Elegran Brooklyn Market Update: January 2023
Overall Brooklyn Market Update: January 2023
Brooklyn Market Update: A Pendulum Stuck on the High Side
The chart of Brooklyn below is so incredible, there appears to be an error in the data.
Only there’s not. Demand for Brooklyn since mid-July 2020 is simply jaw dropping. Using once again our pendulum reference, imagine it is pulled to the left and you watch as it swings to the right. Expecting it to swing back to the left, you watch in amazement — and utter confusion — as it swings to equilibrium, stops, and swings back to the right. Not once, but four more times.
That describes Brooklyn demand since the pandemic began in NYC. Whereas demand for Manhattan is trending at –20% (compared to its pre-pandemic average), Brooklyn is performing at +60%.
We glean from the chart directly below that, like the previous month, December’s total supply is low compared to the two previous years. However, those years are atypical and total supply has actually been quite steady throughout 2022. New supply, too, is lower than this time last year, yet the seasonal decrease is normal. Note: “Total Supply” refers to inventory on the market at a given time. “New Supply” refers to new inventory listed during a specific time period.
Brooklyn Buyer Activity
As previously highlighted, demand for Brooklyn (as measured by signed contracts) has been white hot. Since recovering from the COVID-induced trough in mid-July 2020, the weekly number of contracts signed in the borough have averaged nearly 60% more than their pre-pandemic average (defined as Jan 5, 2015 to Mar 1, 2020).
Brooklyn Market Pulse
Elegran’s Leverage Indicator informs us whether the current is a buyer’s or a seller’s market; i.e, which party possesses transactional leverage. Looking at the graph below, this is indicated by the direction of trendlines. Our indicator also informs us regarding the relative strength of that leverage, indicated by the slope of the trendlines. Per below, Brooklyn is in the grips of a buyer’s market, but we see a change in trend direction building, suggesting that a transition to a seller’s market is on the horizon.
Price/sf & Discounts
Closed sales data is still rolling in and will be for the next few months; however, barring any significant changes, the chart below informs us that price/sf in Brooklyn is within striking distance of its all-time high reached in 2017.
As the chart below illustrates, sanguine demand for Brooklyn has kept median listing discount relatively muted, remaining below the 5% level since 2011.
What this means for…
- Although our indicator suggests that Brooklyn is still a buyer’s market, it appears that a change in direction — i.e., a transition to a seller’s market — is imminent. It’s time to move forward with those purchases as prices and supply are moving against you.
- Because we believe a seller’s market is on the horizon, it’s time to shift focus from moving hastily to being patient and demanding more from buyers.
- A resistance level was reached over the summer that forced rents to cool off. That being said, they’re still not far from recent records. Although waning buyer demand may cause purchase prices to cool too, high mortgage rates still tip the rent versus buy scale for many towards leasing.
- Mortgage rates have let the air out of cap rates, but cash buyers can still source opportunities on account of near record rents.
- Brooklyn continues to present relative value compared to national markets that experienced steep price appreciation over the last 24-months, now overheated with little to no room for near-term growth.
Please contact us if you would like to learn more …
Our goal is simple: to humanize the world of real estate. Michael Rossi founded Elegran in 2008 on the dual premise of motivation and innovation, with a third sustaining principle added over the years: care. Unique in the industry as an independently owned brokerage with agents known as “advisors” and a data-centered approach, the firm has become a key player in the New York brokerage world. The exclusive NYC member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network, Elegran oversaw well over $500 million in sales volume in 2019, tripled market share in 2020 and sold US $1B in 2021.Headquartered in the center of Manhattan, Elegran is solely dedicated to serving the incomparable needs of the New York City metropolitan region. For more information about Elegran, visit www.elegran.com.