Elegran Insights
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Elegran Insights

Elegran Insights: Weekly Manhattan & Brooklyn Market

Week of 06/27/22

Photo by Yoav Aziz on Unsplash

Real estate activity is normalizing after a period of unsustainable activity and this shift has been quick, due in part to the sharp overall rise in interest rates [rates did decrease slightly this past week].

June 22 marked the two year anniversary of the end of the COVID lockdown phase and in-person real estate activities were allowed to begin again in NYC. We’d like to take a moment to reflect on the overall trajectory that the sale and rental market took over the last two years.

After the lockdown ended, rental and sale inventory flooded the market in the initial weeks and the rental and sales market experienced a bump in contract and lease activity due to the pent-up demand that had accrued. Both the Manhattan sales and rental market experienced record-setting contract and lease volumes in Spring 2021. In 2022, the rental market was held in check by rising rental prices, limited supply and new-to-market inventory. The sales market in Q1 2022 matched the contract volume seen in Q1 2021, but began to fall behind 2021’s pace in Q2.

In the face of rising interest rates and continued economic uncertainty, the sales market is normalizing and contract volume is returning to seasonal patterns and more closely matching 2019’s volume, as detailed below. Q1 2022 can now be identified as the peak of the current market, in terms of both liquidity and prices, as both are normalizing in the short-term.

Who benefits the most from today’s market? All-cash investors have an opportunity to purchase today with more negotiating power than they had a few short months ago and realize a larger return on investment as rents continue to increase.

Strong rental prices can create a backstop for the sales market, as it creates both demand for investors to purchase property and rising rents can make renting less attractive in a rent vs buy analysis despite rising interest rates.

Programming Note: As seasonality is returning to the market, starting this week the year-over-year comparisons will now be 2022 vs. 2019. Comparing to 2019 will provide a more practical perspective on how today’s market is performing.

Manhattan Supply remained virtually unchanged this week at 6,412 units as 363 new listings came to market, 15% less than last week and 27% more compared to the same week in 2019. Supply is poised to trend downward, as is seasonally normal, through the summer.

Brooklyn Supply decreased 2% to 2,770 units as 227 new listings came to market, 2% less than last week and 86% more than the same week in 2019. Supply is poised to trend downward, as is seasonally normal, through the summer.

Manhattan Pending Sales decreased 1% to 4,649 this week.

Manhattan Pending Sales

Brooklyn Pending Sales remained flat this week at 3,272.

Brooklyn Pending Sales

Manhattan Contracts Signed — 221 contracts were signed this week. This represents a 7% decrease from last week and a 5% increase from the same week in 2019.

Brooklyn Contracts Signed — 154 contracts were signed this week. This represents a 13% decrease from last week and a 40% increase from the same week in 2019.

New Development Insights

As reported by Marketproof, this week, 61 new development contracts were reported across 37 buildings. The following were the top selling new developments of the week:

  • The Cortland in West Chelsea
  • 208 Delancey Street on the Lower East Side
  • The Lexi in Kips Bay
  • The Tower at Gramercy Square in Gramercy Park
  • 532 Clinton Avenue in Clinton Hill

Please contact me if you would like to learn more about these, or other new developments.

We will continue sharing the Elegran Insights data analysis with you every week.

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Elegran Real Estate

Elegran Real Estate

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