32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 25
World Cup Preview: Belgium
Some may look at Belgium and be reminded of Argentina — a group of sublimely talented individuals that have collectively fallen just short of expectations when brought together. After Quarter Final appearances at the last World Cup, and again at Euro 2016, Belgium hopes that this is the year they make complete use of their talent.
The Road So Far:
Although the opening statement is true, don’t get me wrong: Belgium is not Argentina.
For starters, they certainly feature a lot more skill on defense — Vincent Kompany, Jan Vetonghen, and Toby Alderweireld outclass Nicolás Otamendi, Federico Fazio, and Nicolás Tagliafico. Likewise, they have an undisputed top class goalie in Thibaut Courtois, in contrast to Argentina’s mess in net. Their 6 goals allowed in qualifying was a fairly average total, but they also had 6 clean sheets in the 10-game stretch. There are certainly still some very big concerns at the back — there’s the terrible record of injuries for Kompany, no reliable replacements if Veronghen and/or Alderweireld go down, as well as a general sense of disorganization. All this, yet they’re still probably better off than the Argentines — at least in that area of the pitch.
Previous disappointments have been attributed to poor management. Former Everton boss Roberto Martinez currently runs the show, and he’s been working hard to ensure that he breaks the pattern. Since taking charge shortly after Euro 2016, he’s only lost once; his first game on the sidelines was a 2–0 defeat to Spain in a friendly.
Returning to the differences, and continuing from the previous point, Belgium had absolutely no trouble in qualifying for the World Cup. They went undefeated in their group and in fact broke records, racking up 28 points and scoring 43 goals.
Finally — and most notably — Belgium’s core is younger than Argentina’s and therefore has a bigger window for success. Argentina has an average squad age of 29.3 — the fourth highest at the tournament. Messi, Di Maria, Mascherano and Higuaín are all 30 or over. Belgium’s 27.6 is in the lower half, with Courtois, Marouane Fellaini, Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne all in their mid-20s. The Red Devils will want to take advantage of this sooner rather than later.
The Road Ahead:
Throughout (and since) their scorching run in Qualifiers, Belgium had had some less favourable results — draws against Russia, Mexico and Portugal — but overall they’ve maintained a streak of 16 games without losing. They play a final preparatory match against Costa Rica next Monday, hoping to head to Russia with the record intact.
Outside of hosts Russia, Martinez’s side has arguably the easiest group from all Pot 1 participants. Their biggest worry will be England, who has a long and painful record of underachieving — much worse than that of either Argentina or the Belgians themselves. Things will begin nice and easy with a game against debutants Panama. Things may be a little tougher against Tunisia, but the Red Devils will still be heavy favourites. England is reserved for the last round of group stage matches, where again the odds will be in Belgium’s favour. Things escalate fairly quickly afterwards; their potential Round of 16 opponent would be Colombia, or perhaps Poland — both tough outings. Either Brazil or Germany would wait for them afterwards.
There shouldn’t be too much trouble through the Group Stage. The abovementioned backline won’t be too threatened by their opponents in the first three games. England is the only team that may give them trouble, with top Premier League talent dotting the top half of its lineup. On the flip side, Vertonghen and Alderweireld — along with Kompany if healthy — will be familiar with the English forwards and will know how to best handle them.
Along the same vein, Fellaini, Hazard and De Bruyne, next to Tottenham’s Mousa Dembele, will almost certainly outplay opposition in the first two matches, before facing off against a line of players they’ll know well — whether as teammates or regular rivals.
Like Germany, some question Belgium’s topmost line, but — also like Germany — it’d be silly to imply goal scoring issues for a side that scored 43 goals in 10 matches. As is the case with their neighbours to the east, a potent midfield will pitch in plenty, and the options in attack are nothing to cry about. Romelu Lukaku was not quite as sharp this season for Manchester United in the way he was for Everton last year, yet that didn’t stop him from finding the net 11 times in qualifying, making him Belgium’s all-time goal scoring leader. Napoli’s Dries Mertens is still serviceable, and of course Hazard has the ability to play further up the pitch. If not, Nacer Chadli is another winger who could be deployed in an attacking position.
Against Colombia/Poland things will get much more interesting, and if they hope to make the Semi Final for the first time since 1986, they’ll need everyone in top form to defeat either the Brazilians or Germans.
Best Case Scenario:
The backline sorts itself out and stays healthy. Courtois is excellent in the few cases that he’s called upon. Begium cruises through the Group Stage, before a much more difficult test against Poland. At last announcing their arrival, they stun Brazil and France next. In the end, they falter in their last step, beaten by Germany in the Final.
Worst Case Scenario:
Things look pretty good with two wins in their first two matches, but the defensive problems start to disrupt the team’s structure. A draw against England sees them drop to second on goal difference. Struggling to keep things together, Colombia takes advantage and eliminated them in the Round of 16.
Final Prediction:
This team should top its group fairly easily and make the Quarter Finals in back-to-back tournaments, but both Brazil and Germany — whichever it is — will stop them from making their jump to elite status. I’ve been telling people to keep an eye on Belgium for years, and they haven’t really made good on my promise, so I’m not making any bold statements about them this year (watch them end up winning it all).
