The Rising Tides In The Western Conference
By Vinay Killawala
The landscape of how basketball is measured continues to evolve as technology continues to become smarter. For at least a decade now the use of analytics has continued to not only measure the success of teams and players, it is now being used in more of a predictive fashion. Points per possession, positional effectiveness, pass vs shoot rates, and all the different metrics both basic and advanced provide a frame of reference to the game. It’s in those metrics that analysts look to try and solve the riddle of how to win a championship.
More spacing! Shoot more threes! No, not you! Pass it to someone else!
It makes sense that phenomenon is happening because of the data driven nature of the sport. As media and “basketball analysts” continue to use (and misuse) data to predict success in hoops, this sort of issue will continue. But there is a blind spot for the folks who look at just post endless amounts of statistics so they can gain followings and hopefully monetize their basketball intellectualism. In other words, trying to get the bag being a “smart ass.”
There is an unquantifiable aspect to the game of basketball.
An invisible flow of energy that transfers between teammates that you can only understand when a player on your favorite team feels like telling you about it. There are players in this league that when put into the correct situation have an impact greater than their statistical success allows you to understand.
You can’t see it, but it's there.
This off-season had many franchises looking to satisfy specific needs they had, but also to help take another step towards solving that championship riddle.
There is an economic aphorism popularized by John F Kennedy that helps better understand what that invisible force is:
“A rising tide lifts all boats”
With the shortened free agency period and the pandemic still making it improbable to have fans in arenas anytime soon, the importance of adding players that help preserve continuity on the court and off the court during the season is important. If anything, having players who bring aboard specific types of personality and competitiveness could be the difference between a playoff spot and a contender.
A Reunion Under A Rising Sun
The age defying dynamics of LeBron James continue to be something to behold, but one of his banana related brethren also has continued to have a very productive career despite his advanced age.
Chris Paul being traded to the Suns represents an important shift in what is going on in Phoenix. Despite the Suns excellent play led by Devin Booker’s heroics in the bubble environment, Phoenix fell short of the playoffs in Monty William’s inaugural year as head coach.
Bringing the ever steady and competitive Paul on board brings a level of stability and scoring production from the Suns lead guard position that they have not had in a while. Combine that with the familiarity and success Chris had in a previous tenure with Monty Williams, and you can see how Paul would serve as an extension of the coaching staff on the floor.
That “rising tide” impact Chris Paul displays takes place when you compare what happened with the Thunder vs what happened with the Suns when looking at specific lineups.
Last season for the Suns, when Rubio & Ayton shared the floor with Booker, the Suns recorded a NetRTG of +9.8 but without Booker that number plummeted to a -14.8
That drop off is problematic by any measure of success. When you compare what Chris Paul did with a less offensively gifted big man in Steven Adams, you can see what sort of impact Chris will have on that team.
Last season for the Thunder when Paul & Adams shared the floor with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder recorded a +5.0 NetRTG and when he sat, the team increased their NetRTG to +8.8
For the Thunder, having a runner-up 6MOY in Dennis Schroder helped keep that bench productive, which is something that the Suns don’t have. It will be interesting to see how the Paul keeps this competitive Suns team aggressive through the marathon of the season. There should be no doubt though that like he has his entire career, Paul will help guide this Suns team through any dry spells with his heady play.
A Steady Presence In Portlandia
The swap of Trevor Ariza for Robert Covington was more of a surprise because of the return that the Rockets would bring back (two 1st Round picks to Houston) than the actual addition for the Blazers. Covington represents a specific type of role player that they have not had since Wes Matthews. Covington is one of the league's top “3 and D” role players and brings a level of versatility and stability that was sorely needed.
The emergence of Gary Trent Jr last season made it easier for the Blazers to space the floor for their scoring backcourt of McCollum and Lillard. With Covington now on board, the Blazers can now place two accomplished three point shooters on the wings while preserving the defensive tenacity they need to be successful.
Covington was one of two players in the playoffs last season to shoot 50% or better from three (min 50 attempts). The only other player was Donovan Mitchell.
The “rising tide” impact involving Covington doesn’t just come from his on the court skills. It comes from his availability as a player. Out of his seven seasons in the league, Covington has played in 67 or more games in all except one (excluding his rookie season). Last playoffs, the Blazers were forced to go small with Trent Jr and shuffle in and out Carmelo Anthony and Wenyen Gabriel to offset the loss of Zach Collins and Rodney Hood. That sort of durability should afford Portland a luxury they have not had out of their wing position in some time.
A Scoring Punch Under The Spotlights
The Lakers struck first in the off-season when they traded Danny Green for Dennis Schroder addressing their most important positional need from last season. Schroder has gone from starter to sixth man and looks to return to a starting role for the Lakers this upcoming season. Last season the primary back up ball handler responsibilities fell on Rajon Rondo and despite his much improved play in the playoffs, the regular still left much to be desired.
In the regular season lineups with Rondo, James, and Davis recorded a -5.2 Net Rating for the Lakers. That number exploded in the playoffs as the trio recorded a +12.0 Net Rating. With the bubble environment further solidifying the “Playoff Rondo” nickname, there is some belief that the increase in success had more to do with Anthony Davis’ absurd shooting splits than Rondo’s improved play.
In the playoffs, Schroder ranked in the 73rd percentile of all Pick & Roll — Ball Handlers, which should in theory pair very well with another newly acquired Laker, Montrezl Harrell who ranked in the 81st percentile as a Pick and Roll — Roll Man.
The overall scoring and playmaking talent from Dennis should create a “rising tide” effect for all the Laker bench players like Alex Caruso & Kyle Kuzma who no longer will have to carry any sort of scoring or playmaking burden.
A Roster Of Tough Guys To Flank The Future
With a clear cut superstar and star in tow, the Dallas Mavericks prioritized increasing the quality of defenders on their roster this offseason. Josh Richardson, James Johnson, and even Wes Iwundu help strengthen a Mavs team that needed more players with physical dispositions after seeing them struggle with containing talented wings in the playoffs.
The combination of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis already created enough offensive firepower, and Luka’s fearless performance in the first round against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George made it clear that their offensive philosophy was in good hands.
Stocking the roster with aggressive defenders that bring a defense first philosophy has a “rising tide” effect on the entire team’s personality. Teams that looked to be physical and rough with rising MVP candidate on the defensive end will be met with the same nastiness courtesy of the recent additions.
The additions should improve upon important disruption metrics for the Mavericks who ranked third worst in the Deflections and tied for the worst in Steals as team last season.
A Change Of Identity For The Better
The Rockets finally moved on from their data driven offensive philosophy purported by former head coach Mike D’antoni and championed by former GM Daryl Morey. After repeated failures in closing out series and early playoff exits, the Rockets moved on to new head coach Stephen Silas, who sat on the bench of the Dallas Mavericks last season that featured a very similar yet less predictable offense philosophy.
In a surprising departure, the Rockets swapped Russell Westbrook for John Wall, which many presume may be a lateral or potential downgrade depending on Wall’s health. Even outside the star laden trade, the Rockets look to have made one of the more interesting upside signings of the offseason by nabbing up and coming forward Christian Wood.
The 6’10’’ big man recorded monster stat lines after getting a chance to collect real minutes for the Pistons last year and should bring mutual benefit to both Wall and Harden as a floor spacing four or even a stretch 5.
It still remains to be seen what sort of offense coach Silas will run, but moving even slightly towards a more traditional style offense should lead to less offensive predictability which should enable the all world scoring Harden to avoid late season burnout.
Last season the Rockets offensive rating dropped significantly from 112.5 in the regular season to 107.7 in the playoffs which was the worst of any team that made past the first round of the playoffs.
As everyone awaits to see what new backcourt mate John Wall looks like after a long injury related hiatus, the shift in coaching philosophy should bring a “rising tide” effect to the amount of variance in the offense play calling.
