Elegran Brooklyn Market Update: March 2023
Brooklyn Market Update: Buyer’s Market Remains Strongly in Place
This month, with data pointing in numerous directions, we aim to provide our agents and their clients with a sense of whether the current is a buyer’s or seller’s market. Our leverage indicator, designed to do just that, considers three inputs: supply, demand, and price/sf. Supply numbers are difficult to gauge without a large amount of historical data; demand is strong and price/sf is weakening. The indicator suggests Brooklyn remains a strong buyer’s market, confirmed, we believe, by significant month-over-month and year-over-year increases in median listing discount and days on market.
Brooklyn Supply
Not surprisingly, total supply this February is lower than the past two, when sellers showed up in force to meet the post-COVID release of demand. However, we suggest that pre-COVID 2020 is a better gauge of “normal” supply data and we are a bit on the high side currently, as we learn from the chart directly below.
The second chart, which features new supply, is helpful only in that it confirms the point made above: that, last year at this time, sellers met the robust post-COVID demand by listing a large amount of inventory.
Brooklyn Buyer Activity
Since mid-2020, demand for Brooklyn, as measured by weekly contracts, has remained above its pre-pandemic average. It’s incredible that the historical norm has become the new support level. Whenever demand trends toward that support level, it bounces off to another high, just as it did at the turn of the year. Last month, we proposed the question, “Can buyers create a 6th straight demand spike?” This month, we have our answer. “Yes,” as the chart below clearly shows.
Brooklyn Market Pulse
Elegran’s Leverage Indicator informs us whether the current is a buyer’s or a seller’s market; i.e., which party possesses transactional leverage. Looking at the graph below, this is indicated by the direction of trendlines. Our indicator also informs us about the relative strength of that leverage, indicated by the slope of the trendlines.
Per below, Brooklyn is in the grips of a buyer’s market, confirmed, we believe, by the significant M-O-M and Y-O-Y increases in both median listing discount and days on market, plus the declining price/sf. However, we potentially see a change in trend direction building as the slope of the line continues to flatten, suggesting that a transition to a seller’s market could be on the horizon.
Price/sf & Discounts
Closed sales data is still rolling in and will be for the next few months. However, barring any significant changes, the chart below tells us that price/sf in Brooklyn is falling rather quickly, and is now on the lower end of the metric over the past six years.
Listing discounts in Brooklyn are nearly at the same level as they were when they peaked during the pandemic era, lending credibility to our Leverage Indicator’s suggestion that a strong buyer’s market is still in effect within the borough.
What this means for…
Buyers:
- Brooklyn continues to be a buyer’s market, meaning buyers should be rewarded for their patience.
- We see signs of a weakening buyer’s market, but future decreases in mortgage rates should bolster demand and force the transition to a seller’s market.
Sellers:
- A buyer’s market suggests that sellers should move forward quickly, but hope is on the horizon as the Fed begins to change its hawkish stance on rates.
- Sellers who are betting that prices will strengthen in the near future should consider leasing in the meantime as rents have decreased a bit, but are still historically very high.
Renters:
- A resistance level was reached over the summer that forced rents to cool. That being said, they’re still very high. But so are asking prices. Plus, 6.7% mortgage rates still tip the rent-versus-buy scale in favor of leasing.
Investors:
- Mortgage rates have let the air out of leveraged cap rates, but cash buyers can still source opportunities on account of near-record rents.
- On the sell side, a relatively strong USD affords foreign investors (depending on their native currency) the opportunity to yield significant capital gains upon the sale of their asset.
- On the buy side, the weakening dollar creates opportunities for foreigners to purchase Brooklyn real estate and capitalize on its notorious market stability and potential for price appreciation.
If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.
About Us
Our goal is simple: to humanize the world of real estate. Michael Rossi founded Elegran in 2008 on the dual premise of motivation and innovation, with a third sustaining principle added over the years: care. Unique in the industry as an independently owned brokerage with agents known as “advisors” and a data-centered approach, the firm has become a key player in the New York brokerage world. The exclusive NYC member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network, Elegran oversaw well over $500 million in sales volume in 2019, tripled market share in 2020 and sold US $1B in 2021. Headquartered in the center of Manhattan, Elegran is solely dedicated to serving the incomparable needs of the New York City metropolitan region. For more information about Elegran, visit www.elegran.com.
