32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 27

World Cup Preview: Tunisia

There are two very clear Group G favourites, and Tunisia is not one of them. Having never made it out of the Group Stage and with a squad lacking in star power, the Eagles of Carthage will have to work extremely hard if they want to finally make the Round of 16.

The Road So Far:

A couple of 2–1 victories over Mauritania preceded a two-legged round robin with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Libya, and and Guinea, in which they finished ahead of Congo DR by a point. With Congo DR trailing by 3 points going into the final match, a draw against Libya was sufficient to sustain their hold on first place.

Coach Nabil Maâloul was in charge for four of the last six matches. The former manager, Henryk Kasperczak, saw through the first two games before being dismissed. Although qualifying had gotten off to a good start, falling to Burkina Faso in the Quarter Final of the 2017 African Cup of Nations was deemed unacceptable, and the coaching change took place.

Youssef Msakni, playing his football at Qatar’s Al-Duhail, led the team in scoring with 3. All of his tallies were scored in an important away win against Guinea. Often carrying the team, a recent knee injury ruled him out of the World Cup, and could be catastrophic for the African side. Rennes’ Wahbi Khazri was the only other player to score multiple goals, once in the first leg against Mauritania and then from the spot in the away fixture against Libya (played in Algeria due to the Libyan Civil War).

The Road Ahead:

Tunisia played Spain today to a close 1–0 loss, which will spark a bit of hope in terms of being competitive in their matches against England and Belgium. Their final game pits them against Panama, where the playing field should be much more level.

With Msakni absent, Maâloul will turn to forward Khazri to carry the nation on his shoulders. Increased responsibility will also fall upon two French-based players: Troyes’s Saif-Eddine Khaoui and Montpellier’s Ellyes Skhiri will be expected to fill the void left in the middle and replicate Msakni’s creativity. While they facilitate the playmaking, Ferjani Sassi and Mohamed Amine Ben Amor will be tasked with winning the ball back in defensive situations.

Speaking of defense, while it’s common for weaker sides to employ a conservative strategy and attempt to capitalize on counter-attacks, Maâloul approaches the game rather aggressively. Expect a 4–2–3–1 formation where the fullbacks function more like wingbacks, and are often seen pushing up the field. Ali Maâloul of Egypt’s Al Ahly will be a key player playing down the lines. Valencia’s Aymen Abdennour (on loan at Marseille), and Leicester City’s Yohan Benalouane will protect the box at the center back positions.

Ahead, Khazri will look for help from Naïm Sliti, one of the many French-born players on the squad, currently on loan to Dijon from Lille.

Managing a result against England — whether a draw or win — would be a massive boost to Tunisia’s chances. Against Belgium things look pretty tough. If England loses to Belgium on the last day, a win for Maâloul’s men over Panama could potentially see them through in second place. On the other side they’d be waiting for Group H winners, one of Poland, Colombia, Senegal or Japan.

Best Case Scenario:

In classic English fashion, a blunder gifts Tunisia the first goal of their opening match. With momentum on their side, they strike again and hold their lead for the rest of the way. Belgium has far too many weapons to be contained, and so their record is evened at one win and a loss. During the final round of matches, a Belgian win, coupled with Tunisia’s victory over Panama, sees them advance to the Round of 16 for the first time in history. A talented Colombian side sends them home, but the 23-man team is happy to have accomplished a first for their nation.

Worst Case Scenario:

With an opening loss to England, the odds are heavily stacked against Tunisia to progress. The focus becomes to win a match, having not met that at the previous three World Cups that they participated in. It quickly becomes clear that it won’t happen against Belgium, and Panama fights them to a draw. For the fourth time in a row, they go home with a single point.

Final Prediction:

Good results have Tunisia in 21st place in the FIFA rankings; in May they made it all the way up to 14th, which was a historic high. Still, it’s been mentioned in this series before that the FIFA rankings are badly skewed, and so I think we’re in for a run similar to what we saw from Tunisia in ’98, ’02, and ’06: mixed performances that generally result in defeats against the two group favourites and a draw against a more evenly matched third team; in this case, losses to England and Belgium before a tie against Panama.