foreign criminal elements and “illegal immigration.”
Surely, no one likes to see organized crime in their country, but focusing on these aspects of immigration is a dog whistle for nativists and racist alike. For as much as it will give Piñera a boost in the short term — as it did for Netanyahu in Israel after claiming Arabs were voting “in droves” or Trump when he called Mexicans “rapists” or promised a Muslim ban — it will further widen the fissures currently dividing the West. Sensing his eerie similarities to Trumpian rhetoric, Piñera added “Trump is an absolutely separate case, he wants to deport 12 million people, wants to build a wall that separates Mexico from the United States. I do not want to build any wall and we do not want to deport any immigrants who are in Chile legally.”
Lastly, in Honduras, conservative Juan Orlando Hernández is the overwhelming favorite to hold on to the presidency. In a highly criticized move, which included objections from former president Mel Zelaya, the Honduran Supreme Court repealed Constitution Article 239 disallowing consecutive term re-election in 2015. That change, and subsequent reaffirmation by Honduras’ election tribunal (TSE), paved the way for Hernández’s second consecutive term.
Although his checkered past is a cause for concern, the lack of credible opposition candidates practically made re-election a foregone conclusion. While the homicide rate, among the highest globally, has dropped dramatically (30% over the past 4 years), he has been dogged by his lax handling of the murder of indigenous environmental activist Berta Cáceres along with 119 others killed since 2010. Hernández, however, is seen as an ally, and a victory would guarantee the continuation of a good working relationship between Tegucigalpa and Washington.
From Appetizer to Main Course
The 2017 presidential contests in Latin America will be an appetizer for the main course in 2018 as Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela all head to the polls. Early signs point to a strong anti-Trump sentiment permeating the region as his policies begin to garner more media attention and candidates are forced to take positions. President Trump’s faux populism — campaigning in populist tones as single-payer healthcare; “taking care of everybody” even if it cost him votes; and claiming to “drain the swap” — is at odds with the plutocratic staffing of his cabinet. He has surrounded himself with the same corporate and establishment elites he derided. His foreign policy team has been weakened by Russian links, including the State Department, which has been rendered useless by a toothless Secretary of State who has admitted he never really wanted the job.
Early on his relationship with Latin America has been nonexistent –aside from the “wall” rhetoric — but it will behoove him to pay attention considering Beijing’s charm offensive in the region since 2013. According to a report by The Dialogue and the Global Economic Governance Initiative, 2016 was the “third highest year on record” since Beijing started lending to Latin America in 2005, far outpacing the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank. Total lending surpassed $141 billion, namely to Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, and to a lesser extent Bolivia — all countries with patchy relationships with Washington.
Considering the lack of interest shown by Washington, it will be interesting to see how China’s financial commitment, coupled with an anti-Trump sentiment, affects the region’s relationship with the United States. A continued “tough guy” approach from the U.S. could just expand a vacuum the Chinese would gladly fill, further distancing Washington from its neighbors to the South.
