32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 23
World Cup Preview: Sweden
Without arguably their best player in history, a Zlatan-less Sweden has made it to the biggest stage nonetheless. Perhaps with less star power but more team-centric than before, they’ll have to continue proving that they can win without him to survive a tough group.
The Road So Far:
Sweden was handed the tough task of navigating Europe’s most top-heavy Qualifiers group in order to make it to the World Cup. With one automatic spot to fight for, they were drawn together with France and Holland. They finished four points behind the French, but with a better goal-difference than the Dutch, sending shockwaves felt around the world by eliminating a World Cup regular. Then in the Round of 16, they did it again with an even bigger upset, leaving Italy out for just the second time in their history. As if determined by fate, Italy had only ever failed to qualify once: 60 years ago, when the tournament had been hosted by Sweden, and the locals had finished in second place.
Throughout the group stage, Sweden was the only nation capable of beating France. The absence of Zlantan Ibrahimovic seemed to have very little of an impact on their ability to score, with their 26 goals more than enough to top the group — France scored 18 and the Netherlands 21. Veteran Marcus Berg led the way, striking 8 times and topping the goal scorers table within their pool. Emil Forsberg, arguably Sweden’s best since Zlatan’s departure, had 4.
The Road Ahead:
The Swedes suffered a pair of losses in March to Chile and Romania in March, before a draw against Denmark on the weekend. They have a game against Peru left to get back on track.
In Group F they have giants Germany, as well as a talented Mexican side. South Korea, the fourth and final squad, won’t be a particularly easy match either. Coach Janne Andersson will expect a win against South Korea in their opening game, and would be thrilled if they can squeeze a point out from Germany afterwards. Their final match against El Tri will likely be what determines if they gain a place in the Round of 16.
Talent-wise, the Mexicans seem to have a bit of an advantage. The casual soccer fan wouldn’t recognize many names on Sweden’s 23-man list. Alternatively, it’s difficult to bet against the team responsible for the demise of the Netherlands — a side that finished Top 3 at the previous two World Cups — and the Italians — a country that’s won it all on four different occasions.
Thus far, the key has been hard work and a tight structure. How much will Sweden be able to frustrate Germany and Mexico? Intuition seems to indicate contenders Germany will not be able to be kept at bay, but it’ll be entirely possible to keep a clean sheet against the Mexicans. Ideally, they’ll get a first victory and the hold the Germans to a draw, taking lots of pressure of that last fixture; by then, another draw could potentially be enough.
The men responsible for staving off attacks includes captain Andreas Granqvist, Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof, Swansea’s Martin Olsson, and Celtic full-back Mikael Lustig. Also available are Leeds United’s Pontus Jansson and Werder Bremen’s Ludwig Augustinsson. The backline conceded a decent total of 9 goals through qualifying, and more impressively held Italy scoreless through both playoff legs.
In the middle of the park they will look primarily to Forsberg pulling the strings, but will ideally have solid performances from the likes of Toulouse-based Jimmy Durmaz and Hull City’s Sebastian Larsson. Ahead, Berg will be the main target. Durmaz’s teammate Ola Toivonen scored three times in qualifying, and is a solid secondary option.
Regrettably, even if Sweden bests Mexico for second place in the group, it’ll likely mean that they have to go through Brazil to get any further. Unless Brazil let’s top spot slip from their grasp in their own group, this is going to be an uphill battle the entire way.
Best Case Scenario:
Sweden is no fluke. Without a singular star to take the team and public’s attention, the chemistry they’ve formed goes a long way. After taking beginning their tournament with a win over South Korea, they stymie the Germans to a 0–0 draw. Knowing Mexico must absolutely win their last game, they again lock things down defensively. A tie gives them second place. An upset in Group E allows them to avoid Brazil, and opens the door for the Swedes. For the fifth time in history, they make a run all the way to the Semi Final, before losing to France.
Worst Case Scenario:
The goals dry up, and without Zlatan, there’s no one to step up for any magical moments. They don’t concede, but they also don’t score. South Korea is a draw, setting up a very difficult final two games. After losing to Germany, they have no choice but to defeat Mexico. In a desperate attempt to finally find some goal scoring, the structure that makes Sweden great stretches and cracks. As a result, it’s the Mexicans who score instead, and eventually take the win. Having worked so hard to participate, a single point and an early exit are extremely disappointing.
Final Prediction:
Soccer is a team sport. I’ve seen what a group of extremely talented individuals can become if they don’t work well together. This team is the opposite; they may be lacking in star power, but they make up for it in teamwork. Most people seem to give Mexico the edge for second place in Group F, and it makes sense, but Mexico didn’t have to go through the Netherlands and Italy to qualify. Getting past the Round of 16 is asking a bit much, but in terms of surviving the group, I give Sweden my vote.
